will travel prices go down in 2024

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Airfares Have Dropped. Here’s Why They Could Go Even Lower in 2024

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Inflation has hit most of the economy, but that’s hardly the case with airfare. Not only are airfares down 6% year-over-year based on January 2024 prices, but they’re even down 15% versus a decade ago. That’s according to consumer price index data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics published in February. Some experts predict airfares to international destinations will drop even lower in 2024.

According to the American Express Global Business Travel Air Monitor 2024 report, prices on certain international routes may drop as much as 12%.

Here’s how AmEx GBT anticipates average economy airfares will change in 2024 versus 2023, for a sampling of regions:

South America to North America: Drop by 11.9%.

North America to Central America: Drop by 7.8%.

North America to Asia: Drop by 7.5%.

Asia to North America: Drop by 5.2%.

North America to Europe: Drop by 3.5%.

Europe to North America: Drop by 1.2%.

So, why are airfares dropping?

Existing airlines are offering more flights and routes

2023 was a huge year for travel, with several records broken. The U.S. State Department issued a record 24 million passport books and cards during the 2023 fiscal year, signaling increased interest in travel abroad.

Katy Nastro, a spokesperson for airfare tracking website Going, has seen an increase in international flights booked as well.

“For example, in 2023, almost 14% more people flew between Costa Rica and the U.S. than pre-pandemic,” Nastro says.

Airlines added 10% more flights between the U.S. and Central America in 2023 versus 2022, according to scheduling data analyzed by Going from aviation analytics company Cirium Diio. In 2024, airlines are expected to add another 10%.

Last year’s high traveler volume has prompted airlines to increase flight schedules to other parts of the world. For example, Delta Air Lines announced that — in light of a record-setting summer 2023 — it would launch its largest-ever transatlantic schedule for summer 2024. That includes new daily service from New York to Naples, Italy, beginning in May, as well as more flights from the U.S. to Paris; Venice, Italy; Barcelona, Spain; and Dublin.

For travel from North America to Asia, there are 5.5 million more airline seats for sale in the first half of 2024 versus the same period in 2023. That’s a 35% year-over-year increase, says Jeremy Quek, principal global air practice line lead at AmEx GBT.

“More availability in turn can help with pricing,” Nastro says. “Heading into 2024, in theory, this should reduce overall prices.”

Budget airlines are bringing down prices

New, smaller airlines (particularly low-cost carriers ) are also competing for customers, which helps bring down airfares industrywide.

For example, Norse Atlantic Airways is a Norwegian low-cost airline that started flying to the U.S. in 2022. Now it operates 13 routes between the U.S. and five European cities. Come May 2024, Norse will launch summer flights between New York and Athens, Greece.

» Learn more: When to fly on low-cost carriers versus full-service airlines

A return to normalcy after COVID-19

Quek says much of the phenomenon of falling airfares is a post-COVID-19 pandemic recalibration, considering so many airlines reduced schedules in 2020.

“Airline schedules, especially on long-haul international flights, are set at least six months out,” Quek says. “Restarting a route can take even longer. As countries announced border reopenings, airlines were constrained on how quickly they could reintroduce flights.”

And it’s not just schedules returning to normal, but airfares too. Airfares originating in the U.S. hit all-time highs in May 2022, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics data, when the summer of “revenge travel” was in full swing. Quek says this year’s price decreases are largely a return to pre-pandemic equilibrium rather than an extraordinary drop in prices.

Airfares are falling, but don't wait to book

Though airfares are falling, don’t delay booking in hopes that they’ll fall further. Going advises booking two to eight months out for international travel.

» Learn more: The best days to book a flight

“Airfares tend to increase the closer you get to booking,” Nastro says. “In reality, it is far more likely for airlines to sell tickets at higher prices at the last minute.”

This article was written by NerdWallet and was originally published by The Associated Press.

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Will International Flight Prices Go Down in 2024?

• Travel Tips
• What's Up at TIK

As you’ve likely experienced firsthand in recent years, airline ticket prices have experienced significant fluctuations, catching the attention of globetrotters, industry experts, and even specialized travel companies. Our culinary travel company, The International Kitchen , has also noted these shifts, as they’ve greatly impacted our clientele and their ability to enjoy everything worldwide cuisine has to offer.

The current international flight pricing trends highlight a mix of hopeful dips and challenging spikes, especially when compared to pre-COVID-19 pandemic levels. Fueled primarily by the after-effects of the pandemic, global inflation, and other interconnected economic factors, there’s a prevailing sentiment in the market that flight prices are expected to drop. However, understanding the reasons behind these unpredictable price movements requires delving into the intricate web of supply, demand, and external disruptors that the aviation industry currently grapples with.

Recent Overview of Airfares

Tracing the trajectory of airfares over recent years provides helpful insights into the activity of airlines.

2022: The Year of Skyrocketing Prices

The aviation industry witnessed a tumultuous year in 2022, with airline tickets seeing an unprecedented surge in prices. Specifically, summer 2022 stands out as the height of flight prices, leaving travelers frustrated and industry stakeholders astonished. Several factors contributed to this dramatic upswing, primarily escalating fuel prices, a pent-up demand for travel after pandemic-induced lulls, and critically, a decrease in airline capacities due to out-of-service planes and reduced staffing.

2023: Fall from the Peak

As we left the highs of 2022 behind, a trend began emerging in flight prices. Airline tickets, especially for domestic routes, started witnessing a downward trajectory. This culminated in June 2023, with a marked drop in domestic ticket prices, offering some relief to travelers. However, while domestic fares showed promise, international flights continued to bear the brunt of elevated prices, influenced by the ripple effects of the previous year’s challenges.

Decoding the Drop: Why Flight Prices Took a Dive

When we analyze the factors behind the recent decline in airline ticket prices, we see a complex mix of industry dynamics, external pressures, and evolving consumer behavior.

Supply vs. Demand: The Airline Equation

The fluctuation in airline prices is closely tied to the delicate balance between supply and demand. Airlines have recently been proactively addressing the supply side, with strategies like reintroducing mothballed planes to the skies and aggressive hiring sprees. As a result, more seats became available, making way for the possibility of cheap flights and ensuring that the flight prices drop was not just a momentary blip.

Fueling the Decline: Stabilized Fuel Prices

The cost of jet fuel has always been a significant determinant of ticket prices, with higher jet fuel prices leading to more expensive tickets. Recently, we’ve seen a small dip in per-gallon fuel prices, offering airlines a breather. This downward trend in fuel costs has undeniably played its part in making flights more affordable, prompting a much-welcomed airline price drop for consumers.

Seasonal Shifts: When Calendars Influence Costs

Air travel has its own seasonal rhythms, with certain periods traditionally witnessing a decline in prices. Historical patterns have often showcased post-summer dips in flight prices. However, projections for 2023 indicate that this drop might be steeper than usual, presenting travelers with a great opportunity to grab those cheap flights they’ve been eyeing.

International vs. Domestic Flights

Considering the contrasting landscapes of international and domestic flight pricing offers a nuanced perspective on where the air travel market stands today. Let’s take a look!

Domestic Flights: A Welcomed Respite

The airline industry has recently been witness to a significant drop in domestic airline ticket prices. Indicators from various market analyses suggest that the trend is here to stay, with airfare going down even further in the near future. Every traveler is asking themselves, “will flight prices keep dropping?” Our team at TIK sure hopes so!

International Skies: Holding the High Ground

Despite the optimistic trajectory of domestic flights, international routes have firmly held onto their high prices. But what’s intriguing is the resilience of the global traveler. Even with airfares on the higher side, there’s been a notable surge in long-haul bookings, indicating that wanderlust beats cost concerns for many. The travel platform Hopper paints a detailed picture, predicting that while 2023 may still see elevated international airfare, the price disparity with previous years might be narrowing.

Challenges Still Facing Airlines

While there’s optimism in some parts of the industry, a deeper dive reveals lingering issues that carriers must navigate in these turbulent times.

Operational Issues

As the average airfare fluctuates, airlines grapple with a storm of operational issues. The industry has been plagued with surges in cancellations, delays, and lost luggage. These challenges, combined with continuing high prices, paint a daunting picture. Major carriers haven’t been immune either, with several experiencing severe operational meltdowns.

Staffing Woes

On the ground, airlines are facing quite a few staffing challenges. As travel demand for round-trip flights soars, the shadow of understaffing lingers heavily over the industry. To counteract the chaos, many airlines have made the hard choice of cutting routes and capping flights. This approach, while pragmatic, has further underscored the complexity of meeting traveler expectations in such tumultuous times.

Navigating the Skies: Tips for Cost-Effective Travel

As the aviation landscape continues to evolve, savvy travelers can employ strategic measures to ensure they’re getting the best bang for their buck.

When to Book

To snag the best prices and beat the ever-fluctuating airfare prices, knowing when to book is crucial. Historical trends and recent data suggest specific windows that offer travelers the chance to secure cheaper fares. So, keep an eye on the calendar to make the most of your budget.

Choosing Your Airline

Don’t just stick to the usual suspects. Upstart international airlines have been making waves in the industry, often offering competitive and sometimes even lower prices than their established counterparts. These carriers might just be your ticket to a cheaper fare and a new travel experience.

