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2022 Tour Championship picks, odds: Expert predictions, favorites to win FedEx Cup Playoffs from betting field

Who will take home the season-long crown this week in atlanta.

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The 2021-22 PGA Tour season has been one of runs for some of the top golfers in the sport, and it will all come to an end this week at the Tour Championship. The FedEx Cup Playoffs race has been as heated as ever with players like Cameron Smith, Rory McIlroy, Xander Schauffele and Tony Finau all experiencing torrid stretches throughout the year. Despite the depth of this premier talent, it should come as no surprise that world No. 1 Scottie Scheffler is the man atop the season-long standings ahead of the postseason finale at East Lake.

Commanding the top spot for most of the season, Scheffler has been able to parlay his hot spring that included four victories into the pole position at the Tour Championship. The Masters champion has an opportunity to collect the most money ever for a PGA Tour season but will not be without worthy contenders in Atlanta.

Reigning PGA Tour Player of the Year Patrick Cantlay has been terrific in 2022 , and his consistency finally paid dividends at the BMW Championship as he successfully defended his title for his first solo victory of the year. The 30-year-old became the first man to defend a playoff event and will now attempt to become the first to win back-to-back FedEx Cup crowns. He will begin the Tour Championship two strokes behind Scheffler at 8 under.

Factor in former FedEx Cup champions Justin Thomas and Jordan Spieth, and this year's Tour Championship is sure to be electric. In a season that has been filled with unexpected twists and turns -- both on and off the golf course -- more of the same should be in store this week at East Lake with the FedEx Cup and an $18 million grand prize up for grabs.

Let's take a look at a full set of predictions and picks from our CBS Sports experts as we attempt to project who will win and what will happen at the final event of the season.  Odds via Caesars Sportsbook.

2022 Tour Championship expert picks, predictions

Kyle Porter, senior golf writer

Winner -- Scottie Scheffler (12/5):  It's true that, at 10 under, he has a head start on the field at the Tour Championship. It's also true that, in eight rounds played at this golf course, he's been seventh-best of anyone in this field. It's  also  true that he's coming in off a tasty T3 last week at the BMW Championship. But perhaps the reason I'm most convinced that Scheffler is going to win is because he's owned this entire season. We've seen this happen so many times. before -- Spieth in 2015, Thomas in 2017 -- where a star caps the year with a win to touch off all the rest. That's the most intangible of all the reasons Scheffler might win this week, but it might also be the most compelling.

Sleeper -- Viktor Hovland (65-1):  I went as deep down the board as I could to find the player who I think could go on the most ridiculous heater. Hovland is that guy (although you could talk me into Joaquin Niemann as well). He'll start at 2 under, eight back of Scheffler, but he played this course well last year (65 on Sunday to finish T4 on the shadow leaderboard). While he doesn't come in particularly hot, I'm playing the Hovland who has been a microwave over the course of his career and hoping he shoots 66 in Round 1 so you have something to hedge against.

Top 10 lock -- Xander Schauffele:  It's impossible to go against Schauffele, who enters at 6 under with the following finishes at East Lake over the last five years: 1, T7, 2, T2, T5. I have no further evidence to present Judge Beth L. Freeman.

Star who definitely won't win -- Jordan Spieth:  Not only does he enter eight back of Scheffler, but it's just not there for Spieth right now like it was when he won RBC Heritage and nearly did the same at the Byron Nelson earlier this season.

Surprise prediction -- Low Cameron will be a surprise:  Smith or Young? I'm going with the latter even though the former -- who it seems is headed to LIV Golf a week after the Tour Championship -- has put together the significantly better year. Smith will start a stroke ahead of Young and has beaten him in six of the eight tournaments they've played together this year, but he has struggled on this course and may be looking ahead to the following week. Also, that's why they call it a surprise prediction because the No. 2 player in the world losing a matchup to a zero-time PGA Tour winner would, indeed, be a surprise.

Lowest round:  64 (-6) Winning score:  -23 Winner's Sunday score:  68 (-2)

Patrick McDonald, golf writer

Winner -- Scottie Scheffler (12/5): The world No. 1 has been the best player in 2022 and should cap off a memorable year in fashion. He begins the Tour Championship with a two-stroke lead, and while his history at East Lake is not extensive, it is sound. In his debut appearance in Atlanta two years ago, his 72-hole total fell short only to Schauffele. Simply put, if the putter cooperates, Scheffler is your FedEx Cup champion.

Sleeper -- Billy Horschel (175-1):  It is difficult to really look in the direction of any sleeper, but Horschel proved to be up to the challenge last season. He will begin the week at 1 under and comes into East Lake flying under the radar. The Florida product hasn't been great since his impressive victory at the Memorial, but in his mind, he may still have something to prove to garner a captain's selection for the U.S. Presidents Cup team -- although I think he is a lock. East Lake is a really nice fit for Horschel's game, and his iron play showed signs of life at the BMW Championship.

Top 10 lock -- Jon Rahm: The Spaniard is my selection to card the low 72-hole total this week -- disregarding the staggered start. Rahm was terrific over the weekend at the BMW Championship as he carded 10 birdies against zero bogeys to collect yet another top-10 finish in the FedEx Cup Playoffs. He has signed for rounds of 68 or better in seven of his last eight rounds at East Lake and is ultra dangerous as he is beginning to find his stroke on the greens.

Star who definitely won't win -- Justin Thomas: Originally I had written up Will Zalatoris, but due to his withdrawal, I will instead go with another bold selection of Thomas. A winner here in the past, Thomas simply is not in the midst of the quality that led him to the FedEx Cup in 2017. The PGA Championship winner has not collected a top-10 finish since the Canadian Open and has struggled on the greens over the past month.

Surprise prediction -- Sepp Straka makes a serious run: I have poked fun at the big Austrian both online and behind closed doors, but make no mistake, he is capable in this setting. Straka showed plenty of gumption in his playoff loss to Zalatoris, and his game may be on a trajectory similar to this past spring when he broke through at the Honda Classic. His four top-10 finishes in 2022 have come at the PGA National, TPC Sawgrass, Harbour Town Golf Links and TPC Southwind -- all shorter Bermuda-laced golf courses with three residing in the southeast United States. The former Georgia star will surprise in his return to the Peach State.

Lowest round: 64 (-6) Winning score: -21 Winner's Sunday score: 68 (-2)

Who will win the Tour Championship 2022, and which longshots will stun the golfing world?  Visit SportsLine to see the projected leaderboard  -- all from the model that's nailed eight golf majors entering the weekend -- and find out. 

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Tour Championship picks 2023: Sungjae Im is ready to peak

OLYMPIA FIELDS, ILLINOIS - AUGUST 17:  Sungjae Im of South Korea smiles on the ninth hole green during the first round of the BMW Championship, the second event of the FedExCup Playoffs, on the North Course at Olympia Fields Country Club on August 17, 2023 in Olympia Fields, Illinois. (Photo by Keyur Khamar/PGA TOUR via Getty Images)

Well, we made it to the very end, folks, and we made sure to get at least one more winner for you before we call it a season. Shoutout to our anonymous caddie picker of the week, who correctly predicted Viktor Hovland's stunning victory at the BMW Championship.

More from Golf Digest

Do we have one more in us? We think so, though with the wonky, starting strokes format, it's a bit harder to hit a proper outright this week. Unless, of course, you explore the "winner without"-type markets, which is just what our panel did for the Tour Championship at East Lake.

Scroll down to see who we like this week at the 2023 Tour Championship.

RELATED: Who’s in, who’s out and where they stand at the 2023 Tour Championship

Tour Championship picks 2023: Our Experts’ Outright Predictions

Anonymous Caddie Picker of the week : Rory McIlroy (+330, winner with starting strokes, DraftKings) — Rory admitted he “found” something on the back nine at the BMW, which is scary for the rest of the field, considering how much he tears up East Lake and how elite his ball-striking has been lately.

Pat Mayo, DraftKings/Fantasy National, Mayo Media Network analyst : Sungjae Im (35-1, winner without starting strokes, DraftKings) — After going MIA for a few months upon his return from winning in Korea, Sungjae is almost all the way back to top form. He’s had consecutive top 10s in the playoffs and now gets a course perfectly suited to his skill in East lake, an accuracy-based, Bermudagrass, Donald Ross design.

