travel outlook thursday

Holiday travel forecast: What to know before hitting the roads or the skies

Airlines are predicting packed planes this holiday season.

Americans are gearing up to hit the roads and the skies for the holidays -- and airlines are bracing for a packed travel season.

Here's what you need to know before hitting the road or heading to the airport:

Best, worst days to drive

Nearly 102 million Americans -- 90.4% of travelers -- will drive to their holiday destinations, according to AAA.

The worst days to be on the road are Dec. 23, Dec. 27, Dec. 28 and Jan. 2, according to transportation analytics company INRIX.

But if those are your planned travel days, the best times for motorists are 2 p.m. or earlier and after 8 p.m. The best times on Jan. 2 are before 3 p.m. or after 8 p.m., INRIX said.

The best days to drive are Christmas Day, New Year's Eve and New Year's Day, according to INRIX.

Most expensive and least expensive days to fly

Based on average ticket prices, the most expensive day to leave town for Christmas is Thursday, Dec. 22, followed by Saturday, Dec. 17, and Friday, Dec. 23, according to Expedia.

The cheapest day to fly before Christmas is Dec. 19.

When planning your return trip, avoid flying back on Mon. Dec. 26. Instead, book for Dec. 27 or Dec. 28, according to Expedia.

Looking for the ultimate budget-friendly day? Book a flight for New Year's Eve, according to Expedia, when ticket prices are more than $200 cheaper than average for the holiday period (Dec. 17 to Jan. 1).

Jan. 2 will be United's busiest day

United is planning for more than 8.3 million travelers over the holidays -- about 1.9 million more than last year.

But thanks to remote work, United said the holiday travel period is getting longer and demand is less concentrated on peak days.

Jan. 2 will likely be United's busiest day, when more than 480,000 travelers are expected. The airline said it anticipates setting a new post-pandemic travel record.

Chicago O’Hare will be United's busiest hub, followed by Denver, Newark and Houston, according to the airline.

Dec. 22, Dec. 23 and Dec. 27 peak days for Delta

Delta said it expects about 9 million customers from Dec. 16 to Jan. 3 -- just shy of its 2019 numbers, when the airline had about 9.3 million customers.

Delta’s largest hub, Atlanta, will have more than 800 daily flights on average.

Delta forecasts its peak travel days to be Thursday, Dec. 22, Friday, Dec. 23, and Tuesday, Dec. 27.

Dec. 22 is American's biggest day

American Airlines predicts to see more than 10 million passengers from Dec. 16 to Jan. 2.

American said its busiest day is Dec. 22 with 5,520 departures, followed by Dec. 15 with 5,514 departures.

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High-impact storm to wreak havoc on holiday week travel

A massive storm system will affect most of the country this week leading up to Christmas Eve, with the most significant impacts to major travel hubs from the Midwest to the Northeast expected Thursday and Friday.

The storm will begin to organize on Wednesday, bringing snow and wind to the Rockies and northern Plains.

On Thursday, heavy snow with strong winds will move into the Midwest, Great Lakes and central Plains. At the same time, the rain will spread across the Southeast, Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. Blizzard conditions are likely with the combo of heavy snow and wind gusts in excess of 50 mph possible.

According to the forecast on Monday morning, Friday is set to be the highest impact day, given snow will still be falling hard across parts of the Midwest and Great Lakes as winds roar across these regions.

On Friday, the winds are forecast to be the strongest not just across the Midwest and Great Lakes but also across the Northeast and New England. Even the Southeast will experience strong winds. Blizzard conditions will be ongoing for areas still experiencing the snow.

While too early to predict exact snow totals across the Midwest, Great Lakes and Ohio Valley, there is a likelihood of a foot or more in several spots.

As snow is falling across the Midwest and Great Lakes, the I-95 corridor will be getting lashed with torrential rain and strong winds. While the dominant precipitation type from the Mid-Atlantic to the Northeast is expected to be mostly rain, it could end as a burst of snow on Friday as the storm exits and arctic air rushes in.

All of the major airport hubs will be affected

Chicago can expect snow and powerful winds beginning Wednesday night and lasting through Friday night.

Atlanta, while on the lighter rain side of the storm, will still get strong winds that could cause air delays for flights at Hartsfield–Jackson Atlanta International Airport, which consistently ranks as the world's busiest.

Washington's heavy rain on Thursday and the rain and wind combination on Friday will cause major issues. Despite the precipitation ending late Friday, strong winds lingering in the first half of Saturday could continue to spark delays until the winds subside.

New York City area airports will also be in for a long stretch of delays beginning with the rain on Thursday, and the number of delays and likely cancellations are expected to get worse on Friday due to high winds accompanying the rain.

Boston will hold onto the precipitation the longest into the holiday weekend, with the rain beginning Thursday and not ending until early Saturday. High winds will also lead to delays and cancellations.

Whether the hubs are experiencing rain or snow, all will experience strong winds that will compound delays and lead to all-around uncomfortable flights due to turbulence.

Travel on the roads will be equally hazardous. Whether blizzard conditions producing whiteout visibilities across the Midwest or heavy rain causing blinding spray on the windshields, Thursday and Friday won't be great days to be driving or flying.

In addition to the large storm this week, an arctic outbreak that gets started Monday across the northern Plains will affect everyone east of the Rockies by Christmas weekend.

Temperatures this week will be 30-40 degrees below average, resulting in bone-chilling temperatures and these headlines to watch out for:

• Wind chills as cold as 60 below zero across the Rockies and northern Plains.
• Many locations in the northern Plains and Upper Midwest will experience their first sub-zero high temperatures.
• A few record lows will be possible, including for Denver, which is forecast to hit 16 below zero on Friday
• Of particular concern are below-freezing temperatures headed for Texas, which could arrive Thursday night and last into Saturday. This will spark energy and pipe-freeze concerns late in the week for areas as far south as Houston. Wind chill warnings are likely all the way to the Gulf Coast.
• Once the arctic air spills south and east by the end of the week and into the weekend, it could result in the coldest Christmas in years for many.
• The cold air will rush in so fast it could cause a flash freeze. New York City, for example, will go from a high on Friday around 56 to a low Saturday morning of 19 — a 30-degree temperature drop in less than 12 hours.

Not even Florida will escape the cold weather. Low temperatures this weekend will be 20s across northern Florida, 30s in central Florida and 40s for South Florida.

Kathryn Prociv is a senior meteorologist and producer for NBC News. 

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• winter storm

Holiday travel weather forecast: As winter storm bears down, some scramble to change plans

Chicago weather forecast shows significant amount of snow possible

CHICAGO (WLS) -- The coming storm is expected to create dangerous conditions on the roads, and havoc for airline travelers.

