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Forbes estimates Jan. 2 mass attack cost Russia nearly $620 million

Russian forces launched at least 99 missiles of various types and 35 Shahed "kamikaze" drones against Ukraine on Jan. 2, costing Russia nearly $620 million, Forbes estimated .

Russia’s large-scale coordinated missile attack targeted Kyiv, the surrounding region, and Kharkiv on the morning of Jan. 2. It was preceded by a wave of Shahed drones. The attack killed five people and injured 127, including children, according to the latest update by the State Emergency Service.

The Air Force reported earlier that Ukraine intercepted all of the drones and 72 Russian missiles , including 59 Kh-101/555/55 cruise missiles, three Kalibr cruise missiles, and all of the 10 Kh-47M2 Kinzhal air-launched ballistic missiles. Russian forces also used 12 ballistic missiles of the Iskander/S-300/S-400 type and four Kh-31P anti-radar missiles.

Forbes calculated the cost based on the estimates that one Russian Kh-101 cruise missile costs $13 million, a Kalibr cruise missile costs $ 6.5 million, a Kinzhal ballistic missile costs $15 million, an Iskander costs $3 million, and one Shahed 136 drone costs $50,000, among others.

"Due to the fact that the precise distribution of missiles by type remains unknown, Forbes estimates their total cost at approximately $620 million," the media wrote.

Read also: UPDATED: Russia launches mass missile strikes against Kyiv, Kharkiv

We’ve been working hard to bring you independent, locally-sourced news from Ukraine. Consider supporting the Kyiv Independent .

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  • Missiles of the World

Kh-101 / Kh-102

The Kh-101 / Kh-102 is a line of conventional and nuclear capable air-launched cruise missiles (ALCM) developed and deployed by Russia. A stealthy missile, the Kh-101/-102 is designed to defeat air defense systems by flying at low, terrain-hugging altitudes to avoid radar systems. The Kh-101 carries a conventional warhead, while the Kh-102 is believed to carry a 250 kt nuclear payload.

Kh-101 / Kh-102 at a Glance

russian cruise missile cost

Kh-101 / Kh-102 Development

Kh-101 / kh-102 specifications, service history.

Since entering service in 2012, the Russian air force has employed the Kh-101 several times in combat operations.

  • Andrei Akulov, “Russian Kh-101 Air to Surface Cruise Missile: Unique and Formidable,” Strategic Culture , October 19, 2016, https://www.strategic-culture.org/news/2016/10/19/russian-kh-101-air-to-surface-cruise-missile-unique-and-formidable.html.
  • “Kh-101/-102” in IHS Jane’s Weapons: Strategic 2015-2016, ed. James C O’Halloran (United Kingdom: IHS, 2016), 189.
  • Ibid; Russian Ministry of Defense, “Strategic Tu-95MS bombers destroyed the ISIS militants’ command post and storages in Syria with missile attack,” July 5, 2017, http://eng.mil.ru/en/news_page/country/more.htm?id=12132186@egNews.
  • Dave Majumdar, “Ready for War: Russia’s Stealthy Kh-101 Cruise Missile Debuts in Syria,” National Interest , November 18, 2015 http://nationalinterest.org/blog/the-buzz/ready-war-russias-stealthy-kh-101-cruise-missile-debuts-14387; Akulov.
  • “Tactical Missile Corporation plans to upgrade Kh-101 Cruise Missile,” Russian Aviation, August 19, 2016 https://www.ruaviation.com/news/2016/8/19/6541/?h.
  • O’Halloran, 189.
  • Ibid; Akulov.
  • “Kh-101/-102” in IHS Jane’s Weapons: Strategic 2015-2016, 189.
  • “Kh-65/ Kh-SD/ Kh-101,” Federation of American Scientists, https://fas.org/nuke/guide/russia/bomber/kh-101.htm.
  • RC Porter, “Top-Notch Kh-101 Cruise Missiles that Russia Unleashes on Daesh in Raqqa,” Fortuna’s Corner (blog), February 19, 2017, https://fortunascorner.com/2017/02/19/the-cruise-missiles-russia-is-using-in-syria/; Nicholas de Larrinaga “Russia Launches Long Range Air Sorties into Syria,” IHS Jane’s Defense Weekly , November 17, 2015, https://web.archive.org/web/20151118145706/http://www.janes.com/article/56062/russia-launches-long-range-air-sorties-into-syria.
  • David Cenciotti, “Russia Tu-95 Bear Bombers Escorted by Su-30SM Jets Carry Out Air Strike in Syria using Kh-101 Strategic Cruise Missiles,” The Aviationist , July 5, 2017, https://theaviationist.com/2017/07/05/russian-tu-95-bear-bombers-escorted-by-su-30sm-jets-carry-out-air-strike-in-syria-using-kh-101-strategic-cruise-missile/.
  • “Russia hits Islamic State in Syria with advanced cruise missiles,” Reuters , July 5, 2017 https://www.reuters.com/article/us-mideast-crisis-syria-russia-idUSKBN19Q1QP.
  • Russian Ministry of Defense, “Tu-95MS bombers fired cruise missiles at terrorist objects’ in Syria,” September 26, 2017, http://eng.mil.ru/en/news_page/country/more.htm?id=12143592@egNews.

clock This article was published more than  2 years ago

What to know about the long-range cruise missile Russia says it fired

Russian naval forces launched long-range cruise missiles on Tuesday evening from the waters off Sevastopol, a port city in Russia-held Crimea, according to expert analysis of video verified by The Washington Post.

Russia said the 3M-14 Kalibr cruise missile attack destroyed a major Ukrainian arsenal.

Understanding the weapons that have drawn the world’s attention since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine

A v ideo filmed by a witness from the Sevastopol waterfront on Tuesday shows at least four projectiles being fired from the water. Geolocation of the video by The Post shows the missiles appear to be traveling northwest, away from the city. As the narrator recites the date and location, the camera pans to show his surroundings.

“We thought it was a plane flying,” the narrator says. “It’s normal that planes fly here. But shooting is something serious.”

Additional video filmed around the same time shows eight flares with long tails that appear to be airborne missiles flying over the Black Sea. Both videos were verified by The Post.

Footage shared by the Russian defense ministry on social media shows large fireballs emanating from a warship where the ministry said Russian forces had fired Kalibr cruise missiles toward military assets in Orzhev, a village outside of the city of Rivne. Rivne is located more than 200 miles west of Kyiv and would be within the range a 3M-14 Kalibr missile could travel if it was fired from Sevastopol.

The tightly cropped video first shows multiple large explosions in succession above a ship, while someone off camera counts, “First, second, third, fourth.” The video then cuts to a wider view of a sunset where the long tails of the eight missiles are visible. The Post was not able to verify the location of this launch.

What you need to know about hypersonic missiles, which Biden says Russia used against Ukraine

Video reportedly of a Russian Project 21631 Buyan-M small missile ship launching 8 Kalibr-NK cruise missiles from near Sevastopol. https://t.co/GcWqUpoXLh pic.twitter.com/VvU3l5yYCK — Rob Lee (@RALee85) March 22, 2022

“As a result of the strike, a large depot of weapons and military equipment of the Ukrainian troops, including those received from Western countries, was destroyed,” a statement on the ministry’s Telegram channel said.

U.S. officials said they could not confirm that the weapons had been used. Ukrainian authorities have not confirmed the deployment of the missiles or the destruction of an arsenal near Rivne.

The Post could not independently verify Russia’s claim that a weapons depot had been destroyed.

Ian Williams, deputy director of the missile defense project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said he was nearly positive the videos showed the launch of 3M-14 Kalibr cruise missiles.

“These are Russia’s long-range naval sea-based cruise missiles, similar to the U.S. Tomahawk,” he told The Post in an email. “They use satellite navigation along with some onboard inertial guidance.”

“This was almost certainly launched by the Russian Black Sea Fleet,” Mark Cancian, senior adviser for the international security program at CSIS, said in an email. Kalibr missiles are “at the high end of Russian capabilities,” he added. “Russia uses them to attack the highest priority targets. They seem to be doing more of that in western Ukraine. It may be part of an effort to attack strategic targets, that is, targets that matter in the long war.”

The 3M-14 or SS-N-30A cruise missile , commonly referred to as the Kalibr missile, can be fired from ships or submarines toward land targets. It can travel a maximum range of about 1,550 miles, according to the CSIS Missile Defense Project.

russian cruise missile cost

3M14 Kalibr

Stabilizers

20 feet, 4 inches

6 foot person for scale

russian cruise missile cost

Pop-out wings

Control fins

The missiles, designed to penetrate the air defenses of stationary ground targets, fly autonomously and largely horizontally at low altitude, along preprogrammed waypoints. Their route can be updated midcourse via satellite communication. Cruise missiles can be highly accurate compared to ballistic missiles.

russian cruise missile cost

Low altitude

flight path,

by satellite

Approximate 1,550 mile range

Not to scale

russian cruise missile cost

3M14T Kalibr

flight path, parallel to

russian cruise missile cost

Low altitude flight path, parallel to ground

Tracks terrain

during flight

Route can be updated through satellites

The standard 3M14T land-attack missile reportedly contains a nearly 1,000-pound high explosive warhead. It is often used to attack storage facilities, command posts, seaports and airports.

Russia stuck barracks in the southern port city of Mykolaiv with a Kalibr missile earlier this month, the New York Times reported , killing at least eight Ukrainian soldiers who had been sleeping there. The region’s governor said at least 19 others were wounded.