Looking Out for Deals and Promotions

In the quest for the most cost-effective journey, always be on the lookout for flight deals. Airlines frequently roll out promotions, sales, and destination-specific discounts. If you’re flexible and proactive, these deals can substantially reduce your travel expenses, ensuring you get the lowest prices on your next adventure.

Taking Flight in 2023 or 2024: A Fare Conclusion

For those eager to embark on international trips, now might be the time to act. Despite the highs and lows of airfare, the world’s beauty and cultures remains constant. And for the culinary enthusiasts, why not turn your next journey into a gastronomic adventure ? The International Kitchen offers curated culinary trips, blending the thrill of travel with the art of cuisine.

So, as we head into the latter part of 2023 and beyond, don’t just dream – contact us , book flights, and let your palate explore the world. Your next destination, culinary delight, and unforgettable experience await!

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JUST WAIT: When Do Prices Drop For Flights? (Updated 2024)

Answer: Prices drop for flights around 60 days away from departure. This is a loose rule with a window of 45-90 days out, but I usually find my best prices about two months away from traveling. 

Prices also drop based on sales by the airlines and other promotions for specific destinations. These promotions have very stringent rules, so make sure to read the fine print carefully. 

The table above shows the price changes between 120 days to 30 days away from departure. I used Google Flights to check prices leaving from Dallas, Texas.

The consensus shows that about 60 days away from flying shows the biggest price drop for flights. Again, this is a vague rule but 90-45 days away is the sweet spot with plenty of low cost flights available compared to 4 months away.

Just remember, there are no guarantees with flight prices. Airlines may choose to increase or decrease prices for any reason at any time. The information in this post comes from my personal experiences and best practices when searching for the best airline prices.

Prices Drop For Flights During Airline Sales

From exploring different flights, you have an idea about which airlines have the cheapest flights for your destination. Head to their website and sign up for their newsletter and follow them on social media. 

All airlines showcase huge sales every year based on holidays and activities, highlighting specific destinations. 

To advertise these sales, airlines usually first send out an email promo that outlines all the details. Second, they push hard on social media to all their followers, letting them know about the significant discounts. 

These sales do have a few caveats to keep in mind.

These sales usually only advertise a super cheap one way trip, but the return flight can be inflated. These round trip flights have an appearance of extra savings but really cost you more. 

These cheap flights are nonstop to one destination. No stopovers. If there isn’t a direct flight for the airports you need, you basically need to build your own flight which gets complicated, leaving you to pick up the pieces of your broken itinerary if there are unexpected delays or cancelations.

The flights are far out in advance and at unusual times when most people don’t want to fly.

These prices do not include baggage unless specified differently in the promo. Based on the airline, baggage costs $30-$60 one way, making those price savings obsolete. 

Do Flight Prices Go Down Closer To Departure Dates?

Usually, no. The closer to the departure date, the more expensive the price. More seats tend to fill the closer to the departure date. As more tickets sell for any given flight, the demand increases creating a jump in ticket prices. 

Sometimes for less popular destinations or if there is an unusually large amount of cancelations, prices may drop for flights in order to fill the seats. 

I personally hate this method of buying tickets as everything is left to chance. Do yourself a favor and plan ahead about 60 days away. 

How Often Do Flight Prices Drop?

Prices fluctuate daily and weekly based on demand, cancelations, sales and world circumstances. Airlines use specific algorithms that adjust prices based on these conditions and unfortunately as a consumer, we are left to the mercy of the airline gods. 

There are, however, some simple travel rules that give customers an advantage to saving on their flights. 

The day of your departure affects prices significantly. Finding the cheapest day to fly usually falls mid week on Wednesdays, but can just as easily fall on any other day of the week based on demand. 

Time of year also is a huge factor on ticket prices, as traveling during low or off peak seasons will see prices drop for flights. 

How Much Do Prices Drop for Flights?

When prices drop, they fall anywhere from 10%-30% about 60 days away from departure . Airlines need to make a minimum amount of money per passenger to accommodate the time, space, and fuel used for the aircraft. 

Distance of the flight also plays into effect. Flights from Denver to Las Vegas are barely an hour in the air, so prices will usually be lower. When prices drop for this flight, expect a less significant discount than a flight from Denver to Paris. 

When Do Plane Ticket Prices Rise?

Plane ticket prices increase due to demand. The more people that need to fly on a specific day and time, the higher the price. 

Why? Because the airlines know based on years of research and current customer data what people are willing to pay for these specific flights.

What increased the demand? Usually traveling during a certain time of year for a specific destination. Peak travel times gain the largest ticket prices because more people need to travel and are willing to pay the premium. 

When Is The Best Day To Book Flights?

There is NO BEST DAY to book flights. Some resources promise a significant dip in prices during mid week or on weekends, but from my personal experience and tons of research, the day you buy tickets does NOT affect the price. 

So the ongoing myth that flight prices go down on Tuesday or Thursdays is false. There is no evidence that supports this theory, and I haven’t seen any price decreases based on these days either. 

Do Flight Prices Drop At Night?

No. Prices do not specifically drop because of the time of day. If prices do drop at night, it’s coincidently part of the airline’s algorithm deciding to drop prices at that particular time. 

From what I understand, there is no evidence of consist night time price drops, and people shouldn’t stay up to the wee hours of the morning hoping to snag a discount. 

Will Flight Prices Go Down For Christmas And Other Holidays?

No. Prices usually go up around the holidays as there is a usual influx of travelers. Airlines know and expect this, so prices go up to meet the demand. 

Airlines will advertise “holiday sales” on a few select days and times around a popular holiday which sell for super cheap, but the rest of the tickets sell for inflated prices. 

This works similar to car dealerships advertising one really cheap car to bring people through the door, who quickly learn the advertised car sold days ago. Car dealerships will then flip the customers to other cars or deals and earn the sale. 

Airlines work the same way. Since you’re browsing their website and see the sold out cheap tickets, panic buying ensues leaving you thinking, “The prices are going insane! I better buy now before tickets go even higher!” So you settle and buy.

Holidays make us all a little crazy and airlines take advantage.

Remember, airlines compete with each other and try to commit people’s travel plans before they browse other airlines and maybe find a better deal.

Exception To Holiday Travel: prices drop for flights if you depart on the exact day of a significant national holiday such as New Year, Christmas Day, and Thanksgiving Day. 

These holidays revolve around family and time with loved ones, so few people travel on these exact days. If your plans are flexible and you don’t mind cutting your holiday short, search for your flights and check the discounts available. 

What Month Do Prices Drop For Flights?

Prices do not drop based on the month, but more on the destination and the demand for flights during that travel season. Paris’ peak travel time is the summer, so flying from May-August will cost more than flying during January- March. 

Booking travel for peak times will have a higher price than traveling during off peak times. The month you book the flight itself does not affect the price. 

Sign Up For Google Flights Price Alert

If you are hunting for the best flight deals, sign up for Google Flights price alerts. 

Sign in to Google, plug in your cities for departure and arrival with the dates you are exploring and click the “Track Prices” button in the upper left hand part of the charts. 

You will automatically be sent information when prices increase or decrease for your flights. Many travel sites have this feature, but I trust Google Flights the most since they show you prices directly from the airline so you can book directly with them. 

Beware Of The Layover

Just because prices drop for flights on the days you want to travel, doesn’t mean it’s the best option. Often airlines, to show the best prices, will plan a mind-numbingly long layover , leaving you stranded at an airport for six plus hours and sometimes overnight.

The lowest price doesn’t always equal the best deal…if that makes sense. 

Take a little extra time to look through the different days. Although one day doesn’t show the best price that week, the flight pattern is more convenient with a quick layover or even a nonstop flight to your destination. The extra money is worth the extra time.

If you were wondering when do prices drop for flights, you have the answer, plus extra information that will help you search for the best airline ticket prices. Yes, it’s an arduous process, but implementing these details pay off huge when you get to buy extra food on your trip.

This is plenty of information, but always keep in mind that the best travel deal is the one that fits your budget. Don’t let analysis paralysis keep you from your travels. 

Do yourself a favor: don’t overthink the flights and buy the tickets. 

Chris Kretzer has traveled the world visiting over 35 countries and eating his way through every city. With his wife Tiarra, they explore different food cultures and create food guides, podcasts , and travel articles helping everyone experience the world through food.

Flying to these US cities will be a lot cheaper in 2024

(NEXSTAR) – After soaring airfare costs in recent years, 2024 may be kinder to travelers’ wallets – especially in select U.S. cities, according to a new study.

According to Kayak’s 2024 travel report released in November, “domestic airfare will drop 16% in 2024 compared to 2023,” with the cost of renting a car (14%) or booking a hotel (10%) falling as well.

Analysts at Kayak compared customer searches between mid-March and mid-September of 2022 for travel in 2023, with the same time period in 2023 for flights in 2024.

“A combination of historically high prices last year combined with skyrocketing international travel demand could be forcing airlines to cut domestic costs, leading to more savings on your domestic travel,” Kayak’s Chief Economist Jake Bouvrie told Nexstar in a statement. “With domestic prices down across the board for flights, hotels and rental cars, if budget is a priority, 2024 may be a great year to explore right here in the United States.”