Many were already adjusting their flight plans Tuesday ahead of the holidays.

That storm is expected to bear down on Chicago right before Christmas.

SEE MORE: What can I do if my flight is canceled, delayed? How to prepare for likely 2022 holiday travel mess

So those who are choosing to fly are hoping they don't get stranded or stuck.

"I am so much relieved. I don't miss a Christmas. I can be home before the storm hits," said Dureti Gelgelu, who was heading to Oregon.

Some travelers landing at O'Hare Monday were happy to make it home before the storm.

Others visiting said they wasted no time re-booking their flights.

See storm timing, totals: Significant winter storm could bring more than a foot of snow by Christmas

Kelly Derr is in the area on a work trip, and was originally supposed to fly back home to Tennessee Thursday afternoon.

She re-booked her return flight before she even got off the plane.

"I don't want to be stranded here in Chicago when I've got six people coming into my house for the holidays," she said.

The Kotso family from the Rockford area planned a last minute trip to Mexico.

"It could be worse, right? We could be stranded down there or stranded here. I think I'd rather be down somewhere warm." Steven Kotso said.

Airlines and transit agencies are already warning people traveling by air, rail or road to be ready for the arrival of treacherous winter conditions.

RELATED: Airlines issue travel waivers ahead of massive 'bomb cyclone' of wintry weather

Most airlines currently have weather waivers in place.

That means you can change your flights for free, if you have flexible travel plans.

So far, there have not been any major cancellations.

The airlines predict the busiest travel day at O'Hare will be Thursday, as crowds return to pre-pandemic numbers.

The Chicago Department of Aviation said it's prepared for the storm.

"We have 500 staff members who are ready to work 24/7 and 350 pieces of snow removing equipment, lots of salt and lots of de-icer for the roadways," said Karen Pride, with the Chicago Department of Aviation.

Some travelers even asked Santa to use his magic to keep the planes on schedule Tuesday.

Ariana Rafaty is flying to Aruba with lots of family. They're feeling fortunate to miss all the snow.

"We kind of scheduled this in advance. We lucked out since we're not gonna be here while it's really bad, but I'm really grateful that were able to go somewhere," she said.

Travelers are urged to check with their airlines during the week to make sure their flights are not canceled.

As holiday travelers buzzed throughout the airport, there was a large emergency response at O'Hare's Terminal 1 about 6:30 a.m., as Chicago fire crews arrived to assist the Federal Aviation Administration in investigating a report of a suspicious package , CFD said.

Authorities cordoned off sections of Terminal 1 temporarily, but caution tape was removed by about 7 a.m.

"I saw a bunch of emergency lights, and I was like 'oh great we're gonna be late' but we're not late," traveler Jeff Andersen said.

CPD said officers responded to a threat, but the scene has been secured.

Travelers are allowed to move throughout the terminal again.

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Squeezing in one last summer trip over Labor Day weekend? Expect crowded airports and full flights

Travelers stand in line at the Tom Bradley International Terminal at LAX on Wednesday, Aug. 30, 2023, in Los Angeles. With Labor Day weekend just days away, airports and roadways are expected to be busy as tens of thousands of Southern Californians travel out of town. (Dean Musgrove/The Orange County Register via AP)

Flight attendants and travelers make their way through the Tom Bradley International Terminal at LAX on Wednesday, Aug. 30, 2023, in Los Angeles. With Labor Day weekend just days away, airports and roadways are expected to be busy as tens of thousands of Southern Californians travel out of town. (Dean Musgrove/The Orange County Register via AP)

Travelers maneuver in and out of the Tom Bradley International Terminal at LAX on Wednesday, Aug. 30, 2023, in Los Angeles. With Labor Day weekend just days away, airports and roadways are expected to be busy as tens of thousands of Southern Californians travel out of town. (Dean Musgrove/The Orange County Register via AP)

File - Travelers queue up at a United Airlines ticket counter in Denver International Airport Thursday, July 13, 2023, in Denver. The Federal Aviation Administration predicts Labor Day weekend will be the third busiest holiday travel weekend of the year so far. (AP Photo/David Zalubowski, File)

File - People pass through Salt Lake City International Airport on June 30, 2023, in Salt Lake City. The Federal Aviation Administration predicts Labor Day weekend will be the third busiest holiday travel weekend of the year so far. (AP Photo/Rick Bowmer, File)

Travelers make their way through the Tom Bradley International Terminal at LAX on Wednesday, Aug. 30, 2023, in Los Angeles. With Labor Day weekend just days away, airports and roadways are expected to be busy as tens of thousands of Southern Californians travel out of town. (Dean Musgrove/The Orange County Register via AP)

A couple waits for transportation at Terminal 5 at LAX on Wednesday, Aug. 30, 2023, in Los Angeles. With Labor Day weekend just days away, airports and roadways are expected to be busy as tens of thousands of Southern Californians travel out of town. (Dean Musgrove/The Orange County Register via AP)

Travelers walk through Terminal 3 at O’Hare International Airport in Chicago, Thursday, Aug. 31, 2023. The Federal Aviation Administration predicts that this will be the third busiest holiday weekend of the year so far, behind only the Juneteenth weekend, which included Father’s Day, and the Presidents Day break.(AP Photo/Nam Y. Huh)

Travelers make their way toward Terminal 3 at O’Hare International Airport in Chicago, Thursday, Aug. 31, 2023. The Federal Aviation Administration predicts that this will be the third busiest holiday weekend of the year so far, behind only the Juneteenth weekend, which included Father’s Day, and the Presidents Day break.(AP Photo/Nam Y. Huh)

Travelers line up for ticketing at O’Hare International Airport in Chicago, Thursday, Aug. 31, 2023. The Federal Aviation Administration predicts that this will be the third busiest holiday weekend of the year so far, behind only the Juneteenth weekend, which included Father’s Day, and the Presidents Day break.(AP Photo/Nam Y. Huh)

A traveler walks through Terminal 3 at O’Hare International Airport in Chicago, Thursday, Aug. 31, 2023. The Federal Aviation Administration predicts that this will be the third busiest holiday weekend of the year so far, behind only the Juneteenth weekend, which included Father’s Day, and the Presidents Day break.(AP Photo/Nam Y. Huh)

Travelers wait to go through security check point at O’Hare International Airport in Chicago, Thursday, Aug. 31, 2023. The Federal Aviation Administration predicts that this will be the third busiest holiday weekend of the year so far, behind only the Juneteenth weekend, which included Father’s Day, and the Presidents Day break.(AP Photo/Nam Y. Huh)

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DALLAS (AP) — By some measures, air travelers have enjoyed a less stressful summer than last year, but canceled flights remain elevated as airlines face their last big test of the prime vacation season: Labor Day weekend.

