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World destinations welcomed 22% more international tourists in the third quarter of 2023 compared to the same period last year, reflecting a strong Northern Hemisphere summer season (UNWTO Tourism Barometer November 2023 – Press Release) .

An estimated 975 million tourists travelled internationally between January and September 2023, an increase of 38% over the same months of 2022, though 13% fewer than in 2019 (UNWTO Tourism Barometer November 2023-Excerpt) .

Overall, tourism recovered 87% of pre-pandemic levels in January-September 2023. That puts the sector on course to recover almost 90% by the end of the year. And international tourism receipts could reach USD 1.4 trillion in 2023, about 93% of the USD 1.5 trillion earned by destinations in 2019 (UNWTO Tourism Barometer November 2023 – Press Release) .

Asia and the Pacific reached 62% of pre-pandemic levels this period due to slower reopening to international travel. However, performance among subregions is mixed, with South Asia recovering 95% of pre-pandemic levels but North-East Asia only about 50% (UNWTO Tourism Barometer November 2023 – Press Release) .

According to Trip.com, global search results for inbound travel to China have significantly improved in Q3 2023 by nearly 40% compared to Q2. In terms of Chinese outbound travel, hotel and air ticket reservations made have already recovered 80% of pre-pandemic levels in Q3. This show signs of gradual recovery of cross-border traffic further to China’s reopening of borders early this year. On 24 November, China announced a unilateral 15- day visa-free entry policy for holders of ordinary passports from France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Spain, and Malaysia, during the period from 1 December 2023 to 30 November 2024 (UNWTO Tourism Barometer November 2023-Excerpt) .

International tourism is well on track to fully recover pre-pandemic levels in 2024 despite economic challenges such as high inflation and weaker global output, as well as important geopolitical tensions and conflicts (UNWTO Tourism Barometer November 2023 – Press Release) .

Read more on the UNWTO Tourism Barometer (November 2023 excerpt) here .

About the UNWTO World Tourism Barometer

The UNWTO World Tourism Barometer is a publication of the World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) that monitors short-term tourism trends regularly to provide global tourism stakeholders with up-to-date analysis of international tourism. The information is updated several times a year and includes an analysis of the latest data on tourism destinations (inbound tourism) and source markets (outbound tourism). The Barometer also includes three times a year Confidence Index based on the UNWTO Panel of Tourism Experts survey, which provides an evaluation of recent performance and short-term prospects for international tourism.

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WTO / 2024 GLOBAL TRADE OUTLOOK

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STORY: WTO / 2024 GLOBAL TRADE OUTLOOK TRT: 06:29 SOURCE: WTO RESTRICTIONS: NONE LANGUAGE: ENGLISH / NATS