A Pentagon official said at a background briefing Wednesday that the United States still assessed that Russia has “the vast majority” of its inventory of surface-to-air missiles and cruise missiles.

Russia first used the SS-N-30A Kalibr missile in Syria in October 2015, when it launched 26 missiles from Russian naval vessels in the Caspian Sea, at forces fighting the government of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.

Dan Lamothe contributed to this report.

russian cruise missile cost

How big a loss to Russia is the sinking of the Moskva missile cruiser?

A sailor looks at the Russian missile cruiser Moskva moored in the Ukrainian Black Sea port of Sevastopol

WHAT HAPPENED TO THE CREW?

Will it loss change the course of the ukraine conflict, will russia's navy now change the way it operates and does that matter, was the moskva earmarked for a role in the unfolding conflict, can russia easily replace the moskva's capabilities, was the moskva armed with unique weapons, how modern a ship was it, how big a blow to russian military pride is the sinking.

The Reuters Daily Briefing newsletter provides all the news you need to start your day. Sign up here.

Reporting by Reuters reporters and Idrees Ali and Jonathan Landay in Washington Editing by Angus MacSwan

Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles. , opens new tab

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These Are the High-Powered Weapons Ukraine Needs to Repel Russia's Big Offensive

While it waits for jets, Ukraine still has a lot of firepower to work with

nasams missile defense system

But then, to the surprise of the world, Ukraine pushed back, exposing unexpected disorganization within the Russian war operation. “The early phase is really defined by Ukrainian grit and skill, combined with a spectacularly incompetent Russian strategic plan,” says Scott Boston, a senior defense analyst with the RAND Corporation.

Unfortunately, grit and skill couldn’t sustain Ukraine for long. By summer, Russia’s military potency had ground down resistance in swaths of territory in the eastern and southern parts of the country. Russia claimed those regions as its own and attempted to establish pro-Russian provisional governments. The U.S. and NATO allies had already sent Ukraine billions in weapons , but Russia’s advances made it clear that more was needed—reports had emerged that Ukraine’s soldiers were still launching homemade grenades, and its citizens were tossing Molotov cocktails to slow the Russian advances. By December, the U.S. alone had approved $19.3 billion worth of drones, howitzers, missiles, and rockets. Ukrainians would still be outnumbered and fighting in the streets, but they were finally getting the fearsome weapons they most needed.

That arsenal includes long-range rocket launchers, Javelin anti-tank missiles, powerful howitzers, and cruise missiles costing millions of dollars apiece. Together, these munitions have allowed Ukrainian soldiers to destroy command posts and equipment, defend key cities, and prevent Russia from establishing air superiority. As the supplies rolled in, Ukraine clawed back territory, which it is still attempting to hold as Russia has begun attacking Ukraine’s power grid, water supplies, and residential areas.

As the war pushes into its second year and winter threatens to upend strategies on both sides, weapons provided by allies will be critical to future Ukrainian victories. Here are eight whose battlefield performance suggests they may eventually send Russia running.

M142 High Mobility Rocket Artillery System (HIMARS)

us marines soldiers demonstrate the himars

What it is: A truck-mounted mobile rocket launcher | Cost per unit: $7 million | Units pledged by the U.S.: 38 | Range: Up to 50 miles

Massive and mobile, the HIMARS has changed the course of the war more than any other weapons system. Mark Cancian, a retired Marine Corps colonel and senior adviser for the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, D.C., says it has been one of the two most effective weapons in the war, alongside Javelin anti-tank missiles (more on those below). Each one contains a pod of six launchers that fire powerful, precision-guided rockets with a range of up to 50 miles. “The main thing is the combination of range and precision. It is a very accurate weapon,” says Scott Boston, the RAND Corporation defense analyst. Ukraine has used HIMARS units to target Russian ammunition depots and headquarters. In fighting this fall, it has used them to destroy bridges crossing the Dnipro River in the strategically important city of Kherson. Because the launcher is mounted on a five-ton vehicle, troops can quickly move the weapon after firing to avoid counterstrikes, and skilled operators can reload the system with fresh rockets in minutes. “Even a small number of HIMARS can fire an enormous number of rockets,” Boston says.

M777 Howitzer

m777 howitzers have arrived in ukraine and are in use on the front lines providing modern high explosive weaponry that can deliver rounds up to 35 miles downrange

What it is: One of the most agile, reliable cannons ever made | Cost per unit: About $4 million | Units pledged by the U.S.: 142 | Range: 25 miles

As Russia moved more troops into the eastern and southern regions of Ukraine this summer, both sides amassed forces around key battlegrounds and built defensive trenches. “They’re fighting it like World War I, which means lots and lots of artillery. You look at the battlefield and you see lots of craters,” says Mark Cancian, the retired Marine. The M777, a basic artillery howitzer , is surprisingly effective for this kind of fighting. The 155mm cannon has a 17-foot-long barrel that fires 95-pound artillery rounds up to 25 miles. That’s a shorter range than those of similar weapons operated by Russia (the BM-30 Smerch has twice the range), but it makes up for it with greater agility, precision, and reliability. It can fire on Russian weapons ammunition depots, troops, or command centers with accuracy up to 16 feet, well within the shell’s 230-foot blast radius. Its rugged design allows operators to fire as many as 300 rounds a day.

National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile (NASAM)

nasams missile defense system

What it is: Ground-launched surface-to-air missile | Cost per unit: About $25 million | Units pledged by the U.S.: 8 | Range: 25 miles

As Russia intensifies its cruise missile strikes inside Ukraine, surface-to-air defenses are becoming critical. The Russian military frequently targets infrastructure, utilities, and military assets, but Ukraine claims that its missiles have also hit residential buildings, schools, and hospitals. So far, the most effective weapon Ukraine has to protect these locations is the NASAM surface-to-air missile system. Jointly produced by the U.S. and Norway, the weapon can be towed into place or mounted onto the back of a vehicle. Each unit contains a radar system and three launchers that hold up to six short-range to midrange missiles. Through allies, Ukraine has access to large stocks of the types of missiles that are compatible with NASAM, but so far there aren’t many launchers to go around. The U.S. and NATO countries deactivated most of their short-range air defenses after the Cold War because their potential adversaries—like Iraq and Afghanistan—didn’t have strong air forces, says Cancian. Raytheon, who produced the weapon in the U.S., says it will build more, but it could take a year or longer for them to reach Ukraine.

Javelin Anti-Tank Missile

a ukrainian recruit looks through the viewfinder of a fgm 148 javelin surface to air missile

What it is: Portable missile that attacks tanks from above | Cost per unit: $178,000 per missile | Units pledged by the U.S.: 8,500 missiles | Range: 2.5 miles

The Javelin’s name says it all: Unlike some anti-tank missiles, this one flies in an arc, just like the ancient weapon. It strikes from above to hit the top of a tank, where it is most vulnerable. “Javelin is far and away the most capable man-portable, anti-tank missile ever conceived,” says Boston. “It is absurdly good. No tank anywhere is survivable against a Javelin warhead in the roof.” The weapon was especially valuable early in the war, when troops and tanks were moving quickly across open spaces. Unlike some more sophisticated weapons, Javelin requires little training, so Ukrainian forces were able to employ these weapons as soon as the Russians arrived. The U.S. has delivered about 8,500 Javelin missiles to Ukraine, but an unknown number of launchers. Given how important they are, the U.S. and Ukraine don’t want to tip off Russia to how many Ukraine possesses.

Switchblade Drone

switchblade 300 lethal miniature aerial missile system during a training exercise

What it is: Lightweight kamikaze drone | Cost per unit: $220,000 (Switchblade 600] | Units pledged by the U.S.: 700+ | Range: 25 miles

The evocative official term for the Switchblade is “loitering munition drone,” which means it remains airborne over an enemy and then attacks quickly at speeds of over 100 mph once a target is identified. The U.S. has sent two versions to Ukraine: The smaller 300 weighs about 5.5 pounds and uses a fragmentation warhead that explodes like a shotgun over the target. The larger 600 weighs about 50 pounds and packs a warhead similar to the one on a Javelin anti-tank missile. Switchblade is carried and launched from a portable tube. Once airborne, its wings extend, and an electric propeller sends it toward a target area.

Snipex Alligator

What it is: High-powered sniper rifle | Cost per unit: N/A | Units pledged: N/A | Range: 4 miles

The immense size and power of this long gun make it especially useful for Ukraine, as both sides dig into trenches and hardened battlefield positions. Combatants are fighting across greater distances, which is where the Snipex sniper rifle excels. When assembled, it exceeds six and a half feet in length, more than twice the size of a typical hunting rifle, with a 47-inch barrel. It can fire its 14.5x144mm round up to four miles and has enough force to pierce the defenses of lightly armored vehicles. The gun’s maker claims it will penetrate 9mm armor from nearly a mile away. That makes it especially valuable to Ukrainian soldiers, who can use it to take out adversaries, damage radar and communication equipment, immobilize vehicles, or destroy enemy weapons. Another benefit: Unlike other weapons on the list, this one is made in Ukraine, although it’s unclear how many the maker has provided to Ukrainian soldiers or whether it is still producing the weapon. The company is based in Kharkiv, about 185 miles west of Luhansk, where Russia recently mobilized additional troops and fierce fighting continues.