Brandon Gdula, FanDuel/numberFire managing editor : Patrick Cantlay (10-1, winner without Scottie Scheffler, FanDuel) — Cantlay starts at four under, which means he’s four off of Hovland, and he can make up that gap. Cantlay trails just Scheffler and Rory in terms of strokes-gained/tee-to-green over the past 50 rounds, per datagolf, and is due for some positive putting regression soon.

Rick Gehman, data scientist and RickRunGood.com founder : Rory McIlroy (+330, winner with starting strokes, DraftKings) — McIlroy has gained at least eight strokes to the field in each of his last nine starts, per the RickRunGood.com golf database. Now he’ll earn the benefit of starting just three shots off the lead and also boxing out the vast majority of the field from overtaking him. His record around East Lake is unmatched, gaining 1.44 strokes per round over 36 rounds. This is a perfect storm setting up for McIlroy to win his fourth FedEx Cup.

Stephen Hennessey, Golf Digest dep. managing editor : Sungjae Im (35-1, winner without starting strokes, DraftKings) — Sungjae finished runner-up here last year, and given the hot ball-striking—gaining more than seven strokes on the weekend at Olympia Fields—he enters this week with as much confidence as he’s probably had in awhile.

Christopher Powers, Golf Digest staff writer : Sungjae Im (35-1, winner without starting strokes, DraftKings) — Starting at two under, eight off the lead of Scottie Scheffler, Im will be full speed ahead when he arrives at East Lake, something he’s become accustomed to at the Tour Championship. Last year, after starting at four under, Im when 16 under cumulative, which was only one shot shy of winner Rory McIlroy in both the 72-hole cumulative format and the starting strokes format. Couple that with the fact that Im’s finally heating up again, having posted back-to-back top 10s in the playoffs, and I like his chances to take it deep every day and “win” the tournament within the tournament this week.

Andy Lack, RickRunGood.com and Inside Golf podcast : Russell Henley (35-1, winner without starting strokes, DraftKings) — Considering I feel strongly that Scottie Scheffler is going to run away with the actual FedEx Cup, let’s turn our attention to hunting for value in the “without” market. Henley just put together his third top-10 finish in a row at the BMW Championship, where he finished second in an elite field to only Scheffler in strokes-gained/tee-to-green. The Georgia alum now travels to a golf course in East Lake that should be far better suited for his game than Olympia Fields.

Past results: As we head into the final week of the season, the panel remains as hot as ever, with 14 outright victories on the year as a group. Our anonymous caddie is the latest to hit a winner, cashing on Viktor Hovland at the BMW at 16-1. Stephen Hennessey also recently nailed Lucas Glover’s Wyndham Championship victory at 80-1 (!), while Pat Mayo picked up his first win of the season with Rickie Fowler’s comeback win at the Rocket Mortgage at 14-1. Rick Gehman was on Fowler, too, giving him two outright hits on the year. Brandon Gdula leads the way with SIX of his own, his last coming in the U.S. Open where Gdula touted Wyndham Clark at 85-1 (!!).

Listen to Golf Digest's weekly betting podcast, "The Loop," (below) where we interview the industry's leading experts (and sometimes tour pros) to help you make your bets and pick your fantasy lineups. And be sure to subscribe to "The Loop" wherever you get your podcasts!

Tour Championship picks 2023: Sleepers/Dark Horses Who Could Win

Caddie: Brian Harman (50-1, winner with starting strokes, DraftKings) — This is no fluke of a season from Brian. He is an absolute grinder and last week proved he can contend on any type of golf course right now.

Mayo: Lucas Glover (55-1, winner without starting strokes, Bet365) — He wins two weeks in a row, has a poor putting week at the BMW and now his odds are double what they were last week in a much smaller field. The Glove still gained four strokes on approach last week, and East Lake suits his game much more.

Gdula: Tommy Fleetwood (35-1, winner without Scottie Scheffler, FanDuel) — This is a pretty solid number for Fleetwood, who starts three under. That puts him five off the lead and four off of McIlroy and three off of Rahm, but he can go low and has the irons dialed in.

Gehman: Brian Harman (50-1, winner with starting strokes, DraftKings) — Harman’s season has been sensational and his recent form offers plenty of reason to be optimistic. He’s earned five top-12 finishes in his last six starts, which also includes a win at the Open and a runner-up during that stretch. It’ll be difficult for him to win, starting at four under, but he’s a likely candidate to fly up the leaderboard.

Hennessey, Golf Digest: Max Homa (35-1, winner with starting strokes, Caesars Sportsbook) — I’m with CP here … Homa has proven that he thrives when he’s in contention, and if he cards a low one in round one or two, he’ll be right there. He’s got nothing to lose, which is a dangerous thing in this format, as we’ve seen with guys making up big deficits in the past.

Powers, Golf Digest: Max Homa (35-1, winner with starting strokes, Caesars Sportsbook) — Yes, he’s six back, but he has four rounds to make it up. Viktor Hovland made up a seven-shot deficit in just two rounds last week. We know Homa can go mega-low, doing so last year here at East Lake, shooting a second-round 62 and backing it up with two 66s to finish just four back of McIlroy (solo third in cumulative scoring).

Lack: Tony Finau (60-1, winner without starting strokes, DraftKings) — This might be wishful thinking, but I still believe a Ryder Cup spot is up for grabs this week for whoever plays the best out of Lucas Glover, Sam Burns, Keegan Bradley, Russell Henley, and Tony Finau. The six-time PGA Tour winner is still the class of that group if we take long-term form into the equation, although he has not been playing like it recently. If he's got anything left in the tank this season however, East Lake is the type of golf course that should accentuate what he does best. It's been a frustrating couple of months for a player that still somehow ranks in the top 12 in the world in true strokes-gained over the last 12 months. Let's give him one more shot to revert back to his long-term baseline.

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Tour Championship picks 2023: Players We’re Fading

Caddie: Scottie Scheffler (+130, winner with starting strokes, DraftKings) — I expect Scheffler to be there until the very end. He’ll bounce right back after last week. But when it comes down to the last few holes, there’s a mountain of evidence that proves his putting stroke is in a weird place right now.

Mayo: Jon Rahm (+800, winner without starting strokes, DraftKings) — Game has slipped in the past few months. Will still win player of the year if you can find good odds on him in that market, though.

Gdula: Jon Rahm (+850, winner without starting strokes, FanDuel) — Starting at six under, Rahm is within striking distance but is still overvalued. He should be more in the 10-1 to 12-1 range.

Gehman: Patrick Cantlay (16-1, with starting strokes, DraftKings) — Despite a FedEx Cup win in 2021, Cantlay’s record around East Lake is pretty scary. He’s never gained strokes putting in five trips and has given back a total of 21.07 strokes on the greens in those 20 rounds. His position on the leaderboard, six shots off the lead, will be a significant uphill battle and even more so when you look at the names at the top of the board that he would have to surpass.

Hennessey, Golf Digest: Scottie Scheffler (+130, winner with starting strokes, DraftKings) — I’d personally love to see Scheffler get it done, given his historic ball-striking season has only been paid off with a few victories. But the young Texan has lost almost a stroke per round putting at East Lake in his prior 12 rounds. This price is just silly and proof of why this format doesn’t work .

Powers, Golf Digest: Scottie Scheffler (+130, winner with starting strokes, DraftKings) — Faded him last week and almost looked like a fool, but felt better about it when he, not surprisingly, missed a couple of crucial late putts that would have gotten him over the line. There’s no question he’ll be there until the very end this week with a two-shot lead, but can you really trust that putter at +130? CrazyTown.

Lack: Jon Rahm (+800, winner without starting strokes, DraftKings) — I’m not ready to sound the alarm bells yet, but something is up with Jon Rahm’s driver. It’s now been back-to-back starts where the Spaniard’s greatest weapon has not been remotely up to his usual standards. It’s always cause for concern when a player’s greatest strength turns into a weakness, and while it could flip at any moment, Rahm’s recent off the tee play is cause for concern.

RELATED: Tour Championship DFS picks 2023: Keep riding Rory McIlroy

Tour Championship picks 2023: Matchups

Caddie: Sungjae Im (-130, Round 1 matchup) over Tony Finau (DraftKings) — Tony is struggling big time, finishing barely in the top 40 last week, whereas Sungjae is on a heater.