DATELINE: 10 APRIL 2024, GENEVA, SWITZERLAND

1. Wide shot, WTO headquarters exterior 2. Med shot, WTO entrance 3. Close up, WTO logo at entrance gate 4. Med shot, WTO entrance 5. Wide shot, panelists 6. Close up, report 7. SOUNDBITE (English) Ralph Ossa, Chief Economist, World Trade Organization (WTO): "We are very happy today to release our Global Trade Outlook and Statistics report for April 2024." 8. Zoom out, podium 9. SOUNDBITE (English) Ralph Ossa, Chief Economist, World Trade Organization (WTO): "We expect a gradual recovery in world merchandise trade volume in 2024 and 2025 after a contraction in 2023 that was driven mostly by the lingering effects of high energy prices and inflation in advanced economies, particularly in Europe. Specifically, we expect merchandise trade to grow by 2.6 percent in 2024 and 3.3 percent in 2025 after falling by 1.2 percent in 2023. However, the presence of numerous downside risks has added to the uncertainty that is inherent in all economic forecasts, and especially trade forecasts. These include regional conflicts, geopolitical tensions, and economic policy uncertainty. In value terms, merchandise trade fell 5 percent in 2023 to US$ 24.01 trillion, but the decline was mostly offset by a 9 percent increase in commercial services trade, which reached US$ 7.54 trillion. Total goods and services trade was only down 2 percent." 10. Close up, journalist 11. SOUNDBITE (English) Ralph Ossa, Chief Economist, World Trade Organization (WTO): "While the trade environment is clearly challenging, we should not paint too dark a picture of international trade." 12. Close up, listener reading the report 13. SOUNDBITE (English) Ralph Ossa, Chief Economist, World Trade Organization (WTO): "So, the big picture is really one of resilience in international trade." 14. Tilt up, journalist typing 15. SOUNDBITE (English) Ralph Ossa, Chief Economist, World Trade Organization (WTO): "Most of the trade volume decline between 2022 and 2023 was driven by Europe, which subtracted 1.7 percentage points from global import growth and reduced global export growth by 1.0 percentage points. Other industrialized regions also weighed on trade growth, but less so than Europe. Looking ahead, we expect all regions to make positive contributions to export and import growth in 2024." 16. Close up, camera operator and camera display 17. SOUNDBITE (English) Coleman Nee, Senior Economist, World Trade Organization (WTO): "I would like to draw your attention to the section of the report dealing with evidence of global value chain fragmentation. In this section, we document that bilateral trade between China and the United States grew 30 percent more slowly since 2018 than their trade with the rest of the world. Even so, total bilateral trade in parts and components by region of major reporting countries, shown in the right panel above, has not changed much, suggesting the GVCs are evolving rather than collapsing." 18. Close up, pan, journalist typing 19. SOUNDBITE (English) Barbara D'Andrea Adrian, Senior Statistician, World Trade Organization (WTO): "Services trade continued to expand rapidly in 2023, and this despite the decline of transport, which declined, which dropped, 8 percent globally. Negative transport growth reflects the return of shipping rates to pre-pandemic levels. The attacks on Red Sea shipping have reversed this downward trend. However, the impact of these recent disruptions on freight rates is moderate compared with pandemic peaks, and this is due to low demand. By contrast, the difficult economic context and geopolitical tensions have not affected consumers' spending on travel, and this is benefiting both passenger transport and tourism, two sectors which were ravaged by the pandemic." 20. Pan right, photographer to podium 21. SOUNDBITE (English) Barbara D'Andrea Adrian, Senior Statistician, World Trade Organization (WTO): "Global exports of digitally delivered services reached US$ 4.25 trillion in 2023, up 9 percent year-on-year, and accounting for 13.8 percent of world exports of goods and services. Now, the value of these services, that are digitally delivered, so traded cross borders through computer networks and encompassing everything from professional services to streaming of music and videos, and remote education, online gaming, they all surpassed, the value surpassed pre-pandemic levels by over 50 percent in 2023." 22. Med shot, photographer 23. Pan right, listening shot panelists 24. Close up, Ralph Ossa listening 25. Close up, Coleman Nee listening 26. Wide shot podium 27. Close up, podium 28. Close up, report 29. Wide shot, journalist addressing panel 30. Med shot, journalist taking notes 31. Close up, Ismaila Dieng, Director, WTO Information and External Relations Division

The World Trade Organization’s (WTO) “Global Trade Outlook and Statistics”, released today (10 Apr) in Geneva, forecasts a rebound in global trade but warned of downside risks.

Global goods trade is expected to pick up gradually this year following a contraction in 2023 that was driven by the lingering effects of high energy prices and inflation, WTO economists said in a new forecast on 10 April.

SOUNDBITE (English) Ralph Ossa, Chief Economist, World Trade Organization (WTO): "We expect a gradual recovery in world merchandise trade volume in 2024 and 2025 after a contraction in 2023 that was driven mostly by the lingering effects of high energy prices and inflation in advanced economies, particularly in Europe. Specifically, we expect merchandise trade to grow by 2.6 percent in 2024 and 3.3 percent in 2025 after falling by 1.2 percent in 2023. However, the presence of numerous downside risks has added to the uncertainty that is inherent in all economic forecasts, and especially trade forecasts. These include regional conflicts, geopolitical tensions, and economic policy uncertainty. In value terms, merchandise trade fell 5 percent in 2023 to US$ 24.01 trillion, but the decline was mostly offset by a 9 percent increase in commercial services trade, which reached US$ 7.54 trillion. Total goods and services trade was only down 2 percent."