HARM Anti-Radiation Missile

us navy ea 18g growler fighter aircraft attached to the star warriors of electronic attack squadron 209 firing agm 88 high speed anti radiation missiles

What it is: An air-launched missile that hunts ground-based radar systems | Cost per unit: $200,000 | Units pledged by the U.S.: N/A | Range: 30 miles

One of America’s most capable weapons reached Ukraine this summer, and it quickly made an impact. The AGM-88 High-Speed Anti-Radiation Missile (HARM) was designed to be fired from U.S.-built F-16 and F/A-18 fighter jets, so Ukraine first had to learn how to modify its MiG-29 jets to fit the 14-foot-long, 800-pound missile. Once launched, HARM races toward enemy radars using an antenna in the nose. Before it’s detected, its fragmentation warhead explodes just prior to impact, disabling radar with a violent spray of shrapnel. The benefit is immediate, crippling the opponent’s air defenses. Without radar, they can’t identify, track, or accurately fire missiles at incoming planes or missiles.

Phoenix Ghost Drone

switchblade 600 drone launch

What it is: An experimental kamikaze drone with a long range | Cost per unit: N/A | Units delivered by the U.S.: Approx. 1,800 | Range: 100+ miles (estimated)

So far, the U.S. has resisted providing Ukraine with long-range offensive weapons, especially cruise missiles or longer-range ATACMS munitions that can be fired from the HIMARS launcher. It fears those weapons would escalate the war, possibly leading Russia to attack a NATO country. Ukraine, however, says it needs weapons like these to launch a counteroffensive and to take back Crimea and other territory claimed by Russia. While the two sides debate, the U.S. has supplied another weapon to help Ukraine’s offensive efforts. Little is known about the Phoenix Ghost, except that this one-way kamikaze drone is an experimental weapon first tested in Afghanistan. The drone is believed to have a range of more than 100 miles, and it can carry a warhead powerful enough to take out medium-armored targets—anything up to a battle tank. It has infrared sensors to fly at night and can stay aloft for six hours. That should make it very effective against Russia’s heavy artillery, at least until the U.S. or another of Ukraine’s allies releases the big guns.

Leopard 2 Tank

germany and holland hold military exercises

What it is: Powerful and accurate main battle tank | Cost per unit: $8.8 million + | Units delivered: 54 pledged from Germany, Poland, Portugal, the Netherlands, and Norway | Range: 311 miles (estimated)

The Kampfpanzer Leopard 2, which Germany designed and built in the 1970s, is one of the most widely used tanks in the world, and is by far the most popular tank in NATO’s inventory. It was so advanced for its time that even the mighty American M1 Abrams has some Leopard 2 DNA in it. Now, nearly a year after Russia invaded Ukraine, NATO is set to send up to 54 Leopard 2s to energize the Ukrainian army. The tanks, sent from NATO nations including Germany, Poland, the Netherlands, Norway, and Portugal, will arm Kyiv with a better, more powerful tank fleet than ever before. In small numbers or large, however, the Leopard 2 would be a much better tank than anything fielded by the mighty Russian Armed Forces.

The Leopard 2 is a 55-ton main battle tank . It’s armed with a 120-millimeter smoothbore gun and two 7.62-millimeter machine guns. A crew of four operates the tank, including a commander, gunner, loader, and driver. It’s powered by an MTU MB 873 12-cylinder, water-cooled diesel engine, producing 1,500 horsepower. This results in a ratio of 27 horsepower per ton, enough to drive it to a top speed of 42 miles per hour. The tank’s Rheinmetall Rh-120 120-millimeter smoothbore main gun is managed by one of the most advanced fire-control systems in the world, with a ballistic computer, laser range finder, and thermal night vision that make it the equal of the American M1 Abrams. This allows the tank to engage targets with high first-round hit accuracy, day or night, and even engage moving enemy targets through enemy smoke screens. According to Rheinmetall , a round fired by the Rh-120 gun is supersonic as it leaves the muzzle, traveling at up to 5,692 feet per second. (A .30-06 rifle bullet, on the other hand, travels at just 3,000 feet per second .) The Rh-120 is highly accurate while shooting on the move due to a two-axis stabilization system that counteracts the tank’s movement against the position of the Rh-120 gun barrel. As Russia continues to assault cities in Eastern Ukraine, and plans for a major new offensive, the Leopards power and accuracy could make it one of the most critical weapons determining the war's outcome. —Kyle Mizokami

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Su-57 MAKS 2022

The full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 led to a sharp increase in military spending in many countries, including Russia. While the Kremlin is generally keen to promote its big-ticket defense programs, above all to help generate lucrative export sales, it’s far less simple to get a handle on how much Russia itself is currently spending on these various weapons.

However, searching through official Russian documents does still provide some fascinating insight into the costs involved, at least for some key defense programs. This is of particular interest for those military aircraft that have been exposed to combat over Ukraine and, in the process, taken significant losses, like the Ka-52 attack helicopter, as well as some of the critical air-launched weapons that are being expended in the same conflict.

Russian President Vladimir Putin talks to workers during a visit to the Kazan Aircraft Production Association on May 13, 2019, in Kazan, Russia. <em>Photo by Mikhail Svetlov/Getty Images</em>

With that in mind, let’s take a look at the prices of Russian aviation military equipment, based on available official documents. Note that, in the article, costs are provided in the original Russian ruble currency, although conversions to the U.S. Dollar appear in a separate table and we will give an explanation as to why this is not the best comparative metric in our conclusion.

How much does the Su-57 cost?

Known to NATO as Felon, the Su-57 is Russia’s latest fighter jet, and its series production is only just getting started. So far, there are no operational units equipped and all nine aircraft handed over to the Russian Ministry of Defense ( the latest four in December 2022 ) are at the Akhtubinsk test facility and Lipetsk crew conversion center.

Beginning in June 2022, Russian officials reported on several occasions about the employment of the Su-57 in Ukraine , including the use of weapons launched from its internal bays. The head of the United Aircraft Corporation, Yuri Slyusar, said last August that “the aircraft is taking part in the special military operation, showing its best side.” It’s almost certain that Su-57s have not flown over Ukrainian-controlled territory — Russia would simply not risk it. If they have been used in combat, they will have fired their missiles from well within Russian territory.

The Su-57 is the latest and most expensive Russian fighter, currently in test operation by the Russian Aerospace Forces, including reported combat use against Ukraine. <em>United Aircraft Corporation</em>

The most reliable information about the price of the Su-57 comes from a presentation shown to Russian Minister of Defense Sergei Shoigu during his visit to the Su-57’s production plant in Komsomolsk-on-Amur in August 2020. According to a poster shown to Shoigu, the price of two aircraft from the initial batch (completed in 2019 and 2020) amounted to 4,700 million rubles each (including 20 percent VAT). Furthermore, the poster included the forecast price reduction during the course of production for the batch of 76 fighters ordered in June 2019 (for delivery until 2028); the price of one aircraft produced in 2028 is expected to amount to 3,192 million rubles. It’s important to remember that this is the unit price of a current production aircraft and does not include the costs of research and development, or preparations for production, which were previously paid in separate contracts.

The most recent batch of four Su-57s was delivered in December 2022. <em>United Aircraft Corporation</em>

How much does the Il-76MD-90A cost?

The Il-76 Candid is Russia’s basic large military transport aircraft and the only one of its kind used in significant numbers. In the Soviet era, it was produced in Tashkent, in the Uzbek Soviet Socialist Republic. In 2006, the Russian government decided to launch production of the improved Il-76MD-90A version in Russia, at the Aviastar-SP plant in Ulyanovsk. It should be emphasized that this is not a resumption of production, but a production start for a thoroughly modernized aircraft, almost from scratch, in a new location. The old Il-76 tooling has remained in Tashkent.

The Russian Ministry of Defense contracted Il-76MD-90A transports at a cost of 3,570 million rubles each, which turned out to be well below the producer’s own costs. Pictured is the delivery of an Il-76MD-90A in Ulyanovsk in April 2019. <em>United Aircraft Corporation</em>

On October 4, 2012, the Russian Ministry of Defense ordered 39 Il-76MD-90A aircraft with deliveries planned between 2014 and 2020. The contract value was 139.4 billion rubles, or 3,570 million rubles apiece, on average. The price was indexed and the price of the final aircraft to be delivered, in 2020, was 3,710 million rubles. (Clearly, the indexation was insufficient, because actual inflation in Russia was between 5 and 12 percent annually during those years). We know these prices from court cases after the manufacturer failed to meet deadlines; production of the Il-76MD-90A is an example of a failure to fulfill all the contractual conditions.

In April 2017, the Russian Ministry of Defense admitted that the main reason for the delay was the high failure rate of the aircraft’s new equipment, the significant number of changes to its documentation introduced by the Ilyushin design bureau during the production process, as well as additional requirements for the aircraft’s systems that were introduced by the defense ministry. The management of the Aviastar-SP company complained about a significant increase in sub-supplier prices. According to the Russian media, the plant was losing one billion rubles on the production of each aircraft, and therefore demanded a renegotiation of the contract. In May 2019, the defense ministry agreed to change the terms of the contract. However, the new conditions, including the price, are unknown.

How much does the Ka-52 cost?

The Ka-52 is currently the primary Russian combat helicopter and has been very actively employed in Ukraine. By January 2023, Russia had lost more than 30 of these helicopters in Ukraine, or a quarter of the fleet of 140-145 Ka-52s that it had operated before the invasion.