In November, domestic airfare was over 12% cheaper on average than the same time in 2022, according to Bureau of Labor statistics, but that number is far lower for certain destination cities in the U.S., Kayak found.

At the top of the bargain list is Philadelphia, which saw a year-over-year decrease of 39% in the average cost, followed by Fairbanks, Alaska at 37% and Minneapolis at 34%.

If you’re thinking about booking an international flight, the outlook is less encouraging for travelers hoping to score a deal – Kayak says international airfare is up 10% year over year.

To minimize flight costs, Kayak data shows that booking eight months in advance is the sweet spot, with average savings of between 8 and 18%.

Earlier this month, the International Air Transport Association (IATA) raised its projected net profit margin to 2.7%, or $25.7 billion. The industry is also projecting an historic number of air travelers in 2024 – 4.7 billion, which exceeds 2019’s pre-pandemic total of 4.5 billion.

Despite the projection, the high cost of borrowing money and limited capacity will make growth more difficult, according to the IATA.

“Considering the major losses of recent years, the $25.7 billion net profit expected in 2024 is a tribute to aviation’s resilience,” said Willie Walsh, IATA’s Director General. “People love to travel and that has helped airlines to come roaring back to pre-pandemic levels of connectivity. The speed of the recovery has been extraordinary; yet it also appears that the pandemic has cost aviation about four years of growth. From 2024 the outlook indicates that we can expect more normal growth patterns for both passenger and cargo.”

For the latest news, weather, sports, and streaming video, head to WRIC ABC 8News.

Inflation surge has held off interest rate cuts, hurt stocks. Will it slow down in 2024?

Since a key inflation report this month showed an unexpected surge in consumer prices, hopes for a flurry of interest rate cuts this year have dimmed, the stock market has tumbled and an upbeat mood on the economy has soured a bit.

But inflation is still on course to gradually ease this year and in 2025, top forecasters say.  The recent price acceleration largely centers on a few categories, such as rent, car insurance and medical care.

While some economists say the cost of such services will continue to rise sharply in 2024, others expect a slowdown that could still allow the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates more than markets now anticipate.    

“Despite the hand-wringing, there are good reasons to be optimistic that inflation will soon resume moderating and approach the Fed’s (2%) target by the end of the year,” Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Analytics, wrote in a note to clients.

Barclays economist Pooja Sriram disagrees. “Inflation in some categories…will just be stickier than expected,” she said in an interview.

Protect your assets: Best high-yield savings accounts of 2023

With inflation a main reason President Biden is trailing former President Trump in polls, its course could determine whether interest rates will fall in coming months and possibly tip the scales in the November election.

How high was inflation last month?

The Labor Department’s worrisome report on the consumer price index (CPI) revealed that overall prices rose 3.5% annually in March, down from a 40-year high of 9.1% in June 2022 but up from 3.2% the previous month. A core inflation measure that strips out volatile food and energy items and is watched more closely by the Fed was unchanged at 3.8%.

The report marked the third straight hot inflation reading to start the year and a reversal from a steady drop-off last fall.

Will the Fed cut interest rates in 2024?

Fed officials, who have lifted their key rate to a 23-year high of 5.25% to 5.5% to fight inflation, recently have doused hopes for a June decrease. And markets that forecast the rate expect as little as one cut this year, down from three cuts just a few weeks ago. Since the CPI report, the Dow Jones industrial average has shed 380 points and the S&P 500 index has fallen 2.7%, even after a partial rebound early this week on strong corporate earnings news.

What is PCE inflation?

Another inflation report due out Friday could provide some solace. The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index – which the Fed follows more closely - has been running lower than CPI because certain products and services have different weights. Economists polled by Bloomberg estimate overall PCE prices rose 2.6% annually in March, up from 2.5% the prior month, while core PCE prices increased 2.7%, down from 2.8%.

PCE inflation, however, may have risen more sharply last month after Thursday's first-quarter GDP report said core PCE prices rose at an annual rate of 3.7% in the first quarter, more than the 3.4% economists had projected.

Although prices of goods such as used cars, furniture and appliances have declined as COVID-related supply chain troubles have resolved, service prices have jumped, in part because of increasing wages.

Here’s a breakdown of what’s keeping inflation elevated and how long it could take for it to return to normal.

Rent is by far the biggest culprit in the inflation run-up. It rose 0.4% in March and 5.7% the past year. And it’s up 23% since before the pandemic. That’s significant because housing contributed a whopping 36% to inflation last month, according to the CPI.

Rent soared during COVID as Americans living with roommates or family moved into their own homes for health reasons but faced a shortage of units available for purchase. If not for skyrocketing rent, core CPI inflation would be at 2.4%, instead of 3.8%, notes economist Bob Schwartz of Oxford Economics

For more than a year, rent for people moving into new apartments has fallen or flatlined. That has been expected to filter into renewals of existing leases on the belief that landlords fearful of losing tenants to rivals down the block would raise rents just modestly when existing leases expire.

But that hasn’t happened in part because landlords realize most tenants won’t go to the trouble of moving to save even $200 to $300 a month, says economist Matt Colyar of Moody’s Analytics.

“There’s a lot of inertia,” Sriram says.

A strong economy with healthy wage growth also gives tenants a reason to pay up and stay put, says Nomura economist Aichi Amemiya.

But analysts expect a shift in the second half of the year. There are lots of new apartment buildings opening and that should prod landlords to at least hold the line on rent, Colyar says. Tenants, however, are only surveyed by Labor every six months and so it takes time for moderating rent rises to show up in the CPI data, Colyar and Sriram say.

And while apartment rent increases already have slowed substantially, rent inflation for single-family homes will take longer to pull back and it carries more weight in the report, Goldman Sachs wrote in a note to clients.

Colyar expects a drop in yearly rent increases overall from 5.7% to 4.5% by December.

Auto insurance and repairs

New car prices have been virtually flat the past year as supply-chain snarls have resolved. Car insurance and repairs should follow since they're linked to the price of auto parts.

Instead, insurance rates jumped 2.6% in March and 22.2% annually while car repair costs increased 1.7% and 8.2% from a year ago.

Sriram doesn’t expect much relief in the near term. Both auto insurance and repairs are affected by technicians’ wages, which have risen briskly, she says. Many baby boomers have been retiring and fewer young people are going into the field.

Colyar says the bigger reason for rapidly rising insurance rates is that providers didn’t properly figure the risk of accidents into premiums a few years ago and they’re now catching up.

But he says insurance and repair cost increases have slowed as vehicle prices have stabilized, and the big leaps in both last month likely were blips. He expects inflation in those categories to downshift in the coming months.

Computer electronics and software

Holiday promotions drove down electronics and software prices at the end of 2023 and the end of those discounts propelled prices higher early this year, Goldman Sachs says. But the discounts largely have played out and prices should decline the rest of the year, Goldman says.

Medical care

Hospital service costs rose 1% in March and they’re up 7.5% annually.

Americans are undergoing elective surgeries and other procedures they put off during COVID, fueling strong demand, Sriram says. Meanwhile, many nurses, medical technicians and other professionals left the field during COVID, triggering labor shortages, Colyar says. The higher prices are still making their way into contracts between hospitals and health insurance providers, Sriram and Colyar say.

Colyar expects continued sturdy price increases for health services but not an acceleration.

Financial services

A roaring stock market swelled financial portfolios and drove up the commissions paid to investment firms, which are typically based on an annual percentage of the assets they manage. Financial services have a bigger weight in the PCE index than the CPI.

Recently, however, stock markets generally have fallen and that should lead to a drop in financial services inflation, Schwartz says.

Other services

The cost of services such as haircuts, dry cleaning and funerals also have advanced solidly in the past year, rising 5.4% overall. A measure of services inflation excluding housing that the Fed watches closely leaped by 0.6% in March.

Siriram points to labor costs.

Although wage growth has eased along with pandemic-induced labor shortages, Sriram notes that average monthly job growth of 276,000 this year signals that employers are still hunting for workers and willing pay them high wages.

A flood of immigrants have joined Americans returning to the work force after the pandemic, increasing the labor supply and softening pay increases, Colyar says. Also, the ranks of new hires and people quitting jobs have dipped below pre-COVID levels, underscoring that employers have growing leverage.

Yearly wage growth averaged 4.7% in March, down from 5% the previous month and 6.7% in June 2022, according to the Atlanta Fed's wage tracker. That’s still well above the 3.5% pace that aligns with the Fed’s 2% inflation goal.

But in March, just 21% of small businesses planned to increase employee compensation over the next three months, down from 30% in November, Schwartz notes, citing a survey by the National Federation of Independent Business.

What's the bottom line?

Sriram predicts that core PCE inflation will barely budge in the coming months and end the year at 2.8%, allowing the Fed to lower its key interest rate just once this year before cutting it four times in 2025.

Restaurant bankruptcy Restaurant chain Tijuana Flats files for bankruptcy, announces closure of 11 locations

Colyar is more sanguine, largely because of slowing pay increases. He looks for inflation to approach the Fed's 2% goal by year's end. He forecasts a rate cut in September, followed by another in December.