Mayo: Sungjae Im (-120, with starting strokes) over Corey Conners (DraftKings) — I love Sungjae this week, and Conners may have the worst resume at East Lake over the past few years of anyone in the field.

Gdula: Si Woo Kim (-120, Round 1 matchup) over Sepp Straka (FanDuel) — Kim is a great course fit for East Lake, and grades out as the much better ball-striker. He just doesn’t putt as well.

Gehman: Corey Conners (-110, without starting strokes) over Tony Finau (Bet365) — I don’t mind picking on Finau who has struggled for the past few months, earning just one top-10 finish in his last 10 events. He continues to lose multiple strokes on the greens nearly every time he tees it up. Conners, on the other hand, has been trending in the right direction finishing inside the top 10 in both playoff events. His game is sharp and his ability to play out of the short grass should help him at East Lake.

Hennessey, Golf Digest: Rory McIlroy (-115, Round 1 matchup) over Scottie Scheffler (FanDuel) — McIlroy’s East Lake record is out of this world, and he’s gaining nearly three strokes per round over his past 36 rounds, distancing himself from Scheffler at this point ball-striking wise. Rory should be in attack mode early trailing Scheffler, too, so I really like this one.

Powers, Golf Digest: Rickie Fowler (+100, with starting strokes) over Tommy Fleetwood (DraftKings) — These two are both starting at three under, so we’re all even here. They both tied for 25th last week but it was Fowler who striped his irons while Fleetwood’s went cold.

Lack: Tommy Fleetwood (-120, with starting strokes) over Rickie Fowler (DraftKings) — This feels like the perfect situation for Tommy Fleetwood. He’s too far back to have a legitimate chance of winning, but he still possesses some of the most upside in the field based on the rate that he gains over three strokes per round to the field compared to his peers. I love this course fit for him as well, as the Englishman has a sterling resume on Bermudagrass greens and is one of the more accurate drivers of the ball in this field. Fowler, on the other hand, with his Ryder Cup bid all but secured, folded like a cheap suit over the weekend down the stretch at Olympia Fields, and has yet to finish top 20 since his win in Detroit. In what could be a preview of what’s to come in Rome, I expect Fleetwood to roll.

Matchup Results from the BMW Championship: Gehman: 1 for 1 (Henley (-125) over Clark); Gdula: 1 for 1 (Clark (-110) over Day); Mayo: PUSH (Fleetwood (-120) over Morikawa); Powers: 0 for 1; Lack: 0 for 1; Caddie: 0 for 1; Hennessey: 0 for 1

Matchup Results from this season (Wins-Losses-Pushes): Powers: 23-17-2 (up 5.81 units); Gehman: 23-17-2 (up 4 units); Lack: 18-13-1 (up 2.83 units); Caddie: 21-17-4 (up 2.65 units); Hennessey: 22-18-2 (up 2.62 units); Mayo: 16-21-2 (down 5.49 units); Gdula: 17-24-2 (down 8.32 units)

Tour Championship picks 2023: Top 10s

Caddie: Xander Schauffele (-115, with starting strokes, DraftKings) — If there’s one player I trust as much as Rory here at East Lake, it’s Xander.

Mayo: Si Woo Kim (+330, with starting strokes, DraftKings) — Accuracy has been off the charts in 2023 for Si Woo, and if you see Pete Dye or Donald Ross under “Course Designer” you know he’s live to be on the leaderboard come Sunday.

Gdula: Russell Henley (+160, with starting strokes, FanDuel) — Henley has the accuracy and irons to play well at East Lake, and he’s already starting at three under. The model shows value on Henley to inch his way up the leaderboard this week.

Gehman: Russell Henley (+160, with starting strokes, FanDuel) — Henley has piled up three straight top-10 finishes and has gained strokes to the field in eight of his last 10 starts. He’s only played the Tour Championship twice and those date back to 2014 and 2017, but he’s gained 11.57 strokes to the field in those eight events.

Hennessey, Golf Digest: Russell Henley (+160, with starting strokes, FanDuel) — I’ll add to Rick’s reasoning above that Henley is third in Fairways Gained and sixth in Good Drives Gained on Fantasy National, which should produce some great opportunities with his red-hot irons.

Powers, Golf Digest: Sam Burns (+500, with starting strokes, DraftKings) — He’s starting at even par so he’s got a lot of work to do, but might only take one really low one to leapfrog a bunch of guys and find yourself hovering around the top 10 this week.

Lack: Sungjae Im (+230, with starting strokes, DraftKings) — Sungjae Im remains one of the five players in this field to qualify for East Lake in each of the past four seasons, and with a runner-up finish last year, he’s really starting to get acquainted with the Atlanta staple. Sungjae always seems to heat up at this time of year, and his five top 25s at the Donald Ross-designed Sedgefield, which features similar agronomy and also places an emphasis on finding the fairway, should be translatable to further high end finishes at East Lake. Coming off a seventh at the BMW, I expect Sungjae to continue his playoff success in Atlanta.

Top-10 results from the BMW Championship: Gehman: 1 for 1 (Max Homa +200); Hennessey: 1 for 1 (Viktor Hovland +145); Everybody else: 0 for 1

Top-10 results from this season: Gehman: 13 for 42 (up 23.6 units); Gdula: 10 for 42 (up 4.8 units); Hennessey: 8 for 42 (up 3.40 units); Lack: 8 for 32 (up 0.4 units); Mayo: 8 for 39 (down 3.9 units); Caddie: 9 for 42 (down 4.1 units); Powers: 5 for 42 (down 6.4 units)

Tour Championship picks 2023: One and Done

Gehman: Wyndham Clark — If your one and done continues into the Tour Championship, you should be firing up the best available player that you have remaining. For me, that’s Wyndham Clark. I’m not thrilled about this, but Clark showed a little positive play last week in Chicago, finishing T-15 and hopefully ending a short slump.

Previous weeks: Fortinet Championship: Emiliano Grillo. Sanderson Farms Championship: Sam Burns. Shriners: Taylor Montgomery. Zozo: Sungjae Im. CJ Cup: Matt Fitzpatrick. Bermuda: Denny McCarthy. Mayakoba: Viktor Hovland. Houston Open: Aaron Wise. RSM Classic: Brian Harman. Sentry TOC: Cameron Young. Sony Open: Hideki Matsuyama. American Express: Brian Harman. Farmers: Jason Day. AT&T Pebble Beach: Maverick McNealy. WMPO: Scottie Scheffler. Genesis: Justin Thomas. Honda: Sungjae Im. API: Rory McIlroy. Players: Jon Rahm. Valspar: Justin Rose. WGC-Match Play: Cameron Young. Valero: Rickie Fowler. Masters: Jordan Spieth. RBC Heritage: Collin Morikawa. Zurich: Kurt Kitayama. Mexico Open: Ben Martin. Wells Fargo: Viktor Hovland. Byron Nelson: K.H. Lee. PGA Championship: Xander Schauffele. Charles Schwab Challenge: Min Woo Lee. Memorial: Patrick Cantlay. RBC Canadian Open: Tyrrell Hatton. U.S. Open: Brooks Koepka. Travelers: Tony Finau. Rocket Mortgage: Cameron Davis. John Deere: Denny McCarthy. Scottish: Matt Fitzpatrick. Open: Dustin Johnson. 3M: Emiliano Grillo. Wyndham: Si Woo Kim. FedEx St. Jude: Max Homa. BMW: Lucas Glover.

Hennessey: Keegan Bradley — I believe I’ve used every other player above Keegan on the odds board, which is a reason why OAD leagues should never include the Tour Championship.

Previous weeks: Fortinet Championship: Cam Davis. Sanderson Farms Championship: Denny McCarthy. Shriners: Emiliano Grillo. Zozo: Hideki Matsuyama. CJ Cup: Sungjae Im. Bermuda: Mark Hubbard. Mayakoba: Viktor Hovland. Houston Open: Jason Day. RSM Classic: Brendon Todd. Sentry TOC: Patrick Cantlay. Sony Open: Matt Kuchar. American Express: Brian Harman. Farmers: Will Zalatoris. AT&T Pebble Beach: Seamus Power. WMPO: Collin Morikawa. Genesis: Justin Thomas. Honda: Chris Kirk. API: Keith Mitchell. Players: Rory McIlroy. Valspar: Adam Hadwin. WGC-Match Play: Tyrrell Hatton. Valero: Nick Taylor. Masters: Scottie Scheffler. RBC Heritage: Jordan Spieth. Zurich: Sahith Theegala. Mexico Open: Gary Woodland. Wells Fargo: Xander Schauffele. Byron Nelson: Tyrrell Hatton. PGA Championship: Jon Rahm. Charles Schwab Challenge: Justin Rose. Memorial: Corey Conners. RBC Canadian Open: Tommy Fleetwood. U.S. Open: Max Homa. Travelers: Tom Kim. Rocket Mortgage: Rickie Fowler. John Deere: Adam Schenk. Scottish: Min Woo Lee. Open: Brooks Koepka. 3M: Cameron Young. Wyndham: Russell Henley. FedEx St. Jude: Wyndham Clark. BMW: Lucas Glover.