The price of a single Ka-52 helicopter can be found in a financial report from its manufacturer, the Progress plant in Arsenyev, for 2021. According to this document, the plant delivered 12 helicopters to the Russian Ministry of Defense in 2021 and received 11,497 million rubles, or 958 million rubles for each helicopter, in accordance with the contract. However, the cost of production of one helicopter was higher and amounted to 1,177 million rubles. This means that the production of each Ka-52 generated a loss of 219 million rubles (all prices excluding VAT).

By early 2023, Russia had lost more than 30 Ka-52s in Ukraine, each worth more than a billion rubles. <em>Russian Ministry of Defense</em>

Surprisingly, it’s not unusual for the Russian Ministry of Defense to pay a purchase price that’s lower than the cost of production. The Russian industry has long complained about this defense ministry policy, which forces prices down. Enterprises agree to it because, most often, a defense ministry contract is their only source of production. At the same time, the ministry has a principle of setting prices in long-term contracts that do not account for real inflation. Taken together, this means that many plants actually sell their products below their actual value. Later, the government attempts to compensate for these losses since it cannot allow the defense company to go bankrupt. For example, the state might pay debts that the enterprise owes to state-owned banks. For the Russian industry, this is frustrating and not very logical, but that’s the way it is.

The above price figures are close to another value derived from data published in April 2019 regarding the tender for insurance for the transport of a batch of Ka-52E export helicopters delivered to Egypt. In that case, the value of one helicopter was estimated at 1,102 million rubles, which at the then exchange rate was $17 million. Of course, Egypt, which ordered 46 Ka-52E helicopters in 2015, paid much more for them. The insurance value probably corresponds to the sum received by the production plant (the rest of the money is taken by the intermediary, i.e. Rosoboronexport, the state arms export/import agency).

How much does the R-77-1 missile cost?

The R-77-1 , known to NATO as AA-12B Adder, is the basic beyond-visual-range air-to-air missile currently produced in Russia. It was developed by the Toropov Vympel company (like all current Russian AAMs) and is produced by the same company in its facility in Moscow. We learned the price of the missile from a court case brought in 2019 by the Russian Ministry of Defense against Vympel. The ministry demanded compensation for a November 2018 delay in the delivery of a batch of 10 R-77-1 missiles, with a total value of 299 million rubles, which means that one missile cost 29.9 million rubles at 2018 prices.

Medium-range R-77-1 air-to-air missiles under a Su-35S, ready to fly a Ukraine mission. <em>Russian Ministry of Defense</em>

This case allows us also to estimate the production volume of R-77-1 missiles. It was reported that the value of the entire five-year contract for 2018 to 2022 was 64,880 million rubles, which, assuming a fixed price, would be enough for 2,170 missiles, or about 430 per year.

How much does the LMUR missile cost?

The LMUR (or izdeliye 305) lightweight multi-purpose guided missile is the latest and most advanced Russian anti-armor weapon. It has been in series production for around five years and is used by Mi-8MNP-2 special operations helicopters as well as by modernized Mi-28NM and Ka-52M combat helicopters. It has been used in combat in Ukraine . The missile weighs 231 pounds, twice as much as typical Russian helicopter-launched anti-tank missiles, and flies up to 9 miles, also twice as far as other Russian anti-tank missiles.

Valery Kashin, the head of the Machine Building Design Bureau in Kolomna that developed the LMUR. <em>Nikolay Novichkov/TASS</em><br>&nbsp;

The price of the LMUR can be learned from a court case brought by the Russian Ministry of Defense against the manufacturer, the Machine Building Design Bureau in Kolomna near Moscow. This is related to claimed compensation for a delay in the delivery of a batch of 30 LMUR missiles in 2018. According to these documents, one LMUR missile cost 14.2 million rubles (including 18 percent VAT).

The production volume can be estimated from the same document. The value of the entire three-year contract (2018-2020) was 1,807 million rubles, which is enough for 127 missiles, assuming a fixed price. The 2018 batch was for 30 missiles, which implies the production of around 50 missile rounds annually in subsequent years.

Other prices

Unfortunately, this is where the prices confirmed in available official documents end. Beyond this, we have to rely on information with a lower degree of credibility.

The most expensive Russian aircraft is the Tu-160 Blackjack strategic bomber. On January 25, 2018, in Kazan, in the presence of President Vladimir Putin, the Russian Ministry of Defense inked an order for 10 new Tu-160M bombers to be delivered by 2028. After signing the contract, Putin said that the defense ministry had bought “10 planes, each of them 15 billion — even more than 15 billion — 160 billion [in total].” That equates to over $500 million per aircraft if the purchasing power parity factor is considered.

The first Tu-160M strategic bomber from the new production run made its maiden flight on January 12, 2022. Each such aircraft costs 15-16 billion rubles. <em>United Aircraft Corporation</em>

Several other prices for aviation equipment can be found in tenders for insurance, which provide values for the insured objects. In this way, the Beriev Be-200ChS amphibious aircraft, a dual-role firefighting and search-and-rescue aircraft produced in 2022, costs 2,640 million rubles, and its simpler Be-200T variant, without a firefighting function, costs 2,005 million rubles.

In another document, the Mi-8AMTSh-VN helicopter, the latest, specially equipped, and armed version for Russia’s special operations forces was insured for the sum of 1,015 million rubles.

Is it a lot or is it a little?

Unfortunately, there is no easy way to convert the above ruble prices into more understandable currencies. Converting the prices into U.S. dollars using the market exchange rate (MER) is inaccurate, best demonstrated by the example of the Il-76MD-90A aircraft. Its price according to the current MER in 2012 was $115 million, and in 2020 it was $51 million — which is obviously unrealistic. The ruble exchange rate, heavily dependent on the price of oil on the world market, collapsed in 2014. Meanwhile, internal prices in Russia have not changed that much.

It is more appropriate to adopt a conversion rate adjusted for purchasing power parity (PPP), and even more so for defense-specific PPP instead of the general one. Using defense-specific PPP exchange rates, Russian military hardware prices in U.S. dollars are between 1.9 and 2.3 times higher than when using MERs. (These values are from Military Expenditure: Transparency, Defense Inflation and Purchasing Power Parity , published by the International Institute for Strategic Studies, IISS).

One unusual but nonetheless interesting way of evaluating these costs is to convert them into the number of apartments that can be bought for the same amount. The average price of a square meter of housing in Moscow is currently 300,000 rubles, in Saint Petersburg, it’s 200,000, and in other large Russian cities, 100,000 (of course, the term ‘average’ has many flaws). In this way, a typical two-bedroom (75-square-meter) apartment in Saint Petersburg costs 15 million rubles. More than 300 such apartments can be bought for the cost of a Su-57 fighter, around 80 for a Ka-52 helicopter, and two apartments for a single R-77-1 air-to-air missile.

Selected prices of Russian military aircraft and weapons

As well as the aforementioned difficulties in finding data on Russian military aircraft and missiles in the first place, and then making sense of the equivalent figures in U.S. dollars, there is also the issue of how the country’s defense industry is responding to the economic sanctions that have been introduced, or otherwise tightened, since the invasion of Ukraine.

As early as April last year, a senior U.S. defense official confirmed to  The War Zone   that Russia’s ability to resupply its forces had been seriously affected by sanctions imposed by the U.S. and its allies. In particular, the official noted that the ability to secure high-technology components, including for precision-guided munitions, had taken a hit. One example of this, according to Russian media, is the A-100 Premier next-generation airborne early warning and control (AEW&C) aircraft, based on the Il-76MD-90A airframe, where a shortage of electronic components like microchips has apparently been keenly felt. You can read more about that  here .

A prototype A-100 Premier AEW&amp;C aircraft during a test flight.&nbsp;<em>UAC</em>

The same senior U.S. defense official would not elaborate further on what systems are affected by sanction-imposed supply chain issues and how badly. However, the sanctions are exacerbating previous Russian supply chain issues, they said.

Shortages of key components are only likely to further drive up costs of Russian military aircraft and missiles, as well as introduce further delays. The Vympel company has been identified by the Ukrainian Embassy in the United States as one of “over 20 Russian military enterprises [that] were forced to suspend their activities in whole or in part due to shortage of parts and components, as well as rising prices due to sanctions.”

At the same time, the use of air-launched weapons like the R-77-1 and LMUR in Ukraine, as well as aircraft like the Ka-52, demand that stocks are resupplied and lost airframes replaced. While this should be good news for Russian industry, the costs of these endeavors need to be weighed up against other financial demands of a conflict for which there is no obvious end in sight.

An analysis from  Forbes Ukraine last November assessed that the Kremlin had spent around $82 billion in the first nine months of its war, of which nearly $29 billion was to support the armed forces, $16 billion for soldiers’ salaries, and more than $9 billion for the families of servicemen killed in combat. At that point, the same source suggested that Russian military equipment losses had cost another $21 billion.

Alongside the colossal cost of the war and the fact that sanctions are pushing up prices across the supply chain, Russia’s already fragile economy looks precarious, more generally, with reports that Gross Domestic Product output has dropped , although not as far as some had predicted.

Where the Russian arms industry once relied heavily upon foreign sales to keep its production lines busy and provide cash that could be channeled into further research and development, notably in the case of the Sukhoi Flanker multirole fighter jet family, the war in Ukraine has seen Russian defense exports hit badly, while it will be harder to fulfill any existing contracts.