The Federal Aviation Administration predicts that this will be the third busiest holiday weekend of the year so far, behind only the Juneteenth weekend, which included Father’s Day, and the Presidents Day break.

Hurricane Idalia weakened and headed out to sea Thursday. While the storm left damage and power outages , its impact on travel eased. Airlines canceled several dozen flights in Florida and Georgia on Thursday but expected to operate at full strength Friday. Travelers can check conditions where they are going on the FAA website .

Thursday figured to be the busiest day in U.S. airspace, with 52,203 flights scheduled, followed by 49,111 flights on Friday, according to the FAA. After a lull on Saturday and Sunday, flights are scheduled to pick back up Monday and Tuesday. The numbers include airline, military and some private flights.

The Transportation Security Administration expects to screen more than 14 million passengers from Friday through Wednesday, up nearly 11% over the same weekend last year.

TSA Administrator David Pekoske warned that at times it could take more than 30 minutes to get through security and more than 10 minutes in PreCheck lanes, “so we encourage you to arrive early, pack your patience.” The agency recommended that travelers get to the airport two hours before their flight.

AAA said bookings for domestic travel — flights, hotels, rental cars, and cruises — are running 4% higher than Labor Day last year. The auto club and insurance seller said international bookings are up a staggering 44% now that COVID-19 restrictions have been lifted, with the top destinations being Vancouver, Rome, London, Dublin, and Paris.

Gasoline prices are similar to last year. The nationwide average was $3.83 a gallon on Wednesday, a penny less than a year ago, AAA reported .

On many planes this weekend, every seat is expected to be filled, capping a busy summer.

American Airlines expects to carry nearly 3.5 million passengers on about 32,000 flights between Thursday and next Tuesday. United Airlines is predicting its biggest Labor Day weekend ever, with nearly 2.8 million passengers in that same six-day stretch.

TSA figures show that the number of travelers going through U.S. airport checkpoints in August is 2% higher than in August 2019, before the pandemic.

The good news for travelers is that the rate of canceled flights is down about 19% from last summer, according to data from tracking service FlightAware. Still, the 1.8% cancellation rate since June 1 is a tick higher than during the same period in 2019, and flights delays are even more common than last summer.

Weather has accounted for about three-fourths of all airline delays this year, according to the FAA, but at other times the volume of flights has been too much for FAA air traffic control centers, many of which are understaffed.

Travelers have enjoyed a bit of a break from last year’s skyrocketing airfares. The average fare for a domestic flight in July was down 9% from June and 19% from last July, according to the government’s consumer price index . However, the index sample is skewed toward discount airlines — the biggest airlines have reported that their prices are closer to 2022 levels.

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Planning Holiday Travel? How Wind, Cold and Snow Could Disrupt Your Trip.

A storm could make for treacherous conditions for parts of the country. ‘‘It could be one of the coldest Christmases in a while,’’ one meteorologist said.

Where Saturday Morning’s Predicted Low Temperatures Are Colder Than Normal

Degrees warmer or colder than average low temperature for Dec. 24

By Livia Albeck-Ripka and Judson Jones

• Published Dec. 18, 2022 Updated Dec. 24, 2022

In parts of Montana and the Dakotas, temperatures have already plunged into the minus 20s, leaving some residents unable to start their cars.

In Washington State, on a major interstate highway pummeled by snow, cars and trucks have spun out of control, forcing the highway to close.

And in Seattle, the ghastly weather has also forced the cancellation or delay of hundreds of flights at the city’s major airport, leaving holiday plans upended.

With less than five days to go until Christmas, forecasters are warning of a rapidly intensifying “bomb cyclone” storm that will tear across vast swaths of the country this week, likely disrupting major roadways and air travel. A frigid blast of Arctic air will also sweep south across the country, sending temperatures plunging far below their late-December averages, with parts of every state expected to experience below-freezing temperatures on Christmas Eve, forecasters say.

“The tandem of bitterly cold temperatures and an intensifying storm system over the Rockies and Central Plains by midweek will mean treacherous travel for many locations along and east of the Rockies,” the Weather Service said, adding that anyone in those regions should closely monitor the forecast. In some places, forecasters said, the weather conditions may even prove life-threatening.

The powerful storm is expected to develop and move across parts of the Midwest, Central Appalachians, eastern Great Lakes, Mid-Atlantic and Northeast this week, bringing a mix of strong winds, rain and snow, including blizzard conditions, that could make travel dangerous leading up to the holiday weekend.

In Rugby, N.D., a city of about 2,000 people 150 miles north of Bismarck, residents were already struggling to start their cars as temperatures hit minus 22 on Tuesday afternoon. Such blistering cold is well below the average for this time of year, according to forecasters.

“The second you step outside, it’s pretty much a slap in the face,” said Vita Thomas, who runs a bar in Rugby. She said that while North Dakotans were used to cold temperatures, it was a shock to have to endure it in the lead-up to Christmas. “It’s like walking into a glass door as hard as you possibly could,” she said of the cold.

In the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest, temperatures could dip into the negative teens by Christmas Eve and the following days, according to the service. It said subzero temperatures could reach as far south as the Central Plains, while temperatures in the single digits were expected in the stretch from the Northeast to the Ohio Valley and up to the Great Lakes.

“Combined with wind gusts up to 60 m.p.h., widespread wind chill values could drop to around minus 40 degrees throughout the central and north-central United States,” forecasters with the prediction center said Tuesday. “This level of cold can be life threatening and lead to frostbite on exposed skin in as little as 10 minutes.”

Below-freezing temperatures are forecast even for parts of southern Texas, the Gulf Coast and Florida over the weekend and into next week, the service said. Low temperatures along parts of the Gulf Coast could drop into the teens and low 20s.

The arctic air will dip so far south that it won’t feel like the tropics in Florida this Christmas, with lows falling into the 30s and 40s over the weekend.

“For some folks, it could be one of the coldest Christmases in a while,” said Zackary Taylor, a senior meteorologist with the Weather Prediction Center.

“The cold air spilling southward is certainly some of the coldest air we’ve seen so far this winter and there is the potential there for some record low temperatures,” he said, adding that temperatures across much of the eastern two-thirds of the country were expected to drop as much as 30 degrees below normal for this time of year.

Nearly 40 locations across the United States are forecast to plummet to record-breaking daily cold temperatures on Thursday and Friday.

The cold air mass is expected to begin its surge southward by the middle of the week, sweeping from the Northern Rocky Mountains toward the eastern part of the country.