Powers: Scottie Scheffler — Boy, I really am a dope for not using Scheffler yet.

Previous weeks: Fortinet Championship: Sahith Theegala. Sanderson Farms Championship: J.T. Poston. Shriners: Sungjae Im. Zozo: Hideki Matsuyama. CJ Cup: Tyrrell Hatton. Bermuda: Russell Knox. Mayakoba: Thomas Detry. Houston Open: Sepp Straka. RSM Classic: Davis Riley. Sentry TOC: Xander Schauffele. Sony Open: Gary Woodland. American Express: Cameron Young. Farmers: Taylor Montgomery. AT&T Pebble Beach: Maverick McNealy. WMPO: Sungjae Im. Genesis: Collin Morikawa. Honda: Chris Kirk. API: Will Zalatoris. Players: Patrick Cantlay. Valspar: Justin Suh. WGC-Match Play: Tom Kim. Valero: Matt Kuchar. Masters: Tony Finau. RBC Heritage: Rickie Fowler. Zurich: Robby Shelton. Mexico Open: Luke List. Wells Fargo: Viktor Hovland. Byron Nelson: Tom Hoge. PGA Championship: Brooks Koepka. Charles Schwab Challenge: Tommy Fleetwood. Memorial: Shane Lowry. RBC Canadian Open: Justin Rose. U.S. Open: Dustin Johnson. Travelers: Tom Kim. Rocket Mortgage: Ludvig Aberg. John Deere: Denny McCarthy. Scottish: Adam Scott. Open: Rory McIlroy. 3M: Sepp Straka. Wyndham: Aaron Rai. FedEx St. Jude: Sam Burns. BMW: Jordan Spieth.

About our experts

Pat Mayo is an award-winning video host and producer of long and short-form content, and the host of The Pat Mayo Experience daily talk show. Mayo helped create the golf stats and research website Fantasy National along with the Race for the Mayo Cup One and Done contest. Mayo won the 2022 Fantasy Sports Writing Association Daily Fantasy Writer of the Year and is a finalist for three FSWA Awards in 2023 (Best Podcast, Daily Fantasy Writer of the Year, Golf Writer of the Year). His 27 FSWA nominations lead all writers this decade and are second-most all-time. Follow him on Twitter: @ThePME .

Brandon Gdula , managing editor and analyst for NumberFire, a FanDuel daily-fantasy analysis company, recently won the 2018 FSWA Golf Writer of the Year. Gdula also co-hosts the DFS Heat Check podcast. Follow him on Twitter: @gdula13 .

Rick Gehman is the founder of RickRunGood.com and the RickRunGood YouTube Channel, is one of the industry’s leading experts on golf DFS and gambling. Gehman is co-host of the First Cut Podcast and appears regularly on the Pat Mayo Experience golf podcasts. Follow him on Twitter: @RickRunGood .

Andy Lack is a PGA Tour writer and podcaster from New York City who now resides in Los Angeles. He hosts Inside Golf, a twice weekly podcast focused on the PGA Tour, betting, daily fantasy, golf course architecture, and interviews, as part of the BlueWire podcast network. As well as contributing to Golf Digest, Andy is also a data analyst and writer for RickRunGood.com, where he covers PGA Tour betting and daily fantasy. He came to Golf Digest’s betting panel after previously writing for Golf.com, the Score and GolfWRX. In his free time, Andy can likely be found on a golf course. Follow him on Twitter: @adplacksports

Tour Championship Betting Picks and Predictions

The PGA Tour is in Atlanta, Georgia, for the Tour Championship. OddsChecker's golf handicapper and expert Andy Lack gives us his best picks for the 2023 Tour Championship.

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Scottie Scheffler plays his tee shot on the 3rd hole during the final round of the BMW Championship.

The remaining 30 players on the PGA Tour head to Atlanta, Georgia for the final event of the 2022-2023 season. This tournament has undergone a number of structural changes over the years. Starting in 2007, it was the final event of the four tournament FedEx Cup playoffs, with eligibility determined by FedEx Cup points accumulated throughout the season. From 2019 onward, the FedEx Cup was reduced to three events, and the Tour Championship moved from mid September to late August. What also changed in 2019 was the addition of a staggered start. The PGA Tour wanted to ensure that the winner of the tournament this week would also be the winner of the FedEx Cup. 

The player with the most FedEx Cup points leading into this week ( Scottie Scheffler ) will begin the tournament at 10-under par. The player with the second most points ( Viktor Hovland ) will begin at eight under par. The player with the third most points ( Rory McIlroy ) will begin at seven under par, and so on down to the fifth at five under par. Player ranked six through 10 will begin at four under, 11 through 15 will begin at three under, and so on, all the way down to numbers 26-30, who will begin at even par. East Lake Golf Club has been the Tour Championship’s home since 2004, and it is once again sure to provide a stern test for the game’s very best.

Before we get into our picks for the Tour Championship, make sure to take a moment to check out these awesome sports betting offers for this week. We have teamed up with OddsChecker to ensure that you claim $1000s in first-bet bonuses so that you can bet on these 2023 Tour Championship selections with more confidence this week.

Tour Championship: Course Preview

East Lake Golf Club in Atlanta, Georgia was designed by Donald Ross in 1913, but it received a substantial renovation by Rees Jones over the last fifteen years. Rees enacted his usual method of pinching in the fairways, adding bunkers and adding length, and East Lake now features the most narrow fairways on the PGA Tour. Jones’ methods have not necessarily made the course more challenging however, as last year it ranked 24th out of 38 courses in scoring difficulty, and we saw 17 rounds of 65 or better. Of course, much of that has to do with the fact that much of the fat has been trimmed, and all 30 players that have made it to this week are here for a reason. 

East Lake still features some gnarly and unpredictable Bermuda rough, and it ranked ninth out of 38 courses in missed fairway penalty, and sixth out of 38 courses in rough penalty. Unlike other mid scoring to tougher courses Bermuda courses such as TPC Southwind, TPC Sawgrass, and PGA National, East Lake is not defined by its water hazards. Water only comes into play on four holes and East Lake ranked 32nd out of 38 courses last year in penalty strokes. East Lake is a death by 1,000 paper cuts course, far more in the same vein as Innisbrook than the aforementioned water intensive tracks. 

Outside of the Bermuda rough, East Lake’s greatest defense is its stout quartet of par threes, which all play over 200 yards. While playing from the fairway is certainly essential at the Donald Ross design, nearly 40% of strokes gained over the last two years have come via approach. We’ve even seen inaccurate drivers find some modicum of success here with elite approach play. The green complexes here, unlike other Ross courses, are actually incredibly benign and provide very little pushback. East Lake ranked amongst the easiest on the PGA Tour last year in strokes gained around the green and putting difficulty. The formula this week is accurate driving combined with a mix of precise short iron and long iron play. The starting strokes obviously throws an interesting wrench into the betting markets this week, but East Lake remains a proper ball-striker’s course where we can take our chances with the flat-stick.

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Tour Championship Key Stats

  • Driving Accuracy Percentage
  • Recent Approach Play
  • Strokes Gained Tee to Green: Bermuda Courses

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Tour Championship: Outright Winner

Scottie Scheffler (+162) (Bet $100 to collect $262) Bet365 has the best Scottie Scheffler odds

There is really only one fitting solution to this PGA Tour season, and that’s Scottie Scheffler running away with the FedEx Cup after his historic ball-striking run. With another top-five finish at the BMW, his 12th of the season, Scheffler was up to his old tricks once again. The former Masters Champion gained over 13 strokes ball-striking at Olympia Fields, which is the best that he’s hit the ball since the Memorial. Once again, his flat-stick prevented him from crossing the finish line. 