President Putin (left) and his Turkish counterpart Recep Tayyip Erdogan inspect a Su-57 during the MAKS 2019 International Aviation and Space Salon opening ceremony in Zhukovsky outside Moscow on August 27, 2019. <em>Photo by MAXIM SHIPENKOV/POOL/AFP via Getty Images</em>

“We anticipate that they’re going to have a real problem delivering equipment at the rate they’re losing equipment in Ukraine,” a senior U.S. intelligence official told Foreign Policy last summer . Not only are aircraft like the Ka-52 now urgently needed by Russia as attrition replacements, rather than for export, but the generally poor showing of Russian air power in the conflict will almost certainly make it less attractive to potential customers — if those customers are even willing to do business with Putin’s Russia at all.

Whatever happens next in the conflict, it seems certain that Russia’s isolated position means that it will have to rely primarily on its domestic production capabilities to make good losses and restock weapons stockpiles. We may well never know what that will all cost, but the above examples demonstrate a general lack of resilience in the Russian military aircraft and weapons industry, and, as exports dry up, the Kremlin may be forced to intervene in other ways to prop up its defense companies.

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Russian Attack Leaves Over a Million in Ukraine Without Electricity

Power plants and a major hydroelectric dam were damaged in what Ukrainian officials said was one of the war’s largest assaults on energy infrastructure.

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By Constant Méheut and Ivan Nechepurenko

Constant Méheut reported from Kyiv, Ukraine, and Ivan Nechepurenko from Tbilisi, Georgia.

A large-scale Russian missile and drone attack damaged power plants and caused blackouts for more than a million Ukrainians on Friday morning, in what Ukrainian officials said was one of the war’s largest assaults on energy infrastructure.

At least five people were killed in the assault, and 26 others were injured, according to the Ukrainian national police .

The strikes came as ​the Kremlin escalated its rhetoric over the conflict, saying that Russia was “in a state of war” in Ukraine — and moving beyond the euphemism “special military operation” — because of the West’s heavy involvement on the Ukrainian side.

In Kharkiv, Ukraine’s second-largest city, traffic lights were not working and the water supply was disrupted. A fire raged at the country’s largest hydroelectric dam, in the southeastern city of Zaporizhzhia. A few dozen miles to the southwest, a power line supplying a Russian-occupied nuclear power plant was temporarily knocked out.

“The enemy is now launching the largest attack on the Ukrainian energy sector in recent times,” Herman Halushchenko, Ukraine’s energy minister, said on Facebook . “The goal is not just to damage, but to try again, like last year, to cause a large-scale failure of the country’s energy system.”

A hyrdoelectric dam across a river, with partial damage visible at one end.

The Ukrainian Air Force said that Russia had launched 63 Iranian-made “Shahed” attack drones and 88 missiles in the assault, including hypersonic weapons that fly at several times the speed of sound. The air force said it had shot down most of the drones but fewer than half of the missiles, a low interception rate compared with previous assaults that may reflect Ukraine’s dwindling air-defense stocks.

“Russian missiles have no delays, unlike aid packages for Ukraine,” President Volodymyr Zelensky said on social media , an apparent reference to the $60 billion in military assistance for Ukraine that Republicans in the United States Congress have held up for months .

“‘Shahed’ drones have no indecision, unlike some politicians,” Mr. Zelensky added.

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Russia’s defense ministry said that Friday’s attack was part of a wider series of strikes in retaliation for Ukrainian attacks on Russia’s border regions this month. The ministry said the strikes had targeted Western-supplied equipment and weapons in addition to Ukraine’s energy facilities.

The Kremlin said the West’s support for Kyiv had justified the change in how it describes the conflict.

Since Moscow’s full-scale invasion began in 2022, the Kremlin has insisted that it was conducting a “special military operation.” The country’s communications watchdog ordered Russian news media outlets not to describe the hostilities as an “invasion” or a “declaration of war.”

But Russian officials including President Vladimir V. Putin have occasionally used the word war in reference to the conflict, mostly to insist that Russia has been fighting a Western coalition. And in an interview published on Friday in a hawkish pro-Kremlin tabloid, the Kremlin’s spokesman, Dmitri S. Peskov, attempted to explain the change.

“Yes, it started as a special military operation, but as soon as this grouping was formed, when the collective West became a participant in this one the side of Ukraine, it became a war for us,” he said. “I am convinced of that,” he added. “And everyone should understand that for their internal mobilization.”

The assault on Friday was reminiscent of Russia’s air campaign against the Ukrainian energy grid during the first winter of the war, which plunged Kyiv into cold and darkness. The Ukrainian authorities had warned that Russia was likely to repeat that campaign this winter, but instead Moscow’s air attacks had so far mostly targeted industrial and military facilities.

Friday’s attack was Russia’s second large-scale air assault in two days. A missile attack on Kyiv on Thursday injured at least 13 people and damaged several buildings.

The latest assault began shortly after midnight, when Russian forces launched dozens of attack drones against several Ukrainian regions, according to Ukraine’s air force. Then, around 3 a.m., Russian fighter jets fired cruise missiles, followed by ballistic missiles and then hypersonic Kinzhal missiles, one of the most sophisticated weapons in Russia’s arsenal.

The complex barrage appeared designed to overwhelm Ukrainian air defenses, following a strategy used in previous Russian air assaults . Ukraine’s air force said it had not managed to shoot down any of the Kinzhal missiles.

Missile strikes on power facilities caused outages in seven Ukrainian regions, according to Ukrenergo , the national electricity company, prompting the country to receive urgent energy assistance from Poland, Romania and Slovakia.

Volodymyr Kudrytskyi, the head of Ukrenergo, said that the attack was bigger than those targeting energy infrastructure during the first winter of the war. Oleksiy Kuleba , the deputy head of Ukraine’s presidential office, said that hundreds of thousands of homes had temporarily lost power, affecting some 1.2 million residents.

Mr. Kuleba said that “blackout schedules” had been introduced in several regions to “preserve the power system” during repairs.

Particularly affected was the eastern city of Kharkiv, where about 15 explosions were heard, according to Mayor Ihor Terekhov. A pumping station was hit, hampering the city’s water supply, and electric trams and buses were not functioning.

“The city is completely without power. As a result, water and heating supply are not working,” Mr. Terekhov said in a video on social media. Earlier Friday, the local authorities said that 700,000 residents in the Kharkiv region had no electricity.

In the southern city of Zaporizhia, the Dnipro hydroelectric power plant suffered damage to its structure, including a large dam. Photos and videos posted online showed fire and smoke billowing from the plant, and the local authorities said that the road across the dam had been closed. The Ukrainian general prosecutor’s office said the plant had been hit eight times.

Ihor Syrota , the head of Ukrhydronenergo, the state company that owns Ukraine’s hydroelectric plants, said that there was no risk of a breach, but that an electricity-generating unit was in critical condition.

Attacks on power installations were also reported in the western regions of Vinnytsia, Lviv and Ivano-Frankivsk. Airstrikes on these areas have been rare during the war.

DTEK, a prominent Ukrainian power company, said in a statement that two of its power stations had been knocked offline. “In total, DTEK has temporarily lost around half of its available generation capacity,” it said.

Ukraine invested in protecting its energy infrastructure after the first winter of the war, building multilayered fortifications that included sandbags, concrete walls and cages filled with rocks. But the country’s energy system remains hobbled .

The White House condemned Russia’s “brutal strikes” on Friday. In a post on X , a U.S. National Security Council spokeswoman, Adrienne Watson, said that it is “critical we provide Ukraine more air defenses to defend against these attacks.”

“Lives are on the line,” she said.

Oleksandra Mykolyshyn contributed reporting from Kyiv.

Constant Méheut reports on the war in Ukraine, including battlefield developments, attacks on civilian centers and how the war is affecting its people. More about Constant Méheut

Ivan Nechepurenko covers Russia, Ukraine, Belarus, the countries of the Caucasus, and Central Asia. He is based in Moscow. More about Ivan Nechepurenko

Our Coverage of the War in Ukraine

News and Analysis

Russian missiles streaked into Kyiv  in the biggest assault on the Ukrainian capital in weeks, injuring several people and damaging several buildings.

Jake Sullivan, President Biden’s top national security official, made a secret trip to Kyiv to meet with President Volodymyr Zelensky and reaffirm the United States’ unwavering commitment to Ukraine.

Under pressure to come up with billions of dollars to support Ukraine’s military, the E.U. said that it had devised a legal way to use frozen Russian assets  to help arm Ukraine.

Symbolism or Strategy?: Ukrainians say that defending places with little strategic value is worth the cost in casualties and weapons , because the attacking Russians pay an even higher price. American officials aren’t so sure.

Elaborate Tales: As the Ukraine war grinds on, the Kremlin has created increasingly complex fabrications online  to discredit Ukraine’s leader, Volodymyr Zelensky, and undermine the country’s support in the West.

Targeting Russia’s Oil Industry: With its army short of ammunition and troops to break the deadlock on the battlefield, Kyiv has increasingly taken the fight beyond the Ukrainian border, attacking oil infrastructure deep in Russian territory .

How We Verify Our Reporting

Our team of visual journalists analyzes satellite images, photographs , videos and radio transmissions  to independently confirm troop movements and other details.

We monitor and authenticate reports on social media, corroborating these with eyewitness accounts and interviews. Read more about our reporting efforts .