The volume of world merchandise trade should increase by 2.6 percent in 2024 and 3.3 percent in 2025 after falling 1.2 percent in 2023. However, regional conflicts, geopolitical tensions and economic policy uncertainty pose substantial downside risks to the forecast.

SOUNDBITE (English) Ralph Ossa, Chief Economist, World Trade Organization (WTO): "Most of the trade volume decline between 2022 and 2023 was driven by Europe, which subtracted 1.7 percentage points from global import growth and reduced global export growth by 1.0 percentage points. Other industrialized regions also weighed on trade growth, but less so than Europe. Looking ahead, we expect all regions to make positive contributions to export and import growth in 2024."

SOUNDBITE (English) Coleman Nee, Senior Economist, World Trade Organization (WTO): "I would like to draw your attention to the section of the report dealing with evidence of global value chain fragmentation. In this section, we document that bilateral trade between China and the United States grew 30 percent more slowly since 2018 than their trade with the rest of the world. Even so, total bilateral trade in parts and components by region of major reporting countries, shown in the right panel above, has not changed much, suggesting the GVCs are evolving rather than collapsing."

SOUNDBITE (English) Barbara D'Andrea Adrian, Senior Statistician, World Trade Organization (WTO): "Services trade continued to expand rapidly in 2023, and this despite the decline of transport, which declined, which dropped, 8 percent globally. Negative transport growth reflects the return of shipping rates to pre-pandemic levels. The attacks on Red Sea shipping have reversed this downward trend. However, the impact of these recent disruptions on freight rates is moderate compared with pandemic peaks, and this is due to low demand. By contrast, the difficult economic context and geopolitical tensions have not affected consumers' spending on travel, and this is benefiting both passenger transport and tourism, two sectors which were ravaged by the pandemic."

SOUNDBITE (English) Barbara D'Andrea Adrian, Senior Statistician, World Trade Organization (WTO): "Global exports of digitally delivered services reached US$ 4.25 trillion in 2023, up 9 percent year-on-year, and accounting for 13.8 percent of world exports of goods and services. Now, the value of these services, that are digitally delivered, so traded cross borders through computer networks and encompassing everything from professional services to streaming of music and videos, and remote education, online gaming, they all surpassed, the value surpassed pre-pandemic levels by over 50 percent in 2023."

The April 2024 edition of the report analyses recent global trade developments up to the fourth quarter of 2023 and presents the organization’s forecasts for world trade in 2024 and 2025. Breakdowns of merchandise and commercial services trade by sector and region are provided, together with details on leading traders.

For the first time, the publication includes a special analytical section on a recent development in international trade. The analysis looks at how the conflict in the Middle East has threatened sea shipments through the Red Sea and Suez Canal, disrupting trade links between Europe and Asia. It takes a deeper look at the crisis and examines possible consequences for trade in 2024.

The report is timed to coincide with the release of the WTO’s latest quarterly and annual trade statistics, which can be downloaded from the WTO’s online database at stats.wto.org. An update of Global Trade Outlook and Statistics will be issued in October.

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Global trade to recover steadily after rare fall in 2023, WTO says

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Dysfunction and division darken the WTO’s 30-year dream of free trade

As the organisation’s anniversary nears, borders around the world are closing again

When trade ministers gathered in the Moroccan city of Marrakech 30 years ago this month to sign the agreement creating the World Trade Organization (WTO), the mood was celebratory. The Berlin Wall had come down only recently, communism had collapsed, and there was optimistic talk of how the body would prise open new markets and act as the arbiter when disputes broke out between countries.

The atmosphere today is much darker than it was in April 1994. Any enthusiasm for groundbreaking trade liberalisation deals disappeared decades ago and has been replaced by covert – and often overt – protectionism.

Relations between the US and China are at a low ebb, and likely to get worse. Late last month, China formally opened a WTO case against the US in which Beijing attempted to safeguard its electric vehicle industry, saying Joe Biden’s subsidies to promote green manufacturing in America broke global trade rules.