Travels with Ted

Will RV Prices Go Down in 2024? (Plus How to Get a Deal)

This post may contain affiliate links. See our affiliate disclaimer here.

As we approach 2024, the RV industry is emerging from a period of adjustment following the COVID-19 pandemic, marked by supply chain disruptions, fluctuating consumer demands and a shift in lifestyle preferences.

In 2023, the industry has been working through these challenges, with manufacturers and dealers alike adapting to the evolving landscape. Now, the pivotal question is: Will RV prices go down in 2024?

• 1 Will RV Prices Go Down in 2024?
• 2.1 A Year of Decline
• 2.2 The Used RV Market: A Mixed Bag
• 3.1 New RV Price Predictions in 2024
• 3.2 Anticipated Discounts and Negotiations
• 3.3 Used RV Price Predictions in 2024
• 3.4 2024 Manufacturing Adjustments
• 4.1 Shop for New Older Year RVs
• 4.2 Don’t Be Afraid to Negotiate
• 4.3 Pay Attention to Price vs Features
• 4.4 Shop Used RVs

Will RV Prices Go Down in 2024?

The latest 2024 RV sales forecasts from industry associations are optimistic. In fact, the RV Industry Association (RVIA) projects a significant increase in wholesale RV shipments.

They predict that annual RV shipments will range 363,700 to 375,700 units, which would mark more than a 20% increase from the expected totals of 2023, showing a potential resurgence in the industry​ ​​ ​.

However, the trend of RV prices will be shaped not only by shipment numbers but also by broader economic factors such as interest rates, inflation and consumer purchasing power. In fact, many experts think the industry forecasts are overly optimistic given the current market conditions.

With the rise of economic inflation and lending rates, as well as fluctuating diesel prices, we agree with many experts that RV prices will decline in 2024 . However, there may be some exceptions, such as more fuel-efficient models like Class-B camper vans​ ​​ ​.

2023 RV Market Trends Recap

A Year of Decline

2023 has been a challenging year for the RV industry. Shipments plummeted by 42.8% compared to the previous year, a decline reminiscent of the 2007-2009 financial crisis​ ​. This decrease can be attributed to various factors, including the end of the pandemic RV boom, rising interest rates and shifts in consumer spending habits.

The decline was consistent across different RV types, with both towable and motorized RVs experiencing a nearly identical drop of around 16% in sales. This uniform trend indicates a broader market shift rather than segment-specific issues​ ​.

Interest rates and consumer spending habits, reshaped by the pandemic, played a significant role in this downturn. The shift in consumer behavior, coupled with economic pressures, led to reduced demand and a consequent drop in prices.

The Used RV Market: A Mixed Bag

The used RV market, meanwhile, has shown fluctuating trends. According to a fall 2023 analysis by Bish’s RV , the value of towable RVs in the used market appeared to be rising, while motorized RV prices were up and down throughout the year.

These trends seem to correlate with the introduction of lower-priced options in the new RV market, affecting the valuation of used RVs​ ​.

Predictions for RV Market Trends in 2024

New RV Price Predictions in 2024

The pricing of new RVs in 2024 is likely to be influenced by a combination of economic factors and consumer demand. Given the projected increase in RV shipments, ranging from 363,700 to 375,700 units, there is an indication of a recovering market​ ​​ ​.

However, the impact of economic inflation, interest rates and fuel prices will play a crucial role in determining the final pricing. In fact, Greg Fore, former chairman of the RVIA, predicts a stagnant RV market in 2024.

The macroeconomic headwinds continue to blow, making RV market growth difficult in the short term. John Fore

If his predictions are correct and demand for new RVs does not increase, RV prices will decline in 2024.

Anticipated Discounts and Negotiations

In a typical RV market, discounts of 20% to 30% off the MSRP have been common, but recent years have seen a shift. During the pandemic, high demand led to RVs selling closer to the MSRP.

As the market stabilized, discounts returned in 2023, albeit in the range of 10% to 20%, with fewer instances of the higher 30%+ markdowns seen in pre-pandemic times​ ​​ ​.

However, as dealership lots return to healthier inventories, the trend in 2024 will likely lean towards more generous discounts​ ​. In fact, on a recent shopping trip, I saw several new RVs listed around 30% off the MSRP.

Used RV Price Predictions in 2024

The used RV market in 2024 will likely continue to offer value, especially considering the depreciation factor of new RVs. As new RV prices stabilize and potentially decrease, the value of used RVs might also adjust accordingly.

The trend observed in 2023, with the value of towable RVs in the used market rising and motorized RVs experiencing alternating value shifts, is indicative of a market that responds dynamically to new RV pricing trends​ ​.

2024 Manufacturing Adjustments

Decontenting.

One RV market trend that is clear with the release of 2024 models is decontenting. Decontenting is simply removing features from RVs. Responding to consumer price sensitivity, many manufacturers have introduced more affordable RV options that come equipped with less bells and whistles.

For example, Winnebago has launched the Access travel trailer series and Grand Design launched the 100 Series, a more affordable version of their popular Reflection fifth wheels. This shift towards cost-effective models could lead to a broader range of prices in the market, making RVs accessible to a wider audience.

Innovation and Technology

As the industry moves towards 2024, manufacturers are likely to continue focusing on innovative designs, particularly in response to the growing interest in electric RVs, lightweight and compact models and sustainable RVing practices​ ​. These advancements are not only in response to consumer demand but also align with global trends towards sustainability and eco-friendliness.

How to Get the Best Deal on RVs in 2024

Shop for New Older Year RVs

As 2024 RVs start filling dealership lots, the dealers will be eager to sell previous model year RVs that have been sitting for a significant amount of time. If there are any new 2022 model-year RVs left on the lot, the dealer will likely be willing to make you a sweet deal to get rid of this two-year old inventory.

As the year progresses, 2023 units will also be available at a bigger bargain. Ask your local dealer when they expect to receive new inventory of your desired brand, and try to buy the previous year model shortly before the new inventory is expected to arrive.

Don’t Be Afraid to Negotiate

When it comes to buying a new RV, don’t be afraid to negotiate. While dealers may have been unwilling to negotiate during the RV boom, the bubble has burst and there are now deals to be had.

While out shopping for travel trailers recently, I saw several new 2024 RVs with a list price at least 25% off the MSRP. This indicates that dealers are ready to make deals in order to get their inventory sold.

Shop around at multiple dealerships, and always ask for a discount off the listed price. If the dealer is unwilling to lower the price, check if there are other upgrades or service packages that could be included to sweeten the deal.

Pay Attention to Price vs Features

With the RV decontenting trend that we discussed earlier, it is important for buyers to pay attention to the features included in a new RV. Affordable RV models may have lower-quality interior finishes or lack convenience features, such as auto leveling.

Many campers are fine with a RV that lacks nice-to-have features but is available at an affordable price. Buying one of these affordable RVs isn’t necessarily a bad thing, shoppers just need to be informed about what they are really buying.

Shop Used RVs

While the used RV market has been somewhat volatile in the last few years, used RVs still generally provide the best deal. RVs depreciate quickly . In fact, most RV values will depreciate around 20% after just one year of ownership. If you are on a tight budget, you should consider buying a used RV which will get you more rig for your money.

However, buyers should be extra careful when buying used RVs. A used RV is worth significantly less than its book value if it has severe water damage or other major issues. Find a certified RV inspector at the  NRVIA’s website and have the RV thoroughly checked before buying.

In summary, in 2024 new RV prices are likely to be more generously discounted compared to the pandemic era. However, the used RV market continues to offer value, especially considering the depreciation of new RVs.

Manufacturing trends are leaning towards more affordable, innovative and eco-friendly models. For buyers, the best strategies include considering older model-year RVs for new purchases, negotiating effectively and exploring the used RV market with due diligence.

Overall, the RV market in 2024 presents opportunities for both new and seasoned RV enthusiasts to find deals that align with their budget and lifestyle preferences.

Happy Camping!

Christina Pate is a seasoned full-time RVer who, along with her husband Justin, has journeyed across the US, Canada, and Mexico. Drawing from her extensive travels, RV repairs and RV renovations, she founded Travels with Ted to guide and inspire fellow RV enthusiasts. Christina is also the co-author of The Owner’s Guide to RV Maintenance and the creator of My RV Log Book .

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Why We Expect Inflation to Fall in 2024

Wondering when inflation will go down? We’re optimistic about what’s ahead.

For now, it looks like inflation will return to normal without a recession.

As we had expected, inflation fell sharply in 2023 after reaching its highest level in over 40 years in 2022. In 2024, we project inflation to return to normal levels, in line with the Federal Reserve’s 2% target.

In our latest Economic Outlook, we detail that the drop in inflation has been driven principally by the unwinding of price spikes owing to supply chain resolutions and by the slowing pace of economic growth because of the Fed’s tightening.

We expect inflation to average 1.9% from 2024 to 2028—falling just under the Fed’s 2.0% inflation target.