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'Putin Consigns Russia To Poverty': 8 Cruise Missiles That Hit Ukraine Cost Moscow $100M

  • Tuesday's cruise missile strikes carried out by Russia cost $91 million 
  • The Kh-101 missile costs $13 million, a Kalibr $6.5 million, an Iskander $3 million, an Onyx $1.25 million, a Kh-22 $1 million
  • NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said Russia should not be allowed to win the war

Russia almost spent $100 million in one day for strikes on Ukraine, using its eight cruise missiles, Forbes Ukraine reported.

The Kh-101 (Kh-555) missiles targeted Kyiv on Tuesday.

The Kh-101 missile costs $13 million, a Kalibr $6.5 million, an Iskander $3 million, an Onyx $1.25 million, a Kh-22 $1 million, and a Tochka-U $0.3 million, the report read, adding Tuesday's cruise missile strikes alone cost $91 million.

"Putin consigns Russia to poverty with his criminal war, instead of investing in its future. Isn’t it time for Russians to stop marching with portraits of their corrupt leader and start asking questions?" Oleh Nikolenko, spokesperson for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine, wrote on Twitter.

Kharkiv was hit by Russian missiles launched from Belgorod on Wednesday. A civilian industrial facility was reportedly damaged in the strike.

In addition, Moscow also shelled Mykolaiv, Sumy, Dnipropetrovsk and Chernihiv regions. On Thursday, Pavlo Kyrylenko, the governor of Donetsk region, said that at least eight people were killed and four wounded in Russian artillery shelling in the eastern Ukrainian town of Toretsk. Three children were among the wounded.

Andriy Yermak, the Ukrainian president’s chief of staff, said this was “another terrorist act” by Russia, Al Jazeera reported. The governors of Mykolaiv, Kharkiv and Dnipropetrovsk also reported their regions were shelled overnight Wednesday by Russian forces.

Meanwhile, NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said Thursday that Russia should not be allowed to win the war in Ukraine.

“It’s in our interest that this type of aggressive policy does not succeed,” Stoltenberg said in a speech in his native Norway. “If President (Vladimir) Putin even thinks of doing something similar to a NATO country as he has done to Georgia, Moldova or Ukraine, then all of NATO will be involved immediately,."

Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky attended a meeting with heads of staff of the military and security forces on "urgent security issues" on Thursday. According to Pravda , the first item discussed was related to the state’s provision of the necessary weapons and military equipment to the Defense Forces as the war in Ukraine continues on for more than five months.

Russian missiles hit a school in the eastern city of Kharkiv

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Ukraine's Patriot kills of Russian planes and missiles have turned a US air-defense weapon with a troubled past into a hero

  • Ukraine's use of the US-made Patriot system has been celebrated.
  • The weapon had a chequered reputation due to its performance in past conflicts.
  • Any skepticism over its effectiveness should be put to bed, experts told Business Insider.

Insider Today

Any lingering doubts about the effectiveness of the US-made Patriot air-defense system at shooting down airborne threats have finally been dispelled by the system's performance in Ukraine, experts told Business Insider.

The system's intercept rate in past conflicts left it with a mixed reputation, experts said, and sparked debates over whether it should be sent to Ukraine in the first place.

Having strong air-defense systems is critical for Ukraine. Since Russia launched its full-scale invasion in late February 2022, Ukraine has been regularly using its air-defense systems to defend against missile and drone attacks. Those attacks have hit cities, killed civilians , destroyed homes, and damaged essential energy infrastructure, knocking out power.

But for a little over a year, Ukraine really only had less-capable, Soviet-era air-defense systems. Allies started to give Ukraine more advanced ones but hadn't yet committed to sending Patriots.

The US eventually approved their move . The first arrived last April, and Ukraine now has at least three, possibly five, of them. Exactly how many Ukraine has been given, as well as exactly where they are and how they are being used, has been kept secret.

But one thing that is clear, the experts said, is that the Patriot has clearly been working extremely well in Ukraine.

Their performance, according to Frederik Mertens, an analyst at the Hague Center for Strategic Studies, has been "an unmitigated success."

Some experts BI spoke to argued the older, worse reputation was never fully deserved. For others, updates to the system and the way Ukraine has used it is what now elevates its reputation.

Either way, the consensus now is that there is no argument against it being an extremely effective system.

"The Patriot has performed fairly spectacularly in Ukraine," Justin Bronk, an airpower expert at the UK's Royal United Services Institute who has followed developments in Ukraine closely, told BI.

A mixed past

The MIM-104 Patriot missile system is a ground-based, mobile surface-to-air missile battery that can down crewed and uncrewed aircraft, cruise missiles, and short-range and tactical ballistic missiles.

The US first developed it in the 1960s, and it was first used on the battlefield in the Gulf War, which started in 1990. Mertens described the Patriots as having "shaky behavior" in the Gulf War. In particular, questions were raised over it's effectiveness against Iraq's Scud missiles.

While reports during the war pointed to impressive Patriot performance, the war's end brought a new examination of those claims, prompting both the US Army and the weapon's manufacturer, Raytheon, to defend it.

A House of Representatives subcommittee investigation was launched, concluding after 10 months that there was little evidence that the Patriot hit more than a few of the Scud missiles.

Mertens said their inadequate performance is at least partly explained by the fact that early Patriot missiles were, at that time, designed for anti-aircraft use, so they "didn't function that well against these Iraqi Scuds."

"There they didn't perform that brilliantly," he said, but "we shouldn't be too critical because this was the first time we see ballistic missiles really being targeted by air defenses."

Bronk said that the Patriot had "a relatively checkered and controversial combat record" as people interpreted data from the Gulf War differently.

"I think there's this kind of longstanding idea that Patriot doesn't really work very well because it didn't work very well on the Gulf War and I think mostly that's not correct or accurate anymore," said Timothy Wright, a missile expert at the International Institute for Strategic Studies.

An improved weapon

The Patriots were used by US allies in the Iraq war, where a number of blunders were recorded, including the shootdown of allied aircraft.

These incidents included a Patriot shooting down a US F/A-18C Hornet jet in 2003, with an investigation concluding that the Patriot had misidentified the jet as an incoming Iraqi missile and that soldiers had violated missile launch procedures. That incident killed the pilot, 30-year-old American Lt. Nathan White.

Mick Ryan, a retired Major General in the Australian Army and a military strategist, attributed some of those errors to "an autonomous mode that we didn't quite understand," which has since been addressed.

Saudi Arabia has used the Patriot system against attacks by Houthi rebels, who ignited a civil war in Yemen. Recorded use of Patriots in that conflict started in 2015.

The exact intercept rate of the Patriots involved in that conflict is unknown. Wright said there is a lack of exact information, but there seems to be "a pretty good success rate in my opinion."

Not all experts agree. Jeffrey Lewis, a missile expert at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey, argued in 2018 that the system's performance in Saudi Arabia, where some missiles made it through, cast doubt over whether this system really works. Others argue that no system is flawless.

Tom Karako, the director of the Missile Defense Project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said the Patriot "has been doing fairly well" there since 2015.

"It doesn't mean it's getting everything," he said. "It doesn't mean it's perfect. There is no weapon system that's perfect."

Mertens said in that conflict, "we saw that Patriots had become far more effective than they were earlier." In Saudi Arabia, "these Patriots have had commendable and very good success rates. They haven't stopped everything, but they have stopped most of the Houthi attacks against key targets," he said.

He emphasized that no air defense system is expected to shoot down every single target, but the Patriots really "have come a long way since the Gulf War."

The Patriot had been improved with system's most advanced missile, the PAC-3, first used in the Iraq war.

It is unconfirmed if Ukraine uses an earlier model, the PAC-2, or PAC-3s.

Either way, Ryan said that by the time the system came to Ukraine, it had "gone through decades of upgrades."

But, doubts remained before their appearance there.

Mertens said that "before the Ukraine war, we knew that Patriot was good, at least, at intercepting older missiles."

"So when these weapons were deployed to Ukraine, there was a bit of a question: How will they manage against the latest that the Russians are planning to send against it?"

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There, he said, it has exceeded expectations.

A Ukrainian success

There is no independently confirmed figure for exactly how many missiles, drones, or airplanes Ukraine's air-defense systems, including the Patriots, have shot down, or for how many they have missed.

None of Ukraine's Patriot missile systems have been confirmed destroyed, though there have been Russian claims, but the system has been involved in confirmed kills of Russian aircraft and missiles. There has been clear photo evidence of some of the shootdowns.

Ukraine showed off the Patriot's lethality shortly after the first Patriot batteries arrived in country, when the Russians launched large missile and drone attacks on the capital city, Kyiv.

Mertens said that Russia's "whole goal was to make the attack so complex and so massive that they could get through and kill the Patriots from the start," but the Russians "failed completely."

"We were again, very much surprised by what we see now, what the effectiveness of the Patriot system seems to be," he said. They just stopped that attack."

The Patriot has been credited with other wins there since, and the system has "performed even better than it did in Saudi Arabia," Mertens said.

Karako said "since it's gone over there, it has been pretty dang good."

Bronk said that "Ukrainian operators have clearly been well trained and have worked out how to use the system in their own tactical scenarios extremely well." US Army personnel who helped train the Ukrainians recently told BI's Jake Epstein that they were "amazing" in their mastery of the system.

Rajan Menon, a director at the US think tank Defense Priorities, said "without the Patriot and other systems, Ukrainian cities would be in a very bad way. American-supplied and Western-supplied air defense has been absolutely critical."

Ryan said the Patriot "is incredibly effective. Those who think it's not just don't know what they're talking about."