Every state in the country, if you count the summits in Hawaii, is expected to get below-freezing temperatures on Christmas Eve, said Alex Lamers, the warning coordination meteorologist with the Weather Prediction Center.

When the cold mass begins to move through, it is going to arrive really fast. “The temperature “could drop several dozen degrees in a matter of a few hours, like 30 degrees or so,” Mr. Lamers said.

Along the leading edge of the cold air mass, a winter storm will rapidly intensify across the Midwest and into the Great Lakes.

“Snow is likely to add to the preholiday travel headaches from the central Plains to the Midwest and Great Lakes as a major winter storm begins to develop,” the prediction center forecasters wrote Tuesday.

It will produce not only heavy snow in the Midwest and Great Lakes but also relentless winds leading to blizzard conditions in places like Chicago and Milwaukee.

It’s a stronger-than-normal storm system for the Great Lakes, Mr. Lamers said.

Blizzard conditions will most likely be contained to the Central and Northern Plains, Midwest and Great Lakes.

Blizzards like this one can have a serious impact on travel, and even just getting around outside can be treacherous because of the strong winds.

United Airlines, which has a hub in Chicago, said that it had already issued waivers to passengers traveling to or from any affected airports Wednesday through Friday. Delays may add up in areas of the country that aren’t just experiencing blizzard conditions. “Very strong winds are expected to impact nearly the entire eastern half of the U.S. as this large system becomes fully mature by Thursday night,” the prediction center forecasters said.

It isn’t just air travel that could be an issue; the weather will also have a significant impact on ground-level travel.

“You don’t want to get yourself in a situation where you’re stuck and having to deal with the kind of cold that we’re talking about,” Mr. Lamers said.

While the bitter cold will have a broader impact, “the snow and wind is going to be pretty significant where it does occur,” said Marc Chenard, a meteorologist with the Weather Prediction Center.

Clearing the roads of snow under such conditions could prove challenging. “It’s going to be so cold, it’s not going to melt,” he said.

How much snow falls, and where, will depend on where the center of the storm develops and intensifies.

The forecasters are predicting Tuesday that the greatest chances for over eight inches of snow will be across the states that surround Lake Michigan.

Something else forecasters are watching for is a flash freeze. With the speed of the cold air moving in, if any area receives rain ahead of it, there is the potential for that moisture to freeze before it evaporates.

If the forecast holds, cities on the East Coast, including New York and Washington, are unlikely to have a white Christmas, as the storm will probably pass on Thursday and Friday as a “rain event” before temperatures plummet. New York is forecast to reach a high near 30 degrees on Christmas Day.

Livia Albeck-Ripka is a reporter for The Times based in California. She was previously a reporter in the Australia bureau. More about Livia Albeck-Ripka

Judson Jones is a meteorologist and reporter for The Times, covering the most extreme storms across the globe. More about Judson Jones

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Travel forecast.

FORECAST January 17, 2024

Driven by Tourism Economics' travel forecasting model, the latest U.S. Travel Forecast projects the following:

International travel to the U.S. is growing quickly but is still far from a full pre-pandemic recovery. 

An expected global macroeconomic slowdown, a strong dollar, and lengthy visa wait times could inhibit future growth, with volume reaching 98% of 2019 levels in 2024 (up from 84% recovered in 2023) and achieving a full recovery in 2025. Spending levels, when adjusted for inflation, are not expected to recover until 2026. 

Other countries with whom the U.S. directly competes have recovered their pre-pandemic visitation rates more quickly, and some countries—such as France and Spain—have even increased their share of the global travel market. Meanwhile, U.S. global market share is declining.

Business travel is still expected to grow in 2024, albeit at a slower rate. 

Volume in the sector is expected to end the year at 95% of 2019 levels—up from 89% recovered in 2023. Slowing economic growth will hinder domestic business travel’s recovery, with a full comeback in volume not expected until 2026. Domestic business travel spending is not expected to recover to pre-pandemic levels within the range of the forecast.

Domestic leisure growth decelerated through three quarters of 2023 as consumer spending slowed amid higher borrowing costs, tighter credit conditions and the restart of student loan repayments. 

The sector achieved a full recovery to pre-pandemic levels in 2022. 

To complement the travel forecast table, U.S. Travel has released an accompanying slide deck , which provides context for the latest projections. This document, which appears on the right under "downloads," is available exclusively to U.S. Travel members.

Member Price: $0

Non-Member Price: Become a member to access.

Global Travel Outlook for 2023

December 22nd, 2022 at 6:07 AM EST

Today’s edition of Skift’s daily podcast looks at the global outlook for 2023, top TV spenders in the U.S. this year, and Carnival's optimism.

Skift Daily Briefing Podcast

Listen to the day’s top travel stories in under four minutes every weekday.

Good morning from Skift. It’s Thursday, December 22, and here’s what you need to know about the business of travel today.

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Episode Notes

The travel industry is still facing hurdles such as a possible worldwide recession on its path to a full recovery. So what is the state of travel entering 2023? Skift Research delves into the topic and more with its newly published annual outlook for the travel industry, which features global revenue forecasts for sectors including airlines, hotels and cruise lines.

Senior research analyst Seth Borko writes that travel remains a mixed bag heading into the new year, with pent-up demand catapulting the Americas back to 2019 levels while Asia is beginning its recovery. But every region of the globe is seeing potential for growth, Borko adds.

The outlook also includes projections for cross-border trips between 2023 and 2025 as well as a look at how economic uncertainty could affect the travel industry.

Next, rising Covid cases in recent weeks are making some travelers cautious about going on cruises . Still, Carnival believes that’s not deterring consumers from booking cruises, with the company seeing a surge in bookings for 2023 sailings, reports Associate Editor Rashaad Jorden.

Carnival CEO Josh Weinstein didn’t provide any specific booking figures during Wednesday’s earnings call that reported its fiscal fourth quarter ending on November 30. But he said the desire of many travelers to put Covid behind them has contributed significantly to the booking surge. Weinstein added that Carnival posted a record in revenue per diem during the fourth quarter, adding the company placed 90 ships, roughly 35 percent of its fleet, back in service this year. Carnival generated $3.8 billion in revenue during the fourth quarter, which was 80 percent of 2019 levels. However, the company posted a $1.1 billion adjusted net loss.

We end today with a look at the biggest spending travel brands on U.S. TV in 2022 , through November. Airbnb has taken the top spot, reports Executive Editor Dennis Schaal in this week’s Online Travel Briefing.

Airbnb spent roughly $87 million on ads on national TV in the U.S. during the first 11 months of this year, according to TV analytics firm iSpot.tv. Schaal writes that Airbnb’s heavy emphasis on TV ads is not surprising, noting the company has been vocal about preferring brand advertising on TV to search engine marketing.