If inflation proves stickier than expected, the Fed stands ready to do whatever’s necessary—including inducing a recession—to bring inflation down to 2%. But our base case is a soft landing, with inflation returning to normal despite only a modest and temporary deceleration in gross domestic product growth.

PCE Inflation (%)

Headline inflation has plunged since mid-2022.

The Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index, or PCE Index, which is our (and the Fed’s) preferred inflation measure, fell from a peak of 7.1% year-over-year growth in June 2022 to just 2.4% as of February 2024.

Consumer Price Index inflation, which has some methodological differences with PCE, has fallen even more dramatically year over year. It had peaked at a higher rate (8.9%) owing to a higher weighting in energy. CPI inflation was 3.2% year over year in February 2024.

Core inflation has also been on a gradual downtrend since early 2022, though its decline is less impressive compared with headline inflation. Because core inflation strips out the impact of volatile food and energy prices, economists often use it as a cleaner measure of inflation’s underlying trend. Core PCE inflation was 2.8% year over year in February 2024, slightly higher than the overall inflation rate. Core CPI inflation is running a bit higher at 3.8% year over year, owing to a higher weighting in housing.

Inflation Measures, % Growth Year Over Year

Categories that have played an outsize role in excess inflation.

The postpandemic jump in inflation began with only a handful of spending categories.

Excess inflation (the difference between cumulative inflation versus its prepandemic average) was only 5.7 percentage points in the first quarter of 2022. At that time, durable goods, energy, and food at home accounted for nearly 70% of that excess inflation, despite being only 20% of total consumption.

Since then, inflation has spread to several other categories. These other categories, which include housing, vehicles, and more, now account for about half of excess inflation. Still, the partial deflation in these categories has helped slow the overall inflation rate substantially. And, we see the inflation in these categories as more of a one-time catch-up effect.

PCE Excess Inflation by Category

Where We Expect Inflation to Fall the Most Over 2024-28

Given the role of industry-specific supply shocks in driving historically high inflation, we take a bottom-up approach to forecasting inflation for the next five years. That is, we start by examining the underlying components and work toward macro trends.

Here’s where we expect the greatest drop in inflation (and sometimes outright deflation) between 2024 and 2028:

• Durables: Major supply constraints are lifting. In particular, the semiconductor market is likely to flip from shortage to glut over the next few years. The normalization of spending patterns (shifting back to services) is also easing pricing pressure on goods. We expect about one third of the excess inflation in durables to unwind by 2027.
• Food and energy: We expect prices to subside as the industry adjusts to disruption from factors such as the Ukraine war, and one-off events such as the outbreak of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza in 2022, which especially elevated egg and poultry prices.
• Housing: Housing inflation has accelerated markedly over the past year, but we don’t expect this to last. Assuming market rent growth doesn’t reaccelerate, it’s inevitable that housing inflation will fall back to normal.

In all other components of the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index, we expect moderate wage growth and the absence of any long-lasting supply disruptions to keep inflation at restrained levels. And the economy growing well below potential through 2024 will cause widespread deflationary pressure.

PCE Inflation Forecast: Key Components (% Growth)

Supply Chain Healing Will Bring Goods Prices Down

Numerous production and logistical disruptions have contributed to inflation in durables and other parts of the economy. But supply chains are healing as demand normalizes and capacity catches up: The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Global Supply Chain Pressure Index is showing supply chain conditions about in line with prepandemic levels.

Global Supply Chain Pressure Index (New York Fed)

There’s more help on the way. One indicator on the logistics side is that there are enough container ships set to be delivered over the next several years to expand the current fleet by 30%. And manufacturing capacity is expanding in the United States and other major economies, such as China.

Other key takeaways about supply chains include:

• Supply chain improvement won’t be fully reflected in lower prices right away , just as core goods prices didn’t peak until about a year after supply chain paralysis set in.
• Producer prices for transport have fallen compared with a year ago, as have import prices.
• Elevated retailers’ gross margins are still propping up high consumer prices.

Housing Market Inflation in 2024 and Beyond

Because price indexes capture the cost of living, and most people don’t sign a new lease or buy a new house every year, it takes time for housing prices in price indexes to capture changing market conditions. For this reason, CPI inflation is still running fairly hot owing to the accumulated runup in market rents since 2021.

That said, here’s where the housing market currently stands:

• Market rents are now decelerating sharply in response to falling housing demand and expanding apartment supply. Rent growth fell to only about 1.7% year over year as of December 2023, from its peak of 15.7% in February 2023. This is causing CPI shelter to finally decelerate, which we expect to persist over the next year until housing inflation returns to normal.
• We expect home prices to fall as weak home demand will continue to weigh on housing prices. We expect home prices to remain about flat in nominal terms over the next several years and thus converge much of the way back to the prepandemic trend. This will return the CPI shelter index to normal.
• Lower housing prices will also aid in returning housing affordability to more reasonable levels. From a cost perspective, lower home prices should become more palatable for builders as easing supply constraints reduce the cost of construction inputs.

A Soft Landing Is Our Base Case for Inflation in 2024

Our base case is that inflation will return to normal in 2024, even as real GDP growth remains positive in year-over-year terms—a “soft landing.”

Over the past year, inflation has fallen around 300 basis points even as real GDP growth has accelerated. That performance has defied the predictions of those in the stagflation camp who thought that a deep economic slump would be needed to root out entrenched inflation. Instead, the inflation-GDP trade-off has been very kind, thanks to the loosening of supply constraints, as we had long anticipated.

Still, we’ve been surprised by the resiliency of economic growth in the face of aggressive rate hikes from the Fed. This means the “overheating” scenario has increased in probability, where the economy grows at a rollicking pace and inflation remains in the 3%-4% range.

We still think that the Fed’s rate hikes executed thus far will eventually slow GDP growth sufficiently and that inflation will drop to 2% (while avoiding an outright recession). The effects of these rate hikes are still accumulating throughout the economy as borrowers roll over to higher interest rates and exhaust their financial cushions.

This article was compiled by Emelia Fredlick and Yuyang Zhang.

The author or authors do not own shares in any securities mentioned in this article. Find out about Morningstar’s editorial policies .

More in Economy

With Sticky March PCE Inflation, When Will the Fed Hit Its 2% Target?

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March US CPI Report Shows Inflation at a 3.5% Annual Rate, Higher Than Expected

About the author, preston caldwell.

Preston Caldwell is senior U.S. economist for Morningstar Research Services LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Morningstar, Inc. He leads the research team's views on U.S. macroeconomic issues, including GDP growth, inflation, interest rates, and monetary policy.

Previously, he served as a member of the energy sector team, covering oilfield services stocks and helping to craft Morningstar's long-term oil price forecasts.

Caldwell holds a bachelor's degree in economics from the University of Arkansas and earned his Master of Business Administration from Rice University.

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• How to buy tickets
• How much are New Edition's tickets?

Need travel arrangements?

• Who is opening for New Edition's tour?

Will there be international tour dates?

How to buy new edition tickets: dates and prices compared for 2024 concert tour.

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New Edition's Las Vegas residency is still going strong through 2024, though only a few tour dates remain. Luckily, the iconic music group has added additional tour dates and there are a few different ways to buy New Edition tickets.

New Edition began their residency at the Encore Theater in Las Vegas in February, with their stay ultimately being extended through November. After their original six shows, New Edition added two more legs for this year for a total of 10 more concert dates. Performing on their 2024 concert tour are group members Bobby Brown, Ralph Tresvant, Johnny Gill, Ricky Bell, Michael Bivins, and Ronnie DeVoe, who sing their classic hits like "Candy Girl," "Cool It Now," and "If It Isn't Love."

If you're still looking for how to buy tickets to New Edition's concerts, we've got you covered. Here's our breakdown of the R&B group's tour schedule, purchasing details, and ticket prices. You can also browse tickets and show specifics on StubHub and Vivid Seats at your leisure.

New Edition 2024 tour schedule

All six members of New Edition are returning for the remainder of the group's Las Vegas residency, which kicks off on July 3. It features seven shows from July 3 to July 13 in Las Vegas, with the third leg picking back up for three additional concert dates in October and November.

The group is also appearing at the Cincinnati Music Festival in July.

All concert times are listed in local time zones.

How to buy tickets for New Edition's 2024 concert tour

You can buy original tickets for New Edition's 2024 Las Vegas residency concert dates and music festival appearance on Ticketmaster. However, since the residency extension shows went on sale in March 2024, the quantity of remaining original tickets is limited.

Tickets can also be purchased from verified resale vendors like StubHub and Vivid Seats . You may have better luck with the variety of seating options and availability on resale sites compared to the original tickets still left.

It's also important to note that New Edition's shows at the Encore Theater in Las Vegas only permit concertgoers ages 18 and up — so be sure to bring your ID to get into the group's residency performances.

How much are New Edition's tickets?

Given the high demand for the group's remaining Las Vegas residency shows, tickets to see New Edition in 2024 are relatively expensive. Furthermore, ticket prices vary depending on each show's concert date and demand. Resale ticket prices are comparable to or cheaper than original ticket costs.

The cheapest original ticket prices on Ticketmaster begin at $175 for New Edition's Las Vegas shows on October 30 and November 1. The least expensive seats are generally in the left or right mezzanine. However, most other dates with remaining original tickets are a bit more costly, with the cheapest seats coming in at over $200.