He said Ukraine's success has come in part from how it has integrated the Patriots into its network of Soviet-era and NATO-donated systems to defeat Russia's attacks.

Ukraine has also praised the system. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said in January : "The Russians are shocked — and I'm telling you honestly — our partners are shocked that this system really works so strong."

Surprising wins

A surprising Ukrainian win, for some of the experts, has been Patriots shooting down Russian Khinzal missiles, weapons Russia had bragged were unstoppable .

Bronk said the air-launched ballistic missiles — which he described as "quasi-hypersonic" due to their speeds of more than five times the speed of sound and maneuverability but lack of certain other key defining characteristics of "hypersonic weapons" — are "really potentially very difficult to intercept as targets and the Patriot systems have been repeatedly and successfully engaging those."

Mertens said that Russia's grand claims about its missiles were "propaganda" but still described Ukraine shooting down Khinzals as "near amazing because before the war we really wondered if we could defend ourselves against Khinzal and if we could stop them from penetrating air defenses."

"Now there's far less of a question. It seems to be quite certain we can and Patriot can."

Jan Kallberg, a defense and security expert at the Centre for European Policy Analysis said: "I also think that Ukraine might have been more innovative when it comes to how to use them tactically."

He outlined a theory that a number of experts believe, that Ukraine has used the Patriots as part of daring schemes to shoot down Russian fighter jets .

Bronk said the Patriots have "actually performed way beyond people's expectations in a sort of long-range, anti-air ambush kind of capacity." He said Ukraine appeared to be exploiting the system's ability to have the launcher located significantly further forward than the radar guiding it.

He said the threat of Ukraine doing this means Russia has kept some jets further away from the front lines.

Ukraine has been praised for its use of air defenses, including its older models, to intercept most of Russia's drones and missiles. That work has also largely stopped Russia's much larger and more advanced air force from being able to operate close to or past the front lines.

If Russia's air force was able to fly across the country, the war would likely already have been lost and Kyiv left a smoking ruin, Mertens said.

An uncertain future

Despite their success, its not clear if the Patriots will be a lasting resource for Ukraine.

Ukraine likely only has a few, maybe only three, of the Patriot batteries, which Mertens noted is "not a lot."

"It's a very good system, but you can only do so much with three systems," he said.

The White House and Pentagon warned in January that the supply of Patriot interceptor missiles could soon be unsustainable due to their high cost: around $2 million to $4 million each. That expense fed into some of the initial skepticism over whether they should be sent in the first place.

And Ukraine says it's running low on air defense missiles overall.

A former advisor to Ukraine's government said in February that the number of Patriot missiles was "dropping to a critical level."

Mertens said that with the Patriots, "they're doing amazingly well. Will they have enough missiles to keep that up? That's the number one question."

Russia is trying to wear down Ukraine's missile stocks , including the Patriots, taking advantage of stalled US aid.

Bronk noted that there is a "massive global shortfall" in the supply of Patriot missiles, as the system is used in multiple countries like Saudi Arabia and the UAE. "This is a system that by dint of being highly effective, there is a global shortage of ammunition for it."

The problem with Patriot missiles for Ukraine mirrors its main obstacle in trying to fight Russia: A critical shortage of supplies and ammunition.

And air-defense supplies are one of the most important for Ukraine to have, Mertens said.

"Ukrainian air defenses are one of the great Ukrainian success stories of the war. Without them, the war might have been lost already. Keeping them functioning is utterly vital."

Watch: Russia flaunts intercontinental ballistic missile in new video

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  • Main content

Wave of Russian missiles strikes Ukraine’s Kyiv, wounds more than a dozen

Dozens of cruise and ballistic missiles shot down over Kyiv in the first large attack on Ukraine’s capital in 44 days.

Firefighters work at the site after a Russian attack in Kyiv, Ukraine, Thursday, March 21, 2024. Around 30 cruise and ballistic missiles were shot down over Kyiv on Thursday morning, said Serhii Popko, the head of Kyiv City Administration. The missiles were entering Kyiv simultaneously from various directions in a first missile attack on the capital in 44 days. (AP Photo/Vadim Ghirda)

At least 17 people have been injured after Russia launched a wave of missile strikes on Ukraine’s capital.

Local officials said the injuries were caused by falling debris from the missiles in Kyiv and the surrounding region.

Russia launches sweeping attack on Ukraine’s power sector, a sign of possible escalation

In this photo provided by Telegram Channel of Ukraine's Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal, smoke and fire rise over the Dnipro hydroelectric power plant after Russian attacks in Dnipro, Ukraine, on March 22.

KYIV, Ukraine (AP) — Russia unleashed one of its most devastating attacks against Ukraine’s electric sector on Friday, an aerial assault it said was retaliation for recent strikes inside Russia and which could signal an escalation of the war just days after President Vladimir Putin cemented his grip on power in a preordained election.

Many Ukrainians were plunged into darkness across several cities, at least five people were killed, and damage to the country’s largest hydroelectric plant briefly cut off power to a nuclear plant that has been a safety risk throughout the war.

Russia fired off more than 60 exploding drones and 90 missiles in what Ukrainian officials described as the most brutal attack against its energy infrastructure since the full-scale war began in early 2022.

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Kharkiv, Ukraine’s second-largest city, sustained the most damage, officials said, and the attack came a day after Russia had fired 31 missiles into the Ukrainian capital of Kyiv.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has been urging Western allies for weeks to provide it with additional air-defense systems and ammunition, a period in which $60 billion in U.S. aid has been held up by divisions in Congress.

“With Russian missiles, there are no delays, like with aid packages to our state,” Zelenskyy said. “It is important to understand the cost of delays and postponed decisions.”

Russia’s defense ministry called Friday attacks “strikes of retribution.” Ukraine has increased shelling of Russia’s Belgorod region along its northeast border and has launched drone strikes targeting Russian oil refineries and other energy facilities.

Ukraine’s latest strike inside Russia on Friday killed one and injured at least three, according to local officials.

Putin has described Ukrainian attacks on Belgorod and other regions as an effort to frighten residents and derail the highly orchestrated election that ended Sunday. And he vowed to strike back.

The day after he declared victory, Putin said Russia would seek to create a buffer zone inside eastern Ukraine to help protect against long-range strikes and cross-border raids.

Russia has made progress on the battlefield in recent months against exhausted Ukrainian troops struggling with a shortage of manpower and ammunition along the front line that stretches over 1,000 kilometers (620 miles).

When Putin invaded in 2022, he called it a “special military operation,” and his officials have mostly eschewed the word “war.” But in a change of rhetoric Friday that may herald a new escalation, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told a Russian newspaper that “when the collective West became a participant in this on the side of Ukraine, for us it already became a war.”

In the winter of 2022-23, Russia targeted Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, causing frequent blackouts across the country. Many in Ukraine and the West expected that Russia might repeat this strategy this winter, but Russia instead focused its strikes on Ukraine’s defense industries.

While launching the strikes, Russia has combined sophisticated ballistic and cruise missiles with waves of cheap Iranian-made Shahed drones in a bid to oversaturate and weaken Ukrainian air defenses.

Volodymyr Kudrytskyi, head of the national utility Ukrenergo, described Friday’s barrage as the largest assault on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure since the full-scale war began.

“This attack was especially dangerous because the adversary combined different means of attack, kamikaze drones, ballistic and cruise missiles,” he said.

Kudrytskyi said that Russia “tried to destroy every significant energy object powering the city of Kharkiv,” leaving at least 700,000 without electricity. He estimated that several hundred thousand customers in other regions were also left without power.

Oleksiy Kuleba, deputy head of Zelenskyy’s office, said that 31 people were injured in the strikes, that also left 200,000 people without constant access to electricity in the Odesa region. He said that power supplies for most of 400 000 customers in Dnipropetrovsk region was restored.

The huge Dnipro hydroelectric power plant, Ukraine’s largest, halted operation after sustaining at least six missile hits that caused massive damage. Ihor Syrota, the head of Ukrhidroenergo company overseeing the country’s hydroelectric plants, said it lost about a third of its generation capacity in a “significant loss for the Ukrainian energy system.”

Syrota said that the extent of damage to the plant remained unclear because its equipment has been buried under concrete and metal debris from the blasts, noting that the repairs will be a “long process.”

The strikes sparked a fire at the Dnipro plant, which supplies electricity to the nuclear power plant in Zaporizhzhia, the largest in Europe. Power to the nuclear plant was lost for several hours before it was restored, International Atomic Energy Agency head Rafael Grossi said early Friday. The Zaporizhzhia plant has been occupied by Russian troops since early days of the invasion, and fighting around it has raised the risk of a nuclear accident.

The dam at the hydroelectric station was not in danger of breaching, the country’s hydroelectric authority said. A dam breach could not only disrupt supplies to the nuclear plant but could potentially cause severe flooding similar to what occurred last year when a major dam at Kakhovka further down the Dnieper River collapsed.

Heintz reported from Tallinn, Estonia.