Fortunately for him, East Lake features some of the easiest and most straightforward greens on the PGA Tour, and it is a difficult golf course to chase on. Scheffler generally spots a stroke or two on the field every week with his putter while lapping the field in tee to green. Even if he gives back one or two on the greens, it’s hard to imagine that anyone catches him on this golf course. Scheffler remains the number one driver of the ball, and number one approach player in this entire field, and East Lake is the perfect golf course to accentuate his ball-striking prowess and mask his putting woes. We’re due for a runaway, and this is the week we’ll get it.

As you can see, it is imperative that you compare the  Tour Championship odds at OddsChecker.

Scottie Scheffler is now best-priced at +162 at Bet365, +150 at BetRivers, +140 at DraftKings, and +135 at FanDuel, a stark $27 to $12 difference in returns. Make sure to pick the best sportsbook for your Scottie Scheffler pick with OddsChecker.

Russell Henley (Without Starting Strokes) (+3300) (Bet $100 to collect $3,400) Go to Bet365 to get the best Russell Henley odds

Considering I feel strongly that Scottie Scheffler is going to run away with the actual FedEx Cup, let’s turn our attention to hunting for value in the “Without Starting Strokes” market. While it is to let fly under the radar, there are few players in the world playing better golf right now than Russell Henley. The Georgia alumni just put together his third top-10 finish in a row at the BMW Championship, where he finished second in an elite field to only Scottie Scheffler in tee to green. Henley now travels to a golf course in East Lake that should be far better suited for his game than Olympia Fields. 

The three-time PGA Tour winner is one of the biggest risers both from tee to green and with the flat stick when placed on Bermuda golf courses, and his four top-10 finishes in a row at the Donald Ross-designed Sedgefield Country Club should be translatable to success at East Lake as well. While Henley has not played the Atlanta staple since 2017, he has a 12th and a third in two starts at East Lake, gaining over four strokes to the field in both occurrences. This is unsurprising, considering that he is the only player to rank top-five in this field in both accuracy and overall approach play. I am completely enamored by Henley’s course fit, and I see a tremendous amount of value on him to shoot the lowest 72 hole score in his native state of Georgia.

A PGA Tour writer and podcaster from Manhattan, New York, Andy Lack has contributed to sites such as Golf Digest, GolfWRX, OddsChecker Rotoballer, the Score, and now Golf Monthly. Andy is also the host of a golf betting and daily fantasy podcast, Inside Golf Podcast, as well as "The Scramble” with Rick Gehman, and a recurring guest on the Pat Mayo Experience. When he’s not writing, Andy can likely be found somewhere on a golf course pursuing his lifelong dream of qualifying for the U.S. Amateur.

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predictions for pga tour championship

PGA Tour Championship Picks, 2023 Predictions, Props, Payout & Odds

  • Author: Mark Lammey, Spotlight Sports

Patrick Cantlay

The Tour Championship is finally upon us, which marks what many consider to be the final tournament of the PGA Tour season. The most recent format has had the FedEx Cup Playoffs split into three events, with this week being the final one. The St. Jude Championship and BMW Championship did not disappoint, and this week should be no different.

Our experts provided an early preview in this article , and we’ve added to our PGA Tour Championship picks below. We also have a guaranteed $200 DraftKings Sportsbook welcome offer for you, so be sure to read on for all the details.

PGA TOUR CHAMPIONSHIP PICK: Patrick Cantlay to finish top 5 (+180 at DraftKings Sportsbook)

Click here to sign up at DraftKings for a guaranteed $200 bonus after a $5+ bet on anything, including our PGA Tour Championship picks.

Expert Betting Picks for the 2023 PGA Tour Championship

Before fully diving into our PGA Tour Championship picks, it’s vital to outline the format for this tournament. That’s because it is unlike any event on the PGA Tour, and it’s a relatively recent change.

Beginning in 2019, the top golfers in the FedEx Cup point standings receive a ‘head start’ of sorts. The tournament only features the top 30 in those standings, so it’s already one of the most prestigious. However, it’s set up for the #1-ranked golfer to have a clear advantage. This year, that will be Scottie Scheffler, and here’s how it works.

Scheffler will begin the week at -10. Then, Hovland at #2 will start at -9. That concept trickles down to #5, who will start at -5. Then, golfers 6-10 start at -4, 11-15 start at -3, 16-20 start at -2, 21-25 start at -1 and 26-30 start at even par. All that to say it must be considered when making PGA Tour Championship picks, which our experts did in our best bet below.

Golf Predictions, Props & Best Bets for the PGA Tour Championship in 2023: Patrick Cantlay to Finish Top 5

In our early preview, our experts targeted an outright winner to get our PGA Tour Championship picks started. If you’d rather not take quite as big a risk, we've added to our PGA Tour Championship picks with a prop market for you.

Patrick Cantlay is the world #4 and is ranked #7 in the FedEx Cup standings. That means he’ll be starting this week at -4. There’s no denying that’s significantly behind the -10 of Scheffler, but we’re also not asking Cantlay to win. While the new format has only been in place for a few years, what’s been in place much longer is the location.

The Tour Championship has been at the East Lakes Golf Club in Atlanta, Georgia since 2004, and three other times before that. Given that Cantlay just won this event at this course two years ago, we’re confident in his ability to navigate the ins and outs of it. On top of that, Cantlay finished tied-seventh here just last year.

With that type of track record, we’re comfortable adding to our PGA Tour Championship picks with Cantlay to finish top five (+180 at DraftKings Sportsbook) .

How to Place a $5 Bet at DraftKings Sportsbook on Cantlay & Get $200 No Matter the Result

Now that you have our PGA Tour Championship picks, let’s go through how easy it is to claim your guaranteed $200 DraftKings bonus :

  • Use this link to create a new DraftKings account; no promo code required
  • Deposit at least $5
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When we say guaranteed, that means your $5+ bet doesn’t even have to win! That’s 40 times your wager amount no matter what, and you can bet on anything, not just our PGA Tour Championship picks. Don’t let such a generous promotion pass you by and join DraftKings today .

Latest Betting Odds for the 2023 PGA Tour Championship Courtesy of DraftKings

In terms of our PGA Tour Championship picks, Cantlay to finish top five has +180 odds at DraftKings Sportsbook , so a $10 bet profits $18 as long as he indeed finishes within the top five golfers. You can also see the favorites to win the tournament outright below:

  • Scottie Scheffler: +140
  • Rory McIlroy: +330
  • Viktor Hovland: +500
  • Jon Rahm: +800
  • Patrick Cantlay: +1600
  • Max Homa: +2800
  • Xander Schauffele: +2800
  • Matt Fitzpatrick: +4000
  • Lucas Glover: +4000
  • Brian Harman: +5000
  • Wyndham Clark: +5000

PGA Tour Championship Payout for 2023

Following back-to-back tournaments with a $20 million purse, it’s fair to wonder what the payout for the Tour Championship is. With this being the final of the trio of events, the winner will now receive $18 million himself! In fact, just for making the field, a minimum of $500,000 is guaranteed.

Top 30 PGA Golfers: FedEx Cup

Speaking of making the field, the Tour Championship is reserved for the top 30 golfers in the FedEx Cup point standings, which we’ve listed for you below:

  • Scottie Scheffler
  • Viktor Hovland
  • Rory McIlroy
  • Lucas Glover
  • Patrick Cantlay
  • Brian Harman
  • Wyndham Clark
  • Matt Fitzpatrick
  • Tommy Fleetwood
  • Russell Henley
  • Keegan Bradley
  • Rickie Fowler
  • Xander Schauffele
  • Corey Conners
  • Taylor Moore
  • Nick Taylor
  • Adam Schenk
  • Collin Morikawa
  • Emiliano Grillo
  • Tyrrell Hatton
  • Jordan Spieth
  • Sepp Straka

Whether another golfer caught your eye, or you just want to ride with our PGA Tour Championship picks, now is the time to sign up at DraftKings to snag your guaranteed $200 bonus.

If you or a loved one has questions or needs to talk to a professional about gambling, call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit 1800gambler.net for more information.

The Arena Media Brands, LLC and its partners may receive compensation for links to products and services on this website. The Arena Media Brands editorial team is not involved in the creation of this content.