On the other hand, original one-day Saturday tickets for New Edition's Cincinnati Music Festival performance start at only $65. This ticket also lets you see artists like Kem, Stokley, En Vogue, and Coco Jones. Check out the full line-up here .

The least expensive resale tickets available to New Edition's Las Vegas residency on StubHub start at $165 for the group's July 5 performance. Vivid Seats offers similar prices for resale tickets, as the cheapest available Las Vegas show passes begin at $165. However, both sites' base fares are slightly more expensive than the $65 original tickets for the Cincinnati Music Festival, as StubHub's begin at $72 while Vivid Seats' start at $73.

• Accommodation:  Save 15%+ at Booking.com  |  Expedia  |  Airbnb
• Flights & hotel:  Booking.com  |  Expedia
• Flights:  Booking.com  |  Expedia
• Parking:  Spot Hero  |  The Parking Spot

Who is opening for New Edition's tour?

New Edition does not have any opening acts for their tour. Once the showtime begins in Las Vegas, the R&B group will be the ones to come onstage.

Currently, New Edition has not announced any upcoming international tour dates for their 2024 concert series.

Watch: Is another Fyre Festival really in the works?

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Simple Flying

North american international air fares projected to fall in 2024: here are the regions getting cheaper.

Most international flights have slightly decreased in price.

• North America is expected to see a decrease in international ticket prices, particularly in the economy class, due to competition and the rise of low-cost carriers.
• Flights within continents are on the rise, with Asia seeing the highest increase at +3.0%, while South America is forecasted to have a significant decrease in business class fares.
• Flights from Europe to South America are expected to drop by -10.4%, possibly due to the high inflation environment in South America, making tickets cheaper for Europeans.

One of the most important metrics for economists within the aviation industry to observe is the global price index for flights. Taking a look at the average fare and how it has changed over the previous year can convey a solid amount of information about the state of the market.

However, finding reliable data for this question can be challenging, as ticket prices vary, and finding an unbiased set of data can be tricky. Nonetheless, American Express Global Business Travel (Amex), one of the leaders in this space, has recently released new global price forecasts that can demonstrate the market's direction and give a unique picture of how ticket prices might change in the next year.

An overview of the forecasts

Amex GBT is a multinational corporate travel manager, with over 18,000 employees based out of offices across the globe. The company, which is led by Paul Abbott, handles a massive portion of the globe's corporate travel booking, and as a result, has an in-depth understanding of the market's dynamics.

When assembling their forecasts, Amex GBT dives into both international and domestic markets, and segments the data by business and economy-class offerings, with first-class fares being included in the business class category. Individually, the airline has predicted the percentage change in ticket prices for all six major regional air markets, including North America, South America, Europe, Asia, the Middle East, and Australia.

The numbers themselves

The most important statistics for this piece come for North America, where the majority of international ticket prices are expected to fall. This data can best be realized through the table below, which shows Amex GBT's expected percentage change in ticket prices between North America and other markets in both business and economy class:

Get all the latest aviation news on Simple Flying!

Given the incredible rise in inflation in most economies, this number is rather impressive and demonstrates the extent to which competition and network expansion have taken place within the industry. Furthermore, the continued rise of low-cost long-haul carriers has continued to put pressure on legacy airlines in these markets and continues to push numbers down.

Some other fascinating numbers

Across the board, flights within continents (including both domestic flights and connections between two cities within the same continent) are steadily on the rise. In Asia, this number sits at +3.0%; in Europe, it is only +1.0%; and in the United States, the number is even lower at just +0.3%.

But there is one market where this number is lower. In South America, the average business class fare is forecast to decrease by -3.8%. With two major legacy conglomerates on the continent (Avianca's ABRA Group and LATAM), networks are efficient, business travel is smoother than ever, and business travel continues to expand rapidly . With such large networks, carriers can streamline costs and ultimately cut fares.

Flights from Europe to South America are also expected to drop significantly. The average economy class fare between the two continents is set to drop by -10.4%, which could be a demonstration of the high-inflation environment in South America, making tickets effectively far cheaper for Europeans to buy.

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Bets on Rate Cuts This Year Are Fading Away

Stubborn inflation has led traders to forecast far fewer rate cuts by the Federal Reserve than just a few months ago.

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By Jeanna Smialek

At the start of 2024, investors expected the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates substantially this year as inflation cooled. But price increases have been surprisingly stubborn, and that is forcing a rethink on Wall Street.

Investors and economists are questioning when and how much Fed policymakers will manage to cut rates — and some are increasingly dubious that Fed officials will manage to lower them at all this year.

Inflation was coming down steadily in 2023, but that progress has stalled out in 2024. The Fed’s preferred inflation index climbed 2.8 percent in March from a year earlier, after stripping out volatile food and fuel costs, data on Friday showed . While that is down substantially from a 2022 peak, it is still well above the central bank’s 2 percent goal.

Inflation’s stickiness has prompted Fed officials to signal that it may take longer to reduce interest rates than they had previously expected. Policymakers raised interest rates to 5.33 percent between March 2022 and last summer, and have held them there since. Investors who went into the year expecting a first rate cut by March have pushed back those expectations to September or later.

Some analysts are even beginning to question whether the Fed’s next move might be to raise rates, which would be a huge reversal after months in which Wall Street overwhelmingly expected the Fed’s next step to be a cut.

But most economists think that it would take a lot for the Fed to switch gears that drastically.

“It’s certainly a possible outcome, but it would require an outright acceleration in the inflation rate,” said Matthew Luzzetti, chief U.S. economist at Deutsche Bank.

Jeanna Smialek covers the Federal Reserve and the economy for The Times from Washington. More about Jeanna Smialek

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Stock market today: nasdaq sinks 2% as stocks plummet to end worst month of 2024.

US stocks closed in a sea of red on Tuesday to close Wall Street's worst month of 2024, as new labor data came in hotter than expected while investors await the Federal Reserve's upcoming interest rate decision and digest strong earnings from Amazon ( AMZN ).

The S&P 500 ( ^GSPC ) and tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite ( ^IXIC ) each nosedived to end the trading day, falling roughly 1.6% and 2%, respectively. The Dow Jones Industrial Average ( ^DJI ) fell about 1.5% while the yield on the 10-year Treasury (^ TNX ) jumped about 7 basis points to trade near 4.69%.

According to new data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics early Tuesday, the employment cost index, which measures compensation and benefits, increased 1.2% from December to March — the highest increase in a year — after rising 0.9% at the end of 2023.

Wages and salaries increased by 1.1% over that same three-month period, while benefit costs also increased by 1.1%. The data adds to ongoing concerns that persistently high wages are keeping inflation levels elevated.

Investors are bracing for policymakers to hold interest rates at historically elevated levels at the Fed's two-day meeting, which began Tuesday.

Amazon's results after the bell showed a beat on both the top and bottom lines as investors cheered a strong showing from its cloud computing segment. Shares popped as much as 5% in after hours trading.

A tale of two earnings: Amazon, Starbucks

It was a tale of two earnings stories on Tuesday as results from Amazon ( AMZN ) and Starbucks ( SBUX ) highlighted the after-hours calendar for investors.

Amazon shares jumped as much as 5% in after hours trading after the tech giant topped Wall Street estimates on both the top and bottom lines and showed strong results from its cloud computing segment. Sales of Amazon Web Services (AWS) jumped 17% year over year. Yahoo Finance's Hamza Shaban breaks down the results here.

Starbucks shares sank about 10% on Tuesday after the coffee giant missed expectations across the board with revenue, earnings, and same store sales growth falling short of estimates. Revenue fell 13% compared to the prior year period while same-store sales growth was negative at -4% versus the 1.46% growth Wall Street expected. Yahoo Finance's Brooke DiPalma has more on the disappointing report here.

Stocks close in sea of red

US stocks closed significantly lower on Tuesday with the Nasdaq leading the declines.

Both the S&P 500 ( ^GSPC ) and tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite ( ^IXIC ) nosedived to end the worst month of the year, falling roughly 1.6% and 2%, respectively.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average ( ^DJI ) fell about 1.5% while the yield on the 10-year Treasury (^ TNX ) jumped about 7 basis points to trade near 4.69%.

Wage cost increase 'yet another data point' to keep the Fed patient

New data out Tuesday from the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that compensation costs increased 1.2% in the first quarter, above the prior quarter's 1% increase and higher than the 0.9% economists had expected, per Bloomberg data.

Wells Fargo senior economist Sarah House reasoned that all else equal, Tuesday's pickup in wage costs isn't "the end of the world" for the Fed. But it is another drop in the bucket weighing on the market's hopes for interest rate cuts ahead of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's next update on monetary policy slated for Wednesday afternoon.

"It is yet another data point that suggests the inflation slowdown that began this time last year stalled out in the first quarter of 2024," House wrote in a research note following the release.

The slowdown in wage growth comes as inflation's decline has also stalled , leaving little wiggle room for the Fed to lean dovish on Wednesday, economists have argued.