The dispute over Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) highlights three trends: an ebb tide for globalisation , the increasingly difficult relationship between the world’s two biggest economies, and the dysfunctional state of the WTO itself.

There is scant hope that China’s case against the US will ever be resolved, because the WTO can no longer settle disputes. Any country on the wrong side of a WTO ruling has the right to go to appeal, but the appellate body needs judges to operate and since late 2019 the US has been blocking any new appointments to the panel.

That’s not the only reason Washington will stand firm over the IRA. At root, the problem is being caused by China’s huge trade surplus with the US and the Biden administration’s conviction that America’s deficit is the result of unfair competition.

Responding to China’s formal objection to the financial support provided by the IRA, Katherine Tai, the US trade representative, said it was a case of the pot calling the kettle black, given China’s record of protecting its own manufacturers.

Neil Shearing, chief economist at the consultancy Capital Economics , says there has been a “substantial expansion” of China’s manufacturing capacity since the Covid pandemic. In part, he says, that reflects a response to increased global demand but it also – as in the case of electric vehicles – represents a deliberate policy decision by Beijing to go for market share.

Donald Trump, Biden’s rival in this year’s race for the White House, has promised tough action to prevent the American car market being flooded. Having slapped $300bn of tariffs on Chinese imports when he was president, Trump now says he would impose a 100% tariff on Chinese cars imported from Mexico, a 50% tariff on other Chinese goods and a 10% tariff on goods made elsewhere in the world.

“Those big monster car manufacturing plants you are building in Mexico right now and you think you are going to get that – not hire Americans, and you’re going to sell the car to us, no,” Trump said. “We are going to put a 100% tariff on every car that comes across the lot.”

Trump has made it clear he is not bothered by the possibility that China or other countries might respond with tit-for-tat measures that would penalise US exporters. “You screw us and we’ll screw you,” he said. “It’s very simple, very fair.”

Biden uses less emotive language, but in reality has taken a tough line with China on trade. Keith Rockwell, a fellow at the Hinrich Foundation and a former WTO director, says: “No matter who wins the presidential election, the future of US-China trade relations don’t look that bright. All of Trump’s tariffs are still in place. Biden hasn’t removed a single one.”

Shearing says: “One of the very few bipartisan issues left in Washington is the imbalanced nature of the US trading ­relationship with China. Investors may be nervous about the potential return of Mr Trump and the threat of a renewed trade war, but that conflict looks ever more likely, whether the next administration is Democrat or Republican.”

The US-China schism is not the only source of trade tension. As the WTO’s director general, Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, noted, in addition to the familiar global north-south disputes there had been signs at the recent WTO ministerial meeting in Abu Dhabi of south-south splits. These reflect the insistence among some of the bigger developing countries – such as India and Brazil – that their voices should be heard.

Okonjo-Iweala declared that it could not be “business as usual” when she took over in Geneva just over three years ago, but has found it hard to forge agreement among the WTO’s 166 members.

Evan Rogerson, a former senior WTO official and now a fellow at the Centre for Multilateralism Studies in Singapore, says the recent WTO ministerial meeting in Abu Dhabi was a disappointment, failing to make any substantive multilateral progress other than the accession of two small countries – Timor-Leste and Comoros.

“Not going backward on a 25-year-old moratorium on e-commerce duties was touted as a success,” he says. “On the critical agenda items – agricultural trade, fisheries subsidies, and reform of the WTO’s dispute-settlement mechanism – ministers simply kicked the can down the road, undertaking to continue work and once more extend deadlines that few expect to be met.”

In a recent article, Okonjo-Iweala said meaningful reform would require developing countries to take a bigger role. “The bottom line is that concerted collective effort is required to deliver WTO agreements and create an organisation capable of tackling this century’s problems. Failure to achieve these aims can no longer be blamed solely on the United States – or any one country, for that matter – for lack of leadership or loss of interest.”

But the US stance will be critical if the WTO is going to fulfil its role policing global trade. Rockwell says if Biden is re-elected it is possible that he would be more open-minded in a second term about some trade issues – including the way disputes are handled. “If Trump wins, there will be no change,” he adds.

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