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Pinehurst #10 opened last week. Want to play it?

PGA Championship betting guide: 13 picks our expert loves at Oak Hill

Our expert likes Xander Schauffele's chances this week.

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Welcome to our weekly PGA Tour gambling-tips column, featuring picks from GOLF.com’s expert prognosticator, Brady Kannon. A seasoned golf bettor and commentator, Kannon is the host of the HeatStrokes  podcast.  You can follow him on Twitter at  @LasVegasGolfer , and you can read below to see his favorite plays for the PGA Championship, which kicks off Thursday at Oak Hill in Pittsford, N.Y. Keep scrolling past Kannon’s picks, and you’ll also see data from Chirp,  a free-to-play mobile platform  that features a range of games with enticing prizes, giving fans all kinds of ways to engage in the action without risking any money.

Golf’s second major championship of the season is upon us. The 105 th   PGA Championship will take place at Oak Hill Country Club in Rochester, NY., the host course to six major championships since it opened for play in 1926.

Oak Hill is a Donald Ross design. It last hosted a major in 2013, when Jason Dufner won the PGA Championship, going off at about 40-1. As we have seen on Tour for the past three weeks now, Oak Hill, too, is a big, long, golf course, suited to bombers. It will play as a par-70, at just under 7,400 yards.

When Dufner won in 2013, he did it by driving the ball very straight, finding the tree-lined fairways. The Oak Hill the players will face this year will be substantially different. More than 600 trees were removed in 2019, as part of a restoration by the architect Andrew Green.. The fairways remain narrow, about 27 yards wide on average, but with the tree removal, more room has been created for second shots through the limbs.

The rough will be thick. Not necessarily overly long but dense and wet with this championship being played in May. It was not that long ago that there was snow in this part of the country. The greens have all been redone. Green was assigned the task of trying to revitalize some of the original styles and design intentions of Donald Ross . The greens are on the Ross-like smaller side and will have the traditional Ross run-off areas. All of the bunkers were remodeled and will be very penal with steep faces and deep wells, both around the greens and in the fairways.

Tyrrell Hatton reacts to putt at PGA Tour event

Why this long shot is primed for his first major win: 2023 PGA Championship odds

Many of the statistics that I have looked at over the past few weeks, in Mexico, at Quail Hollow, and last week at the Byron Nelson, apply this week. Off the tee, I considered Total Driving, Driving Distance, and Strokes Gained: Off the Tee. On approach, I looked at Greens in Regulation Gained and Strokes Gained: Approach. I also looked at Hole Proximity from 175 – 200 yards and from 200+. Note that this course features 12 Par 4’s of over 460 yards, two Par 3’s stretching to 230 yards, and two Par 5’s that are both over 600 yards.

Around the greens, I looked at Scrambling, Sand Saves, Bogey Avoidance, and Strokes Gained: Putting (Bentgrass).

Three tournaments on the PGA Tour are held on Donald Ross designs: the Wyndham Championship at Sedgefield Country Club, the Tour Championship at East Lake, and the Rocket Mortgage Classic at Detroit Golf Club. I don’t feel like any of these are especially similar to Oak Hill, but there is enough there with a common course designer to at least consider them among the correlated courses this week. The others that I believe have greater similarities are Muirfield Village, home to the Memorial; Bethpage Black, which hosted the 2019 PGA Championship; Torrey Pines, host of the Farmers Insurance Open and the 2021 U.S. Open site, Winged Foot, home to the U.S. Open in 2020; Harding Park, which hosted the 2020 PGA Championship; and Whistling Straits, host of the 2015 PGA Championship. Finally, I also looked at Aronimink, another Donald Ross design in the northeast that played host to the 2018 BMW Championship as a part of the FedEx Cup Playoffs.

We got back on the beam last week, hitting Jason Day outright . We also went 3-1-1 in our head-to-head matchups. Let’s see if we can continue that trend in a major.

To Win the PGA Championship (and finish Top 10)

Xander schauffele (23-1).

Schauffle has been a Top 10-machine in majors, and he’s been dominant at East Lake with finishes of 1-7-2-2-5-4. He was 16 th  at Bethpage in 2019, 10 th  at Harding Park in 2020, fifth at Winged Foot in 2020, and seventh at the U.S. Open at Torrey Pines in 2021. He’s also been red-hot as of late. His last six starts go as follows, 2-4-4-10-5-19. Schauffele is fifth on Tour in SG Approach, 12 th  in Hole Proximity from 175-200, 27 th  in Scrambling, and 14 th  in Bogey Avoidance. He looks primed to seriously contend once again.

Struggling from thick rough? Tony Finau gives his some tips for amateurs when they're faced with a difficult lie around the green

Tony Finau (33-1)

I grabbed this number on Finau after 36-holes were complete in Mexico. I felt that he was going to go on to win, so I jumped on the price before it was chopped. He is much like Schauffele in the sense that he has contended a number of times at major championships and at the correlated courses. In fact, he won at a Ross design last summer, winning the Rocket Mortgage Classic at Detroit Golf Club. He tops the board in my stats this week with what he does off the tee, his touch around the greens, plus the fact that he is No. 1 on Tour in SG Approach.

To Win the PGA Championship Outright (and finish Top 20)

Brooks koepka (23-1).

What has long been said about Koepka only truly caring about the majors  was never more evident than it was last month when he led the Masters for the first three days, ultimately finishing runner-up. He has four majors to his credit along with nine Top 10 finishes in majors since 2014. He’s won twice on the LIV Tour and comes off of a third and fifth place finish in his last two LIV events, closing with two straight rounds of 65 last week. In those last two events, he was fifth and seventh in Total Driving and 8th each week for Greens in Regulation. As far as the correlated courses, he was fifth at Whistling Straits in 2015, fourth at the U.S. Open in 2021, and won the Wanamaker Trophy at Bethpage Black in 2019. He also has Top 6 finishes at both East Lake at Sedgefield. When healthy, Brooks remains a force in major championships.

Collin Morikawa (25-1)

Morikawa missed the cut in his last start at Quail Hollow and also in the team event, the Zurich Classic of New Orleans. Two weeks before that, he finished 10th at The Masters. I feel like the time away will be good for him to regroup and focus on capturing his second PGA Championship. While he does not drive the ball like some of the true bombers, he does average nearly 300 yards off the tee and also gets his distance more so with carry than with run-out, which I believe is important this week with the moist, softer conditions. He also happens to be third on Tour in Driving Accuracy. If he can find himself in the short grass all week, he will have found his wheelhouse. Over the last 36 rounds, he ranks fifth in Hole Proximity from 175-200 yards and 23rd from 200-yards or greater. He’s third in SG Approach and fifth in SG Ball Striking. Morikawa has finished as high as sixth at East Lake and took fourth at the 2021 U.S. Open at Torrey Pines. He won at Muirfield Village when they played the Workday there in 2020. If he is hitting fairways and greens, he’s going to be in the mix. Over the last eight tournaments, for both the PGA and DP World Tours, Morikawa is 18th in this field for SG Tee to Green.

Viktor Hovland (30-1)

Cameron Young

10 2023 PGA Championship best bets, according to a longtime pro caddie 

Like Morikawa, Hovland has cooled off in his past couple of starts since finishing seventh at the Masters but his driving and ball striking are so good, it makes him an excellent fit for this golf course. He is fourth on Tour in Total Driving. He is 21st in SG Approach over the last 36 rounds, 12th in Ball Striking, and ranks 11th on Par 4’s measuring between 450-500 yards. He’s finished fifth at East Lake, fourth at the Wyndham, and has two Top 15 finishes at the Rocket Mortgage Classic. He took 13th at Winged Foot in 2020 and finished runner-up at the Farmers Insurance Open in 2021. Over the last eight rounds on both the PGA and DP World Tours, Hovland is second in this field for SG Off the Tee. I feel like this week, he is going to contend in a major once again.

Rickie Fowler (100-1)

When I started researching this golf course about a month ago and who might be a good fit, I was surprised to see how well Rickie ranks statistically. He is 31 st  on Tour in Total Driving. Over the last 36 rounds, he ranks 17 th  for SG Ball Striking, seventh for SG Approach, 13 th  in Bogey Avoidance, 22 nd  in Scrambling, 39 th  in Hole Proximity from 175-200, and 39 th  in SG Putting (Bent grass). He’s finished runner-up twice at the Memorial, was eighth at Aronimink in 2018, and it would be incredible to see Rickie win a major. With the way he’s playing, I think he has a good shot — better than 100-1 anyway.