"There's not much for the Fed to hang its hat on in terms of recent inflation data," Deutsche Bank US economist Brett Ryan told Yahoo Finance on Tuesday.

He added the Powell's message on Wednesday is likely to be that "elevated inflation would be met with holding rates steady."

Pot stocks move higher on move to reclassify marijuana in US

Pot stocks surged on Tuesday after the Associated Press reported the US Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA) will move to reclassify marijuana as a less dangerous drug.

To note, this would not legalize marijuana for recreational use but would recognize the medical uses of cannabis in addition to acknowledging that the odds of abusing marijuana are less compared to other dangerous drugs in the country, according to the report.

"Among all the potential changes to the regulatory landscape currently being considered, rescheduling was the most meaningful and needed to pass after the HHS recommendation this past August," Wedbush analysts Gerald Pascarelli and Antoine Legault wrote in reaction to the news.

"The move will benefit all operators who have been severely impacted by a constrained capital markets environment and the ability to raise incremental cash," the analysts continued. "While today's announcement does not legalize cannabis federally, [the move] is a great first step and it should provide momentum to an industry that has consistently been let down by lawmakers."

Tilray ( TLRY ), Canopy Growth ( CGC ), and Aurora Cannabis ( ACB ) shares jumped on the news, rising roughly 33%, 42%, and 30%, respectively.

GenAI to boost GDP, 'change world economy': Oxford Economics

Generative artificial intelligence "will change the world economy." At least that's what a new report from Oxford Economics predicated on Tuesday.

"Generative AI has the potential to substantially improve the medium-term growth outlook for the economy," wrote Innes McFee, chief global economist at Oxford Economics. "It arrives at a perfect moment — labor is going to be less supportive of growth as aging dynamics hit home and productivity is flagging."

Big Tech giants like Microsoft ( MSFT ), Alphabet ( GOOG , GOOGL ), and Amazon ( AMZN ) are heavily investing in artificial intelligence with investors closely eyeing the progress of AI developments.

Oxford said generative AI could automate tasks and lead to increased innovation, which could help boost GDP by between 1.8% and 4.0% by 2032 — depending on adoption speed.

"Although the economy wide-gains will arrive eventually, they won't be immediate," McFee warned. "Developments in human capital and the infrastructure around GenAI will be needed to unlock the full benefits. And in line with the historical experience of reaping the benefits from innovation, that's likely to take years."

Ahead of that timeline, it's possible the economy could see increased layoffs as demand over AI-related investments increases cost pressures.

Still, McFee said generative AI could serve as a disinflationary force for the global economy in the medium term, explaining that higher wage growth likely won't match higher productivity right away.

Paypal, Eli Lilly, 3M: Stocks trending in afternoon trading

Here are the stocks trending on Yahoo Finance in afternoon trading on Tuesday:

PayPal ( PYPL ): Shares popped as much as 4.1% after the company reported first quarter earnings that saw payment volume surge 14% compared to the prior-year period. Revenue beat analyst expectations in the quarter while adjusted earnings per share came up short.

Eli Lilly and Company ( LLY ): Shares of the pharmaceutical giant rose roughly 6% after the company raised its annual sales forecast by $2 billion, citing heightened demand for its GLP-1 weight-loss drugs Mounjaro and Zepbound.

3M Company ( MMM ): Shares jumped about 3% after the company reported a 21% year-over-year increase in quarterly profits as price hikes and cost cuts offset slowing sales. The company also said it would cut its dividend following the April 1 spinoff of its healthcare segment, Solventum Corp.

McDonald's ( MCD ): Shares of the fast food giant traded flat after the company posted a miss on both the top and bottom lines as same-store sales also came short of expectations. CEO Chris Kempczinski also noted a more cautious consumer, saying on the earnings call: "Consumers continue to be even more discriminating with every dollar that they spend."

Warner Bros. Discovery tanks as NBC looks to clinch NBA media rights

Shares of Warner Bros. Discovery ( WBD ) fell about 9% in afternoon trading on Tuesday — on track for their lowest close since March 2009.

The move to the downside comes as new reports swirl regarding the NBA's rights renewal negotiations. Warner Bros. Discovery's TNT network, along with Disney's ESPN ( DIS ), holds the current media rights for the league, although they expire at the end of the 2024-2025 season.

Warner Bros. Discovery was unable to strike a new agreement before the exclusive negotiation period expired last week. Disney has reportedly agreed to increase its payment of $1.5 billion a year to $2.6 billion in order to renew the deal.

According to the Wall Street Journal , Comcast's NBCUniversal ( CMCSA ) is nearing a deal to pay $2.5 billion a year to air a package of NBA games. That's more than double the $1.2 billion annual fee Warner Bros. Discovery currently shells out.

The package would reportedly include playoff and regular season games that would air on the NBC network, along with the company's flagship streaming service Peacock.

Disney has reportedly agreed to increase its payment of $1.5 billion a year to $2.6 billion in order to renew the deal. Amazon ( AMZN ) is also in talks for a streaming rights package through its Prime Video service.

Amazon earnings in focus

All eyes will be on Amazon earnings with the tech giant set to report quarterly results after the closing bell today. Yahoo Finance's Hamza Shaban tells us what to expect amid the wave of Big Tech results:

Amazon is expected to offer updates on the progress of its AI development, the state of its lucrative cloud business, and the growth of its advertising segment.

The report will arrive a week after the company's cloud rival and AI competitor Microsoft ( MSFT ) posted an impressive quarter, beating expectations on the strength of its cloud computing business . The market cheered even louder for Google parent Alphabet's ( GOOG , GOOGL ) results, which outperformed on the top and bottom lines and came with an announcement of a new dividend, the latest in a trend among tech giants.

Here’s what Wall Street is expecting for some of Amazon's most significant metrics in the company’s fiscal fourth quarter:

Revenue: $142.6 billion expected ($127.4 billion in Q1 2023)

Adjusted earnings per share: $0.82 expected ($0.31 in Q1 2023)

Online Stores: $54.8 billion expected ($51.1 billion in Q1 2023)

Amazon Web Services: $24.1 billion expected ($21.4 billion in Q1 2023)

Advertising: $11.8 billion expected ($9.5 billion in Q1 2023)

Read more here.

Consumer confidence hits lowest level since July 2022

Consumer confidence declined to its lowest level in more than a year and a half during April.

The latest survey from the Conference Board showed consumer confidence retreated to a reading of 97 in April, below economists' expectations for a reading of 104 and lower than March's reading of 103.1.

"Consumers became less positive about the current labor market situation, and more concerned about future business conditions, job availability, and income,” The Conference Board chief economist Dana Peterson said in the release.

Peterson added: "According to April’s write-in responses, elevated price levels, especially for food and gas, dominated [consumers'] concerns, with politics and global conflicts as distant runners-up."

Consumers' expectations for the next six months slipped as well, also hitting their lowest level since July 2022. The Conference Board reasoned this was driven by a more pessimistic outlook for "future business conditions, labor market conditions, and income expectations."

The decrease in consumer confidence comes as US economic data has been increasingly mixed. Several months of inflation data have shown price increases aren't slowing as fast as hoped. Meanwhile, economic growth in the first quarter came in slower than expected.

Wages increase by most in a year in first quarter, feed case for Fed to 'take its time'

A closely tracked wage growth metric hit its highest level in a year during the first quarter, fueling concerns that sticky inflation may be pervasive, forcing the Fed to hold interest rates steady for longer than initially hoped.

Capital Economics chief North America economist Paul Ashworth said Tuesday's data shows that wage growth is "sticky too," not just inflation data.

"The persistence of wage growth is another reason for the Fed to take its time on rate cuts," Ashworth wrote in a note following the release.

Markets appeared to adjust to that reality as well. The 10-year Treasury yield ( ^TNX ) added about six basis points to hit 4.67% immediately following the ECI release, while all futures tied to all three major averages turned lower.

"With [Federal Reserve chair Jerome] Powell indicating the Fed should allow restrictive policy further time to work and a clear majority of policymakers favoring two or fewer rate cuts in 2024, this report will push Fed officials to further assert their hawkish stance," EY chief economist Gregory Daco wrote in a note following the release.

Home prices rise at the fastest pace since November 2022

Home prices in February rose at the fastest clip since November 2022, according to national home price data released Tuesday.

Prices nationwide rose 6.4% over the same month last year, the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index showed .

"Following last year's decline, U.S. home prices are at or near all-time highs," Brian Luke, head of commodities, real & digital assets at S&P Dow Jones Indices, wrote in a press release.

"Our 10- and 20-City Composite indices are currently at all-time highs."

A gauge measuring price changes in 20 of the nation’s largest cities increased 7.3%, up from a 6.6% increase in the previous month. Data from Bloomberg showed that analysts had expected this reading to show prices rose by 6.7% over the prior year.

Prices rose 0.6% nationally compared to the prior month, the first monthly increase since last October. On a seasonally adjusted basis, prices rose 0.4% in February.

"Since the previous peak in prices in 2022, this marks the second time home prices have pushed higher in the face of economic uncertainty," Luke added.