However, iSpot.tv found that budget hotel brand Choice Hotels has been the most seen travel company on TV throughout the U.S. in 2022. Choice Hotels ran 139 more ads in the first 11 months of this year compared to the same period in 2021.

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Here are the forecasts for 10 cities in the path of Christmas week blizzard

Only days after the last major winter storm exited the country , an even more powerful cyclone is set to explosively develop over central U.S. and into the Great Lakes during the lead-up to Christmas.

In the worst of the blizzard conditions, visibilities may be reduced to near zero. Wind chills on the backside of the storm as low as minus-40 may promote frostbite in as little as 10 minutes. Gusts may reach as high as 65 mph.

Bomb cyclone to trigger dangerous blizzard, high winds and Arctic cold

Snow totals will vary, but the lengthy assault from strong winds will lead to dangerous conditions whether 4 inches or 18 inches fall. Travel during the peak of the storm — between late Thursday and Friday night — is likely to be severely impinged if not impossible.

Here are forecasts for 10 cities that could see some of the worst of the storm’s effects:

Minneapolis

The Twin Cities are under winter storm warning Wednesday through early Thursday for snowfall of 5 to 8 inches. A winter storm watch is in effect Thursday afternoon through Friday night, for developing blizzard conditions. Blizzard warnings take effect Thursday morning to the southwest of Minneapolis but may be extended east.

Fluffy snow begins Wednesday and lasts into Thursday, with blizzard conditions developing Thursday and peaking Thursday night into Friday. Gusts of 40 to 50 mph are possible. Blizzard conditions persist after snow ends. By Thursday, highs aren’t far from zero and lows are about minus-10. Dangerous wind chills of minus-25 to minus-40 are a threat Thursday to Friday night.

“It is possible that the winter storm watch that is still in effect east of the blizzard warning could be converted to a blizzard warning,” the Weather Service office serving the Twin Cities wrote . “As things stand right now, widespread 40 mph gusts, with areas of 40 to 50 mph, are still forecast.”

How to prepare your home before the blizzard and arctic air strikes

A winter storm warning is in effect Wednesday evening through Saturday morning. About 3 to 5 inches are expected in the city, with more to the northeast.

Snow gets underway late Wednesday and persists into Thursday. Blizzard conditions are possible through Friday night, with wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph forecast. Thursday highs around 10 drop to near zero Friday. Overnight temperatures are near minus-10, with wind chills as cold as minus-20 to minus-40.

“Given the gusty winds, blowing snow, and bitter cold, travel Thursday and Friday will be dangerous and perhaps impossible at times,” the Weather Service office serving Des Moines wrote. “Motorists that become stranded would be in great danger given the extreme cold, and travel during this period is highly discouraged.”

❓ How often do extreme wind chills of -30 to -40 occur? They are very rare, generally only 1-2 hours/year south to around 14/year north. These may occur for 12 hours+ Thu night! ⚠️ Making this even rarer & more dangerous is that they may occur with near blizzard conditions. pic.twitter.com/jNSpg3sqK9 — NWS Des Moines (@NWSDesMoines) December 21, 2022

Kansas City, Mo.

Winter storm warnings are up from midnight tonight until midnight Thursday night. A wind chill warning is out from noon Thursday through noon Saturday. The storm will just be developing as it sweeps across the area, so snow totals are somewhat uncertain, but 2 to 4 inches are projected.

Wind gusts of 45 mph combined with Thursday night temperatures near minus-10 lead to wind chills around minus-35. Thursday’s high is near 30 before plummeting and Friday’s is around 7 degrees as gusty winds persist.

“We are still on track to get bitterly cold temps starting [Thursday] lasting though [Sunday morning],” wrote the Weather Service office serving Kansas City . “While snow totals may not seem like a lot, gusty winds will blow snow around reducing visibilities and making travel hazardous.”

A winter storm warning is in effect from Thursday morning through Thursday evening. A wind chill warning is up Thursday evening through noon Friday. Two to 4 inches of snow is forecast in the city, with heavier totals to the north, although even minor amounts may lead to dangerous conditions.

Rain and snow chances rise after midnight Wednesday night, with a mix turning to snow Thursday and potentially lasting into Thursday night. Thursday highs in the mid-30s are in the teens by sunset, with an overnight low around minus-3. Friday highs are in the single digits, with morning wind chills as low as 30 below zero.

“Confidence is high that dangerous wind chills will occur Thursday evening through Saturday from a combination of strong winds and very cold temperatures,” the Weather Service office serving St. Louis wrote.

Your guide to surviving airport chaos

The Windy City is under a winter storm watch from Thursday evening through Friday night. Snow totals of 3 to 6 inches are expected.

Snow begins Thursday, with blizzard conditions possible Thursday night through Friday night. Thursday highs are near freezing in the morning, and dropping to about 10 in the afternoon. After dipping to the single digits Thursday night, highs near zero and snow plus blowing snow persist Friday. Wind gusts as high as 55 mph may cause power outages, in addition to wind chills as low as minus-35. Weekend lows are near zero with highs around 10.

The Weather Service office serving Chicago wrote: “Potential blizzard conditions [develop] later Thursday night through the day on Friday with wind gusts over 50 mph.” It continued, “ground blizzard conditions (blizzard from only blowing snow) are likely even with just a few inches of snow on the ground.”

A winter weather advisory has been placed over the region, for the first part of the storm Thursday. Winter storm watches have been hoisted from Thursday evening until late Friday night as blizzard conditions are expected to develop. Snow totals have come down a bit in this area compared to earlier forecasts, with 2 to 4 inches now expected.

Snow begins falling near sunrise Thursday, then persists into Friday. Thursday highs are near freezing but falling to the teens in the afternoon. By Friday and Saturday, highs hover in the single digits to around 10. Wind gusts as high as 55 mph can produce wind chills as low as around minus-35.

“These winds will be capable of producing damage to trees and will make travel very difficult in open, exposed areas and along roads where strong cross winds will develop,” the Weather Service office serving Milwaukee wrote. It also is reminding people who must travel to have an emergency kit.

Frigid weather will persist through the weekend, with lows near zero and highs in the midteens for Christmas.

D.C.-area forecast: Cold and calm today, then wet tomorrow before an Arctic onslaught

Winter storm watches were issued for the area early Wednesday morning. They run from Thursday evening through Saturday evening. There is the potential for more than six inches of snow, as well as blizzard conditions.

Precipitation is forecast to start as rain Thursday before turning to snow Thursday night. Snow continues Friday and Friday night. Winds gusts of 45 to 55 mph are a good bet, and possibly higher as the storm center makes its closest approach. High temperatures around 40 Thursday fall off to near 20 for Friday and into the weekend. Lows are near 10, with wind chills of minus-5 to minus-15 likely.