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Russia fired 31 missiles at Kyiv in the first major attack on Ukraine's capital in 44 days. Residents were woken by loud explosions as the missiles arrived at roughly the same time from different directions, city officials said. March 21, 2024

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  1. MILITARY: Russia’s new cruise missiles infographic

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  2. Russia’s new “unlimited”-range nuclear cruise missile can fly just 22

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  3. How many air-launched Kh-101 missiles Russia is able to produce

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  4. Cruise missile

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  5. What Is a Cruise Missile and How Far Can It Travel? Russia Uses Eight

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  6. Russia's hypersonic missile-armed ship to patrol global seas

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COMMENTS

  1. Kalibr (missile family)

    Kalibr (missile family) The Novator Kalibr (Калибр, caliber ), also referred to as 3M54-1 Kalibr, 3M14 Biryuza (Бирюза, turquoise ), ( NATO reporting name SS-N-27 Sizzler and SS-N-30A) is a family of Russian cruise missiles developed by NPO Novator ( OKB-8 ). It first saw service in 1994. There are ship-launched, submarine-launched ...

  2. What is the Real Price of russian Missiles: About the Cost of 'Kalibr

    The only figure known for sure where it comes from is the "cost" of a "Kalibr" cruise missile - 6.5 million US dollars per unit. Most likely, the information comes from the India-russia 2006 contract on the purchase of 28 Klub-S 3M-14E missiles (export version of the "Kalibr") worth $184 million. This way, a single unit should cost 6.5 million.

  3. Forbes estimates Jan. 2 mass attack cost Russia nearly $620 million

    Forbes calculated the cost based on the estimates that one Russian Kh-101 cruise missile costs $13 million, a Kalibr cruise missile costs $ 6.5 million, a Kinzhal ballistic missile costs $15 million, an Iskander costs $3 million, and one Shahed 136 drone costs $50,000, among others.

  4. 3M22 Zircon

    The 3M22 Tsirkon also spelled as 3M22 Zircon (Russian: Циркон, NATO reporting name: SS-N-33) is a scramjet-powered, nuclear-capable cruise missile produced by Russia for the Russian Navy, with launch platforms on frigates and submarines. The missile has a reported top speed of Mach 9. The weapon was first used during Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

  5. Kh-101 / Kh-102

    The Kh-101 / Kh-102 is a line of conventional and nuclear capable air-launched cruise missiles (ALCM) developed and deployed by Russia. A stealthy missile, the Kh-101/-102 is designed to defeat air defense systems by flying at low, terrain-hugging altitudes to avoid radar systems. The Kh-101 carries a conventional warhead, while the Kh-102 is ...

  6. Kh-59

    The Kh-59 Ovod ( Russian: Х -59 Овод ' Gadfly '; AS-13 'Kingbolt') is a Russian cruise missile with a two-stage solid-fuel propulsion system and 200 km range. The Kh-59M Ovod-M ( AS-18 'Kazoo') is a variant with a bigger warhead and turbojet engine. It is primarily a land-attack missile; the Kh-59MK variant targets ships.

  7. More Than a Tomahawk: What's the Deal With Russia's Kalibr Cruise Missile?

    In compensation, the inertia-guided missiles have a range of between one thousand and 1,500 miles. A third class of Kalibr missiles—the 91RT and 91RE—is used to deploy antisubmarine torpedoes ...

  8. Putin's Major Aerial Attack on Ukraine Cost Russia $1.2 ...

    The Institute for the Study of War think tank in a Friday assessment noted Forbes "previously reported that Russian Kh-101 cruise missiles cost an estimated $13 million per missile."

  9. What to know about Russia's Kalibr cruise missiles fired in Ukraine

    Russia said the 3M-14 Kalibr cruise missile attack destroyed a major Ukrainian arsenal. Understanding the weapons that have drawn the world's attention since Russia's invasion of Ukraine. A v ...

  10. How big a loss to Russia is the sinking of the Moskva missile cruiser

    A sailor looks at the Russian missile cruiser Moskva moored in the Ukrainian Black Sea port of Sevastopol, Ukraine 10, 2013. REUTERS/Stringer Purchase Licensing Rights, opens new tab

  11. Russia fired dozens of missiles at Ukraine, but at what cost?

    Ukraine says Russia fired 83 cruise missiles on Monday and 28 on Tuesday, and that it shot down at least 43 of them on Monday and 20 on Tuesday. ... Each Kalibr cruise missile is estimated to cost ...

  12. Prized Russian Ship Was Hit by Missiles, U.S. Officials Say

    Houthi rebels in Yemen fired multiple anti-ship missiles at a U.S. Navy destroyer in two separate attacks in 2016, which drew retaliatory Tomahawk cruise missile attacks in response. While the U.S ...

  13. Russia's Estimated Storage of Cruise Missiles, May 2023

    The massive Russian missile attacks against Ukraine in recent days together with evidence of the increasing efficiency of Ukraine's air and missile defense make it necessary to re-examine the state of Russia's arsenal of cruise, ballistic and air-launched missiles with a range of more than 300 kilometers (Ukrainska Pravda, May 17; The Moscow Times; Kyiv Independent, May 18).

  14. Despite Sanctions, Russian Cruise Missiles Were Made Recently

    Russian Cruise Missiles Were Made Just Months Ago Despite Sanctions. Weapons investigators in Kyiv found that at least one Russian Kh-101 cruise missile used in widespread attacks there on Nov. 23 ...

  15. Ukraine Weapons

    As Russia intensifies its cruise missile strikes inside Ukraine, surface-to-air defenses are becoming critical. ... Cost per unit: $178,000 per missile | Units pledged by the U.S.: 8,500 missiles ...

  16. Here Is What Russia's Military Aircraft And Missiles Actually Cost

    The ministry demanded compensation for a November 2018 delay in the delivery of a batch of 10 R-77-1 missiles, with a total value of 299 million rubles, which means that one missile cost 29.9 million rubles at 2018 prices. Medium-range R-77-1 air-to-air missiles under a Su-35S, ready to fly a Ukraine mission.

  17. Forbes estimates Russia's Oct. 10 missile strikes cost $400-700 million

    Russia launched 84 cruise missiles and 24 drones all across Ukraine on Oct. 10, with an average total value of $400-700 million, according to Forbes. Forbes calculated the cost based on the assumption that most of the missiles Russia launched were the expensive and highly accurate Kh-101, S-300, and Tornado-S missiles, while the remaining were aimed at overloading Ukraine's air defenses.

  18. Russian Kh-101 cruise missiles: features, expenses, and deployment

    Regarding the cost of the missiles, estimates vary significantly. Forbes Ukraine estimated one Kh-101 missile at $13 million, calculated as part of Russia's expenses during shelling in Ukraine. However, Defense Express estimates the cost of this weaponry for Russia to be much lower, at $1.2 million per missile.

  19. Russian Attack Leaves Over a Million in Ukraine Without Electricity

    Then, around 3 a.m., Russian fighter jets fired cruise missiles, followed by ballistic missiles and then hypersonic Kinzhal missiles, one of the most sophisticated weapons in Russia's arsenal.

  20. 8 Cruise Missiles That Hit Ukraine Cost Russia $100M

    Tuesday's cruise missile strikes carried out by Russia cost $91 million ; The Kh-101 missile costs $13 million, a Kalibr $6.5 million, an Iskander $3 million, an Onyx $1.25 million, a Kh-22 $1 million

  21. Cruise missile

    The production cost of a V-1 was only a small fraction of that of a V-2 supersonic ballistic missile with a similar-sized warhead. Unlike the V-2, the initial deployments of the V-1 required stationary launch ramps which were susceptible to bombardment. ... Russia has Kh-55SM cruise missiles, ...

  22. Ukraine's Patriot kills of Russian planes and missiles have turned a US

    The MIM-104 Patriot missile system is a ground-based, mobile surface-to-air missile battery that can down crewed and uncrewed aircraft, cruise missiles, and short-range and tactical ballistic ...

  23. Ukraine downs Russian hypersonic missile with US Patriot system

    The system costs about $4m per missile, and the launchers cost $10m each, according to analysts. At such a cost, it was widely thought Ukraine would only use the Patriots against Russian aircraft ...

  24. 2 killed, 1.2M without power after Russian missile barrage slams ...

    The Air Force said its air defense systems shot down 37 cruise missiles and 55 Iranian-made ... It is important to understand the cost of delays and delayed decisions," he said, renewing his calls ...

  25. Wave of Russian missiles strikes Ukraine's Kyiv, wounds more than a

    Wave of Russian missiles strikes Ukraine's Kyiv, wounds more than a dozen. Dozens of cruise and ballistic missiles shot down over Kyiv in the first large attack on Ukraine's capital in 44 days.

  26. Russia launches sweeping attack on Ukraine's power sector, a sign of

    Kharkiv, Ukraine's second-largest city, sustained the most damage, officials said, and the attack came a day after Russia had fired 31 missiles into the Ukrainian capital of Kyiv.

  27. Kh-55

    The Kh-55 (Russian: Х-55, also known as RKV-500; NATO reporting name: AS-15 "Kent") is a Soviet/Russian subsonic air-launched cruise missile, designed by MKB Raduga in the 1970s. It has a range of up to 2,500 km (1,350 nmi) and can carry nuclear warheads. Kh-55 is launched exclusively from bomber aircraft and has spawned a number of conventionally armed variants mainly for tactical use, such ...

  28. Kyiv comes under Russian attack from ballistic, cruise missiles

    Russia fired 31 missiles at Kyiv in the first major attack on Ukraine's capital in 44 days. Residents were woken by loud explosions as the missiles arrived at roughly the same time from different ...

  29. Ukrainian soldier downs Russian missile with US Stinger system

    The video showcases a Ukrainian soldier taking down a Russian cruise missile, likely part of the Kh-101 and Kh-55/555 series, using the FIM-92 Stinger system. ... the Stinger's technology is more ...