"The first decline followed the start of the Federal Reserve’s hiking cycle. The second decline followed the peak in average mortgage rates last October. Enthusiasm for potential Fed cuts and lower mortgage rates appears to have supported buyer behavior, driving the 10-and 20- City Composites to new highs."

On a monthly basis, Seattle, San Diego, and San Francisco saw the largest jumps in home prices. Over the prior year, San Diego, Detroit, and Chicago saw the biggest price increases.

"The substantial shortage of existing homes for sale fueled a robust 0.4% [month-over-month] rise in house prices in February, consistent with our above-consensus call that house price growth will end 2024 at 5% [year-over-year]," wrote Thomas Ryan, property economist at Capital Economics, in a note to clients on Tuesday.

"Looking ahead, while still high mortgage rates will prevent a house price boom, we think the combination of tight supply and rising buyer demand will deliver a few more years of solid house price growth."

US stocks open lower

US stocks opened lower on Tuesday as investors eye the Federal Reserve's upcoming interest rate decision on Wednesday, with Amazon ( AMZN ) earnings on tap after the bell.

The S&P 500 ( ^GSPC ) and tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite ( ^IXIC ) each slipped roughly 0.3% and 0.4%, respectively. The Dow Jones Industrial Average ( ^DJI ) also fell about 0.4%.

Stocks are on track to post their worst month of 2024, snapping a five-month win streak.

Here's another surprise from restaurant earnings

You don't see this too often, but Restaurant Brands' ( QSR ) Burger King chain had a better quarter of sales than archrival McDonald's ( MCD ).

Burger King revealed this morning a 3.9% same-store sales increase in the first quarter, outpacing McDonald's 2.5% gain.

Restaurant Brands has been very aggressive in marketing for BK this year, especially with its new (and cheap) snack wraps. So maybe BK has won back market share among consumers searching for deals.

Full watch below on what Restaurant Brands is up to with executive chairman Patrick Doyle and CEO Josh Kobza.

Fast analysis: McDonald's joins the price hike commentary

McDonald's ( MCD ) highlighted "strategic" menu price increases in the US for the first quarter.

It's unclear from the company's supplementary release if the price hikes impacted store traffic.

But the company's US comparable sales only rose 2.5%, so it's safe to infer the company did see some pushback on the prices from diners.

More on the quarter from Yahoo Finance Senior Reporter Brooke DiPalma here .

Fast analysis: Molson Coors also calls out price hikes

Similar to Coca-Cola ( KO ) this morning, fellow beverage giant Molson Coors ( TAP ) had a strong quarter on the back of price hikes sticking around.

Molson Coors said pricing increased by 4.4% in the quarter, no small feat in the ultra-competitive beer industry.

Interestingly, the volume for Coors Light rose by a double-digit percentage.

You read that correctly... Coors Light.

Fast analysis: Coca-Cola earnings reveal one point on inflation

We saw it with PepsiCo ( PEP ) earnings last week, and we see it again with Coca-Cola ( KO ) results this morning: Big food players are still pushing through price increases on consumers (memo to the Fed).

Coca-Cola noted that "price/mix" in the first quarter grew a hearty 13%.

Keep an eye on Yahoo Finance Senior Reporter Brooke DiPalma on our platform today — she will be speaking with Coca-Cola CEO James Quincey for added intel on the results.

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The U.S. economy slowed down in the first three months of 2024, report shows

Scott Horsley

The U.S. economy grew more slowly than expected in the first three months of the year. But consumers are still spending money — especially on services such as travel and restaurant meals.

Copyright © 2024 NPR. All rights reserved. Visit our website terms of use and permissions pages at www.npr.org for further information.

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'Winner take most': Here's what Wall Street is expecting from Amazon's Q1 earnings report

• Amazon is set to report its earnings for the first quarter after the closing bell on Tuesday.
• Investors have their eye on the company's AI initiatives and profit metrics.
• The company could be a "top pick" in the eCommerce space, Goldman Sachs said.

Amazon will report earnings on Tuesday after the closing bell and Wall Street has its eye on a few key details heading into the call. 

The company has seen a strong performance so far in 2024, with shares up 20%. Investors are generally feeling bullish on mega-cap tech stocks, with Amazon among the companies at the forefront of the artificial intelligence arms race. 

The company is developing custom generative AI chips, which could be a huge catalyst for its stock in the coming years, Needham strategists said in a recent note.

"This is a unique strategic position, and since digital markets have 'winner take most' economics, we are optimistic that AMZN will be one of the 2-3 winners from GenAI," the note said.

Investors are also watching for strength in key areas of the company, including Amazon Web Services and advertising revenue. Those areas could be challenged as consumer spending slows. 

Here's what Wall Street expects to see from Amazon's upcoming earnings report:

Bank of America: Top stock drivers in play

BofA expects healthy growth from the online retailer over the last quarter. The bank pointed to Amazon CEO Andy Jassy's letter to shareholders, which suggested positive progress in retail margins, AWS, and ad revenue — all "top stock drivers" for the company, analysts said in a note. 

"We expect a 1Q beat, and while 2Q set up has some unusual q/q hurdles, we expect positive 1Q metrics and call commentary to be constructive & consistent with the recent Shareholder Letter ... Given expanding retail margins (robust ad growth with a likely 1Q Prime boost), and expected AWS acceleration, we think the stock is still set up for multiple expansion in 2024," analysts wrote last week.

BofA analysts reiterated their "Buy" rating and $204 price target for the stock, implying a 13% upside from its current levels.

Wells Fargo: Healthy trends for the first quarter

Amazon looks to be on a good trajectory, especially when considering that change to its fee structure for its Fulfillment by Amazon program could drive up to $1.2 billion in incremental operating income compared to the previous quarter, Wells Fargo analysts estimated.

Retail sales are expected to contribute $725 million in incremental operating income for the quarter, while Amazon Web Services is expected to contribute $350 million.

"Believe revenue recognized from enterprise cloud migrations still relatively tepid in 1Q but commitments in place for 2H acceleration. View '24 to be a year of cyclical recovery, while Enterprise AI likely more of a focus in '25/'26," the bank said in a note. 

Analysts raised their price target for Amazon stock to $217,  implying a 20% upside.

Goldman Sachs: Top eCommerce pick into first quarter

Goldman Sachs said it was "cautious" on eCommerce stocks, due to an array of headwinds building in the sector. But Amazon is its "top pick" for the first quarter, thanks to resilient retail demand and expected growth in AWS and ad revenue, analysts said in a note.

"Our industry work and the third-party data sources we surveyed point to online consumer spending remaining resilient in Q1'24. But we see a wide dispersion of results between companies," the analysts wrote. 

The firm maintained its "Buy" rating and $220 price target, implying a 22% upside from the stock's current levels.

Needham: Top 2-3 "winners" of the AI race

Amazon is expected to outperform across multiple profit metrics, Needham analysts predicted, adding that Amazon will be among the top winners of the AI race that's captivated Wall Street. 

"We believe that cost cutting, as well as Cloud and Advertising rev growth ... will result in overdelivery of FCF and ROICs, which should lead to a valuation multiple expansion," analysts added. 

However, the bank noted that Amazon's business still faces risks, including weak consumer demand and rising competition. 

The firm maintained its "buy" rating and $205 price target for Amazon stock, implying a 14% upside from current levels.

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Mexico Flights Are About to Get Cheaper in 2024 — Here's Why

"We may be awash in cheap Mexico flights soon.”

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Travelers heading to Mexico — whether they're to indulge in its vibrant street food culture or relax at an all-inclusive resort — may be in luck as flights to the destination are on track to get much cheaper in 2024.

According to travel experts at Going , the number of people who flew last month between the U.S. and Mexico was 33% higher than pre-pandemic. While demand has been steady over the past few years, flights to Mexico have remained limited.

“That surge in popularity has made finding cheap flights to Mexico tougher, at least on some routes and dates,” said Andrew Hickey, Senior Manager of Public Relations at Going. “But there’s good news: We may be awash in cheap Mexico flights soon.”

Just last month, the U.S. Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) restored Mexico’s safety rating back to the highest level after two years of collaboration between the civil aviation authorities. 

This means Mexico can begin introducing new routes to the U.S., and we’ve already seen announcements from airlines like Mexican low-cost carrier Viva Aerobus, based in Monterrey. In 2024, Viva Aerobus plans on launching new routes to Mexico from Austin , Denver , Miami , New York City , San Francisco , and Orlando . 

SkyTeam alliance partners Aeromexico and Delta Air Lines have announced 17 new flights to begin on January 1, 2024, including Mexico City’s secondary airport, Felipe Ángeles International Airport (NLU), which has recently allowed airlines to add capacity. 

Furthermore, the brand-new Felipe Carrillo Puerto International Airport (TQO) in Tulum is set to open by the end of the year. Both Delta and Spirit have announced flights slated to begin on March 28, 2024, attracting even more travelers to the popular leisure destination thanks to these new nonstop options.

“The cities that will see the cheapest flights to Mexico have one thing in common: there will be multiple carriers flying to the same destination,” said Katy Nastro, Spokesperson for Going. “The number one driver for cheap flights is competition, so as more routes get added by more carriers, we will likely start to see which cities come out on top for cheaper flights to Mexico.”