A Winter Storm Watch is in Effect from Thursday evening through Saturday evening for Southeast Michigan. pic.twitter.com/GD8QqvfPdz — NWS Detroit (@NWSDetroit) December 21, 2022

Indianapolis

A winter storm watch is in place Thursday evening through Saturday morning. The snowfall forecast is still coming into focus because of uncertainty in the storm track but the latest call is for 3 to 6 inches.

Rain and snow turns to all snow Thursday night with a low around zero. Winds could gust around 55 mph on Friday with a continued chance of snow and a high near 5. Wind chills dip as low as minus-30 Friday night, with actual temperatures perhaps a few degrees below zero. Teens are likely for highs over the weekend.

“No matter the track of the upcoming storm system, confidence remains very high that some of the coldest air of the year will arrive by the holiday weekend,” the Weather Service office in Indianapolis wrote.

The cold front is now expected to arrive slightly earlier. Behind this front, temperatures will drop 30+ degrees, freezing prior rain/drizzle, immediately leading to travel difficulties. Snow will also begin shortly after frontal passage. Stay tuned for updates! #INwx pic.twitter.com/bTe8h8SsUg — NWS Indianapolis (@NWSIndianapolis) December 21, 2022

Winter storm watches were recently issued for late Thursday night through Sunday morning. Snowfall totals around 4 inches are forecast for the city, and locally higher amounts are possible nearby.

Patchy wintry mix late Thursday turns to snow Thursday night, then persists Friday into Friday night as blowing snow also whips around. Daytime highs are in the teens Friday. Friday night lows are around 5. Gusts peak near 60 mph. Wind chills as low as minus-25 are possible Friday night. Saturday and Sunday highs range from near 10 to the midteens.

“Significant winds and extreme cold will overtake the region and are the main hazards for this event,” the Weather Service office for Cleveland wrote. “Long term cold will pose issues with exposure for people outside and potentially infrastructure.”

A winter storm watch is up for the Buffalo area from Friday morning through Monday morning, for the likelihood of heavy lake effect snow and blizzard conditions. The Weather Service office in Buffalo notes : “A once-in-a-generation storm will produce high winds east of Lake Ontario Thursday night into Friday morning, then over a larger coverage of our region Friday into Saturday.”

Precipitation may start as a rain/snow mix Thursday but turns to rain with the storm center passing to the west. Rain turns back to snow Friday morning as temperatures fall from the 40s to the 20s as the Arctic front passes. A flash freeze is possible given the rapid fall in temperatures. Lake effect snow develops Friday night as winds up to 55 or 65 mph blow snow around. Lows are near and above 10 through the weekend, with highs around 20 both days. Wind chills will be as cold as minus-10 to minus-20.

The Weather Service is also warning of a “prolonged … paralyzing lake effect snow event,” just one month after the historic event in November .

Jason Samenow contributed to this report.

• How to prepare your home for extreme cold, and stay warm in a power outage January 10, 2024 How to prepare your home for extreme cold, and stay warm in a power outage January 10, 2024
• Driving in snow? What to do if your car gets stuck in a winter storm. December 22, 2022 Driving in snow? What to do if your car gets stuck in a winter storm. December 22, 2022
• Arctic air can be dangerous. Here’s what to know about frostbite. February 3, 2023 Arctic air can be dangerous. Here’s what to know about frostbite. February 3, 2023

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• MOUNTAIN TRANSIT
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TRAVEL FORECAST & TIPS

I-70 traffic is quite predictable unless affected by weather or accidents. plan to avoid peak travel times and enjoy a delay-free trip along i-70.  our weekend travel forecast is updated every thursday afternoon., weekend forecast: april 12-14.

The weather this weekend will be warm and sunny, setting up perfect spring skiing conditions!  Although delays won’t be significant, typical traffic patterns will remain, with congestion at predictable times.

Friday WB – Traffic will be slow in from 7:00-10:00 a.m. and again from 3:30-6:00 p.m. but there should not be any significant delays.

Friday EB – Delays are unlikely.

Saturday WB – Plan for traffic congestion between 6:00 a.m. and 11:00 a.m. with approximately 15 minutes extra travel time from C470 to Silverthorne.

Saturday EB – Slow travel is likely between 2:00 and 6:30 p.m. with 15 minutes of extra travel time. 

Sunday WB – Expect slowing from about 6:30-10:00 a.m. but no significant delays are anticipated.

Sunday EB –Traffic will build around Noon and continue until approximately 6:30 p.m. Delays of approximately 30 minutes are possible between Silverthorne and C470.

*The GoI70.com Travel Forecast is based on historical data, a long with an estimation of how weather, construction, public events and other factors might impact travel.

I-70 Daily Snow

Mild temps and sunny skies continue through Sunday. Significant high-elevation snow is likely Monday night. Expect travel impacts along the higher mountain passes from Monday evening through Tuesday morning. Somewhere between mostly dry and maybe a few more chances for snow from Wednesday, April 17 through Sunday, April 21.

TIPS FOR I-70 MOUNTAIN TRAVEL

• Avoid the Peak Travel Times.  If heading eastbound on Saturday or Sunday, plan to leave the mountains after 7:00 p.m. Check the weekend and holiday Travel Forecast.
• ​​​Check the road and traffic conditions before you travel. 
• Check out the Peak Time Deals local businesses offer to help you avoid peak travel times.
• Spend a Sunday night in the mountains and head to work or school early Monday morning.
• Prepare for I-70 mountain driving conditions.  Know the Colorado Traction Law.
• Create or join a carpool with the TreadShare App. 
• Consider taking a bus, train, van to the mountains and leave the driving to someone else. 

IMPORTANT INFO TO KNOW 

Weather, Road Conditions & Accidents  are impossible to predict and can escalate the level and duration of delays dramatically. Check CDOT’s CoTrip.org before you travel.

Colorado’s Traction Law is in effect Sept 1-May 31, regardless of current weather conditions. Learn if your tires meet the Traction Law specifications here .

The Mountain Express Lanes are open on the weekends and holidays to provide a faster and more reliable travel time between Denver and the mountains. Get the Express Toll pass to pay the posted toll rate. Those without a pass will be billed the posted rate plus a service charge. Order the pass at ExpressToll.com .

Holiday Weekends  – When a national holiday falls on a Monday, you can count on Monday afternoon eastbound traffic similar to a typical Sunday pattern, but with higher volume.