Russell Henley (125-1)

Here is another guy who I believe has a better shot than what his price is indicating. Henley is not a long hitter but is No.1 on Tour in Driving Accuracy. Augusta National caters to longer hitters but Henley just finished fourth there last month. Like Morikawa, if he is hitting from the short grass all week, he could make a run again for the second straight time in a major. It wasn’t only The Masters either as Henley has three Top 20’s and a Top 5 finish in his last four starts. Over the last eight events on both the PGA and DP World Tours, Henley ranks ninth in this field for SG Approach, 18 th  for SG Around the Green, fifth for SG Tee to Green, second in SG Putting, and second for SG Total. Pretty impressive.

Gary Woodland reacts on green at 2023 Masters

Gary Woodland (150-1)

In finishing 14th at the Wells Fargo three weeks ago, Woodland led the field in SG Tee to Green. The week prior, he was 3rd tee to green in the field in Mexico. Woodland has been playing very well and with his length off the tee and long iron game, he makes a great deal of sense for this golf course. The problem is the short game as he ranks 131 st  in Scrambling and 109 th  in SG Putting (Bent grass) over the last 36 rounds. Still, 150-1 seems too long of a price for me. He finished eighth at Bethpage in 2019, 12 th  at Aronimink in 2018, and has two Top 10 finishes at the Memorial.

Full Tournament Head to Head Matchups (26-19-3 YTD)

Jason Day (-115) over Dustin Johnson

Collin Morikawa (-140) over Max Homa

Rickie Fowler (-120) over Tom Kim

Russell Henley (-125) over Mito Pereira

Taylor Moore (-130) over Tom Hoge

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2023 pga championship odds, tournament history and picks to win at oak hill, share this article.

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It’s time for the second men’s major championship of 2023 as the best players in the world have made their way to Rochester, New York, for the PGA Championship at Oak Hill Country Club.

Justin Thomas is the defending champion, but Jon Rahm enters the week as one of the betting favorites (+750). The Spaniard has amassed four wins already this season including the Masters in April — his second major championship victory.

However, it’s world No. 2 Scottie Scheffler on top of the betting odds list, sitting at +700. Scheffler tied for fifth at last week’s AT&T Byron Nelson and grabbed a T-10 finish at Augusta National.

At double Scheffler’s odds is Rory McIlroy (+1400), who is going through a bit of a funk. In his last three stroke-play events, the Northern Irishman has missed the cut at the Players and Masters, and tied for 47th at the Wells Fargo Championship.

Golf course

Oak Hill Country Club | Par 70 | 7,394 yards

Oak Hill Country Club

An aerial view of Oak Hill Country Club in Rochester, New York. (Gabe Gudgel/Golfweek)

Championship history

Combined PGA Championship/U.S. Open course history going back to 2017. -Includes average finish position and Strokes Gained per round in each category. Players are sorted by SG: Total. -Why include U.S. Open courses? PGA Championship layouts have usually been "U.S. Open-lite"… pic.twitter.com/hKThhf7MFl — Ron Klos (@PGASplits101) May 15, 2023

Betting preview

Viktor hovland (35/1).

predictions for pga tour championship

Viktor Hovland of Norway looks on on the eighth hole during a practice round prior to the 2023 PGA Championship at Oak Hill Country Club on May 15, 2023 in Rochester, New York. (Photo by Warren Little/Getty Images)

Hovland has found his footing in majors, tying for seventh at the Masters and for fourth at the 2022 Open. He’s 3/3 making the weekend at PGA Championships with his best finish coming in 2020 (T-30).

The Norwegian’s game should fit Oak Hill nicely. He drives the ball on a string — 29th in fairways in regulation — and ranks second in rough proximity when he misses the short grass.

The tightly mowed chipping areas around several of the greens make me a bit nervous — Hovland is 169th in Strokes Gained: Around the Green — but his ball striking is too good to ignore — sixth in SG: Off the Tee and 18th in SG: Approach.

Hovland’s 35/1 number is great value given the talent level.

Dustin Johnson (35/1)

predictions for pga tour championship

Dustin Johnson stands on the podium holding the trophy during the final round of a LIV Golf event at Cedar Ridge Country Club. (Photo: Joey Johnson-USA TODAY Sports)

It worked out well the last time we picked a LIV Golf member off a win entering a major championship — Brooks Koepka tied for second at the Masters.

Johnson won LIV Golf Tulsa last week in a playoff over Branden Grace and Cam Smith.

He missed the cut at the PGA Championship last year but Oak Hill’s setup should favor Johnson’s game more than Southern Hills did. Johnson finished solo second at the ’19 PGA and T-2 at the ’20 edition.

A chance to grab a player of Johnson’s caliber at 35/1 is tough to turn down.

Cameron Young (35/1)

predictions for pga tour championship

Cameron Young watches his tee shot from the 18th tee during the third round of The Players Championship golf tournament. (Photo: David Yeazell-USA TODAY Sports)

When Young has made the weekend at a major championship, he’s been in the mix Sunday afternoon. He finished runner-up to Cam Smith at the Open at St. Andrews, narrowly missed a playoff at the ’22 PGA Championship and tied for seventh at the Masters last month.

Oak Hill is a big ballpark and should fit Young’s game to perfection. Plus, having Paul Tesori on the bag should come in handy during major championship weeks.

Rory McIlroy (14/1)

predictions for pga tour championship

Rory McIlroy plays his shot from the ninth tee during a practice round of the PGA Championship golf tournament at Oak Hill Country Club. (Photo: Aaron Doster-USA TODAY Sports)

McIlroy has struggled of late, missing the cut at the Players and Masters, then failing to crack the top 40 at the Wells Fargo Championship.

So, why is he on this list?

Well, for starters, +1400 for McIlroy is a must-bet number. Secondly, he’s one of the most talented players in the sport at a golf course that should fit his game perfectly.

Lastly, it’s a bit of a home game for the 2012 and 2014 PGA champ as his wife, Erica, is from the Rochester area. McIlroy has spent some time here over the years.

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2023 players championship prop bet picks and pga tour predictions, share this article.

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For the 2nd week in a row, the biggest names in golf will be competing at a premier course in Florida. The 2023 Players Championship is taking place at TPC Sawgrass in Ponte Vedra Beach. The 1st round tees off on Thursday.

Below, we search for the best value prop bets among the 2023 Players Championship odds and make our PGA Tour picks and predictions .

After finishing 2nd at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, Rory McIlroy comes into this week as the betting favorite to win his 2nd Players Championship. Jon Rahm , the No. 1 player in the world, is right behind McIlroy, followed by Scottie Scheffler , Justin Thomas and Patrick Cantlay . Defending champion Cameron Smith is with LIV Golf and not in the field.

TPC Sawgrass features twisting and winding fairways, which are narrow and difficult to hit on several holes. Players are required to shape shots around the contours of the course, with greens in regulation being a strong marker of success here. Sawgrass is a par 72 that will play at 7,275 yards.

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Players Championship – Top-5 picks

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook ; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Wednesday at 1:04 a.m. ET.

Sungjae Im (+650)

It’s easy to like Im this week. He’s great off the tee (21st in strokes gained) and a wizard around the greens with his wedges, which will help him save par when he does miss his target. He has 2 top-6 finishes in his last 5 starts this season and comes into this tournament in good form.

Justin Thomas (+450)

Thomas has been better than just about every player at TPC Sawgrass the last 2 years, winning it in 2021 and finishing tied for 33rd last year. He hasn’t finished outside the top 25 in his last 5 starts this season, so he’s been playing very well recently. He should be among the top 3 favorites this week.

Rory McIlroy (+220)

McIlroy cashed our top-5 ticket last week so we’ll run it back with him again at Sawgrass. He was a winner here in 2019 and has 3 other top-10 finishes at this tournament. He’s coming off a 2nd-place finish at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, too.

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Players Championship – Top-10 picks

Max homa (+210).

Homa tied for 13th last year after missing the cut in his Players debut in 2021, but he’s a much better player now than he was 2 years ago. In his last 5 starts, he has a win, a 2nd-place finish and a 3rd on his resume, playing as well as anyone in the world.