Metering  - Traffic metering goes into effect during very high-volume times at the Eisenhower Johnson Tunnel on the eastbound approach.  Metering controls the flow of traffic eastbound towards the Eisenhower Tunnel so traffic does not back up in the tunnel, causing potential safety issues.

TYPICAL WINTER TRAFFIC PATTERNS

With just a bit of planning, travelers can enjoy More Mountains, Less Traffic. Below is the typical winter weekend traffic pattern. The heaviest volumes on the I-70 mountain corridor occur around the holidays and on weekends in January and February, but plan for weekend traffic during the entire ski season. Check the detailed weekend Travel Forecast at the top of this page, posted each Thursday.

Friday Westbound  – Traffic volumes are moderate from approximately 2:00-7:00 p.m. with congestion the most likely to occur in the Floyd Hill area.

Friday Eastbound – A relatively new occurrence, as more daytrippers ski on Friday, there is often slowing 2:00-4:00 p.m.

Saturday Westbound  – To beat the traffic, plan to leave the Front Range by 6:00 a.m. Traffic is consistently at its highest between 8:00 a.m. and 10:00 a.m., resulting in up to one hour of additional travel time. Speeds return to normal soon after Noon. 

Saturday Eastbound  - Saturday eastbound traffic tends to be lower in volume than Sunday. Avoid the 2:00-5:00 p.m. timeframe. 

Sunday Westbound  - Traffic is less of an issue westbound on Sunday mornings but delays are possible in the 7:00 a.m. to 10:30 a.m. timeframe.

Sunday Eastbound  - I-70 traffic starts to build as early as 11:30 a.m.  The peak of the traffic occurs between 3:00-6:00 and drops off soon after 8:00 pm. Expect heavy traffic. To avoid the jam, stay in the mountains for dinner, or spend Sunday night and head back to work or school Monday morning.   GoI70.com Peak time Deals  provide incentives to avoid peak travel times.

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Christmas Travel Outlook: Wind-Driven Snow Will Remain Problematic

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Immigration has helped the hot US economy and labor market, but there's a risk of oversupply, Fitch says

• Foreign-born workers are leading the increase in the US labor force, Fitch Ratings said.
• But a labor demand cooldown may cause an oversupply in the market, it cautioned.
• Jobs growth in the government sector is also fueling the labor market.

US labor momentum seems stuck in high gear, after March added yet another blowout jobs report .

But a simple explanation could lie in US immigration trends, as a surge of foreign-born workers is propelling labor expansion, Fitch Ratings reported on Thursday .

"Increases in the U.S. labor force post-pandemic have been led by foreign-born workers, which represented 19% of the U.S. labor force at YE 2023, higher than 17% as of YE19," the ratings agency wrote. "The foreign-born labor participation rate is 66%, more than the native-born participation rate of 62%."

Related stories

These figures come as net immigration averaged 0.9% of the US population for the past two years, surpassing estimates of 0.3%. 

But while higher immigration flows should keep labor momentum going through this year, Fitch also cautioned that it risks an oversupply. 

That's as weakness is starting to show in labor demand. According to Wall Street analysts, that includes rising layoff announcements, lack of full-time job opportunities, and a plunge in business hirings.

Still, migrants' contribution to labor has significantly boosted economic growth, Fitch said, a point shared by previous research.

For instance, Goldman Sachs lifted its 2024 GDP outlook due to this labor surge, while JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley highlighted immigration's positive impacts on US output.

In a separate report published Thursday, Fitch also named a secondary source fueling the impressive labor market: government hiring.

Job growth in this sector averaged 2.7% on an annual basis in 2023, the highest year-over-year rate since 1990, the ratings firm reported. It's unlikely to slow for now, as government employment is still lagging behind the private sector.

"The post-pandemic recovery for government payroll did not begin until much later in 2021 because most government educational institutions maintained a remote only system with minimal staff throughout 2020," Olu Sonola said in the report, head of U.S. economic research.

Watch: Nearly 50,000 tech workers have been laid off — but there's a hack to avoid layoffs

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Masters weather: Masters start time delayed due to rain in Augusta

Editor's note: Follow live coverage of the Masters, leaderboard, highlights and more.

The Masters is set to begin Thursday morning at Augusta National Golf Club in Augusta, Georgia.

Tee times have been pushed back two and a half hours after Masters officials issued a weather alert early Thursday morning.

As is the case this time of year, the weather can be quite unpredictable – and it can have a significant impact on the way the course plays.

Wet weather makes for softer greens and (generally) lower scores. While drier weather can cause the notoriously fast greens to get even faster.

The weather can also change during the course of the day, which will make the players' tee times another important factor in how they perform in each round.

Here's the latest forecast for Thursday's first round at Augusta.

Masters weather forecast Thursday at Augusta

A wind advisory has been issued by the National Weather Service for Augusta, Georgia, from 8 a.m. Thursday until 8 p.m.

The AccuWeather forecast calls for showers and a heavier thunderstorm Thursday morning, giving way to cloudy to partly cloudy skies later in the afternoon, with breezy conditions throughout the day.

Winds will be out of the south southwast at 18 mph, with gusts to 38 mph.

Temperatures are expected to be in the upper 70s with a 90% chance of precipitation in the morning, and get up to around 80 by the afternoon with the chance of rain decreasing to 40%.

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What Would Happen To The Economy If Thursday Became The New Friday?

The Idea of a Four-Day Workweek is Once Again Gaining Traction in the U.S.

• Some U.S. companies have adopted four-day workweeks after a successful trial of the concept in Great Britain.
• Businesses that have adopted the reduced schedule cite numerous benefits including improved recruitment and in some cases improved productivity.
• Some also point to increased spending on travel and leisure that an extra day off would spur as a benefit to the economy.
• Senator Bernie Sanders introduced legislation setting 32 hours as the standard workweek, but some economists say shortened weeks would require more jobs in an already tight labor market.

What if every weekend was a three-day weekend? The idea of shortening the workweek is once again gaining traction, and raising questions about how it would affect everyday life and the economy. 

Unlikely allies have floated the idea—Steve Cohen, the billionaire hedge fund manager/owner of the New York Mets and Bernie Sanders, the Democrat senator from Vermont.

Earlier this month, Cohen went on CNBC ’s Squawk Box show and explained his investment in golf startup league CGL: Courses will become crowded on Fridays as more companies shift to a four-day schedule, partly because advances in artificial intelligence will enable people to get more work done in less time.  

“My belief is a four-day workweek is coming,” he said. “Between the advent of AI, generally, we hear from people that people are just not as productive on Fridays. And so I think it’s an eventuality.” 

If Sanders has his way—a longshot in the politically divided Congress—the shift would be immediate, not gradual. A bill he introduced last month would in effect mandate a 32-hour workweek by making overtime pay kick in at 32 hours instead of 40. Companies that reduced work hours would be forbidden from lowering their employees’ take-home pay. 

Sanders framed it as an issue of fairness: As technology has made all kinds of businesses more productive and boosted companies' profits, workers should also enjoy the benefits.  

“The financial gains from the major advancements in artificial intelligence, automation, and new technology must benefit the working class, not just corporate CEOs and wealthy stockholders on Wall Street,” Sanders said in a statement. “It is time to reduce the stress level in our country and allow Americans to enjoy a better quality of life. It is time for a 32-hour workweek with no loss in pay.”

Less Work for Some is More Business for Others

A report released last week by KPMG showed that 30% of the chief executive officers of large companies surveyed for its 2024 U.S. CEO Outlook Pulse Survey are looking at the possibility of shifting work schedules to 4-day or 4.5-day workweeks.

Should the four-day workweek become standard, either because of business trends or federal law, it would transform the economy and the workplace. 

Recent research—as well as the experiences of companies that have already tried it out—suggest a move to no-work Fridays could affect the economy in some surprising ways.

Just because people aren’t at work doesn’t mean they aren’t participating in the economy. Cohen is not alone in believing employees not working one day a week would spend their time (and money) on leisure. That’s what happened at COLAB, a digital marketing agency in Richmond, Virginia that switched to a four-day, 32-hour work week in 2022 as an experiment and decided to make it permanent after it went so well.  

“We had a ton of people do a lot more travel now that they had three-day weekends,” said Morgan Witham, CEO of COLAB.

The CEOs of two other companies that recently switched to a four-day work week—CX Pilots, a customer experience consulting company in Raleigh, North Carolina, and Brick Media Group, a social media managing agency in Tampa, Florida—also said their employees did more traveling. 

Indeed, in a survey by a researcher at the University of Reading in Britain published in 2019, 54% of workers said if they were given an extra day of work off a week, they’d spend it shopping, 43% would go to the movies or theater, and 39% would eat out at restaurants.  

“An extra day off could have a knock-on effect for the wider society,” Miriam Marra, a business professor, wrote in a post on The Conversation. 

Fitter, Happier, More-Productive Employees

Those companies also found their workers were able to get the same, or more work done in the compressed work week than they had before.

“ Productivity , if anything, was better,” said Jake Kurtz, CEO of Brick Media Group. “If you're working on creative things all week and you're coming up with ideas and you're making designs and making graphics and doing photos and videos, sometimes you just need to let your mind not think about that stuff for an extended period of time. I was noticing that people from the team were coming back a lot more refreshed on Monday.” 

At COLAB, compressing the workweek forced people to focus on using their time as efficiently as they could, Witham said. Time-sucking meetings were canceled or combined.

“We were able to strip away things that we felt weren't super impactful to our work or our feeling of engagement,” Witham said.

At Brick, employee happiness translated into increased profits. Moving to the four-day schedule improved employee retention meaning less turnover, which helped retain the clients those employees worked with. Revenue rose 75% the first year under the new schedule, Kurtz said.

Some of the benefits were harder to translate into dollars. Many employees used their days off to spend with family or to enjoy the outdoors—a popular option in sunny Tampa, where Brick is located. “People are outside doing workouts and just enjoying being outside and having like a wellness day,” Kurtz said. 

A large-scale test of the four-day workweek found similar results—increased employee health and happiness, with slightly better financial performance. 

In 2022, 61 British companies participated in a six-month trial of the compressed schedule. Analyzing the outcome, researchers at Cambridge University found that 57% fewer employees quit than the same period the previous year and sick days fell 65%. Perhaps more telling, 92% of the companies that tried out the policy said they were keeping it.  

More Workers Would Be Needed

Of course, some companies have already done everything they can think of to increase productivity. Workplaces already optimized to the hilt would have to hire more people to get the same amount done. That’s why several countries throughout history have mandated shorter working hours in order to increase employment. 

For example, during the Great Depression, when a quarter of the workforce was unemployed, the U.S. Senate passed a bill shortening the workweek to 30 hours so that the available work was spread around more. It never became law.  

Critics question whether shortening the workweek would be a wise move at a time when unemployment is near historic lows and there are more jobs available than unemployed workers to fill them. Some economists in Britain, where the study was carried out, have come out against the idea. “Such a reduction would exacerbate labour shortages,” Wim Naudé, a professor of economics at the University of Cork, wrote in The Conversation. “It would also squeeze public finances—for example health services would require more staff, thus raising the wage bill.”

An Old Idea Whose Time is Arriving?

Not every company uses Sanders’ definition of the four-day workweek, maintaining the standard eight-hour workday. At CX Pilots, for instance, workers made up for the shortened work week by working four ten-hour days the rest of the week. That’s also a common schedule in professions like healthcare, policing, and other industries where four-day work weeks have become increasingly popular in recent years. A 2022 study by economists at the University of Texas and Michigan State found that in 2018, four-day work weeks were three times more common than they were in 1973, accounting for an extra 8 million jobs. Employers that offered four-on, three-off shifts were likely to do so mainly to accommodate the preferences of their employees, rather than because it created other potential efficiencies, such as saving on power bills by having a facility closed an extra day a week.  

That was the case at COLAB, where the four-day workweek started as a way to attract and retain talent.

“We were just kind of throwing money at the roles that we compete for,” Witham said. “We’re a small agency, so we can’t necessarily fight for good talent only on the basis of salary and money.”

Witham believes the schedule has given COLAB a recruiting edge over its rivals—every single person COLAB has hired since the trial began cited the four-day week as a reason they joined the company, she said. 

The idea seems to be gathering some momentum. Steven Keith, CEO of CX Pilots, said he decided to test out the four-day workweek after hearing about the success of the British experiment. Since his company’s work involves improving clients’ company culture, he figured adopting a four-day week would set a good example. 

“If we’re telling people that you really need to have a really extraordinary culture, we have to embody that,” he said. “It's been a tremendous success, far greater than I thought it would be.”

CNBC. " Steve Cohen says a 4-day work week is coming in part because of AI ."

Bernie Sanders. " Thirty-Two Hour Workweek Act ."

KPMG. " 2024 U.S. CEO Outlook Pulse Survey ."

COLAB. " Morgan Witham ."

The Conversation. " Economics of a four-day working week: research shows it can save businesses money ."

Brick Media Group. " Embracing the Four-Day Work Week ."

University of Cambridge. " Would you prefer a four-day working week? "

The Conversation. " Five reasons why the four-day week won’t work ."

National Bureau of Economic Research. " Days of Work Over The Half-Century: The Rise of The Four-Day Week ."

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