Jason Day (+270)

Day has very quietly been as consistent as anyone in the last couple of months. He’s finished in the top 10 in each of his last 4 starts and top 20 in each of his last 6 tournaments. He missed the cut here last year, but that was an outlier after winning in 2016 and posting 2 other top 10s at Sawgrass since.

Viktor Hovland (+260)

Hovland limped his way to a T-10 at Bay Hill last week, shooting a final-round 75 after once holding the lead on Saturday. He has 7 top-25s in his 8 starts this season and tied for 9th in this event last year. Despite Sunday’s collapse, Hovland is playing well at the moment.

Other T10 contenders ( in order from longest odds to shortest ):

  • Rickie Fowler (+500)
  • Shane Lowry (+425)
  • Keegan Bradley (+400)

Players Championship – Top-20 picks

Jason day (+135).

For all the reasons listed above, I’d also consider taking Day to come in the top 20. He has 6 straight top-20 finishes this season and looks like the player he was in his prime.

Adam Scott (+330)

Scott at +330 for a top-20? Don’t mind if I do. In his last 10 appearances at the Players Championship, he’s come in the top 20 six times. He’s 17-for-20 in cuts made here and won back in 2004, finishing worse than 48th only once since 2012 – and that was last year when the conditions were brutal for those on the wrong side of the draw.

Will Zalatoris (+150)

Zalatoris disappointed last week at Bay Hill but I’m running it back with him. In his first 2 starts at the Players Championship the last 2 years, he finished 21st and 26th, so he’s been on the cusp of a top-20. It’s been an up-and-down season so far but he’s worth a bet at +150 on a course that rewards great ball striking.

Other T20 contenders ( in order from longest odds to shortest ):

  • Joel Dahmen (+550)
  • Justin Thomas (+110)
  • Max Homa (+110)

Players Championship – Matchups

Suggested play is golfer in bold .

Jason Day (-120) vs. Tom Kim (+100)

This is a bet on course history/experience and recent form. Day has a big edge in both, with this being Kim’s Players Championship debut. You’re paying up a little bit with a -120 line, but Day is worth it.

Rory McIlroy (+100) vs. Jon Rahm (-120)

McIlroy is the favorite to win the tournament at +900, but Rahm is the favorite to win head-to-head? Give me McIlroy at even money to beat Rahm, who has struggled a bit on Bermuda greens and has just 2 finishes inside the top 50 here.

Max Homa (-120) vs. Xander Schauffele (+100)

Schauffele tied for 2nd in 2018, but hasn’t made the cut in his 3 tries since. Homa is trending upwards and playing the best golf of his life, which is why it makes sense for him to be the favorite. I’ll take Homa at -120.

Players Championship – Top American

Justin thomas (+1200).

Thomas is a safer pick given his track record at TPC Sawgrass. He’s tied with Homa for the 3rd-best odds to be the top American, behind Scheffler and Cantlay. I love his chances to not only be the highest American on the leaderboard, but potentially win the whole thing.

Players Championship – 1st-round leader

Sungjae im (+4000).

Im ranks 4th on tour in 1st-round scoring average, which is a good place to start when searching for this bet. He’s also 4th in par-5 scoring average so he should be able to take advantage of the par 5s on Thursday to get off to a great start.

Cameron Young (+4000)

Young can run hot and cold, oftentimes because of his putter. He’s as good a ball striker as anyone in the world, but if his putter doesn’t heat up, he struggles to go low. This is a week where I think he could put up a low number on Thursday, even if it means he struggles to stay in contention on Sunday.

More expert prop bet predictions

Group e winner: rickie fowler (+300).

Fowler is the favorite in this group over Keith Mitchell (+320), Sahith Theegala (+330), Si-Woo Kim (+350) and Sam Burns (+380). Mitchell would be the player I’m most worried about in this group, but Fowler is a past winner here and is playing well right now.

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2024 Masters Tournament odds, picks, Fantasy golf power rankings: PGA Tour predictions and best bets for this week's major from golf expert

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The highlight of the golf season every year takes place in April as the Masters Tournament is among the most anticipated sporting events on the calendar. The motto "a tradition unlike any other" coined by CBS' Jim Nantz most certainly rings true for this event. A total of 88 players (plus a potential addition from the Valero Texas Open) will compete for a purse of $18 million, with the winner receiving $3.24 million, a famous green jacket, major exemptions, and a spot in The Masters for life. Augusta National plays as a par-72 at 7,555 yards with tree-lined fairways, uneven lies, and lightening fast greens.

World No. 1 and 2022 champion Scottie Scheffler is the pre-tournament favorite at +400 odds, followed defending champion Jon Rahm and Rory McIlroy (+1200), Xander Schauffele (+1800), with Jordan Spieth and Brooks Koepka at +2000.

With the best field in golf teeing it up for 2024's first major tournament, who can you trust for your Masters Fantasy golf picks? Before you set your 2024 Masters golf lineups or make any PGA Tour bets, you NEED to see the Fantasy golf rankings from Fantasy expert Eric Cohen .

Cohen is an avid golf bettor who correctly predicted the pre-tournament outright winner of the 2024 Players Championship (Scottie Scheffler +550), 2023 Rocket Mortgage Classic (Rickie Fowler +1400), 2023 PGA Championship (Brooks Koepka +2000), 2023 Honda Classic (Chris Kirk +3500), 2022 Open Championship (Cameron Smith +2200), 2022 U.S. Open (Matt Fitzpatrick +2500), and 2022 Phoenix Open (Scottie Scheffler's first career victory at +2800). 

Eric is a contributor to SportsLine's YouTube shows including "Early Edge" and is the host of "The Early Wedge" golf show (live on Monday, 4/8 at 7:00 p.m. ET).  Anyone who has followed Cohen's predictions has made positive gains on their golf picks.

Now, Cohen has studied the field set to play at Augusta National and revealed his Masters Fantasy golf rankings. 

We can tell you he is backing Xander Schauffele at +1800 as his top outright bet. "He has top ten finishes in six of eight events this season and has gained off the tee and on approach in all but one tournament. In six appearances here, he has finishes of T2 (to Tiger Woods in 2019), T3, and T10."

On the other hand, Cohen is fading the co-second favorite Rory McIlroy at +1200 outside the top five. "McIlroy has finished in the top ten in seven of his last eight majors, but can't get over the hump at Augusta after blowing a massive lead in 2011. Looking to complete the career grand slam, it's almost like watching Phil Mickelson for years at the U.S. Open. So close, yet so far away."

Cohen also is backing several underdogs in his 2024 Masters Fantasy golf picks, including a HUGE 125-1 longshot who thrives at Augusta National ! If this player can pull off a stunning result, it would bring a HUGE payoff and be a valuable piece for Masters Fantasy golf lineups. You ABSOLUTELY need to see who it is before locking in any fantasy golf picks.

Who wins The Masters Tournament ,  a nd which triple-digit longshot could bring a HUGE payout and be the difference for your Fantasy golf picks? Join SportsLine now to get Eric Cohen's Fantasy golf rankings and picks for The Masters, all from the Fantasy expert who has delivered a positive ROI with his golf picks !

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Power Rankings: Who can contend at Augusta National?

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Despite Monday’s total solar eclipse that was experienced by tens of millions of people across North America, a rare celestial event isn’t required to see stars in the daytime at Augusta National Golf Club. That’s because it’s time for the Masters.

A field of 89 has assembled for the 88th edition of the first major of the year. What it faces, what it’s chasing and an early peek at the weather are detailed below.

Unlike the Masters that is contested annually, the next total eclipse in North America won’t occur until August of 2044, and it’ll be viewed best primarily in Canada. To put some perspective on how long you’ll have to wait for that, five-time Masters champion Tiger Woods will be 68 years of age when it happens.

A 48-year-old Woods is committed to the Masters this week. He’s in his 26th appearance. If he could apportion even one week’s worth of that experience to any of the 20 debutants alongside, there wouldn’t be a rejection among the lot. Each knows that Fuzzy Zoeller is the most recent first-timer to win the green jacket, and that was when Woods was 3 in 1979. The only other two who have done it are Horton Smith and Gene Sarazen in the first two editions in 1934 and 1935, respectively.

Course history aside, the entire field will be playing the latest iteration of the par-5 second hole for the first time. With an increase of 10 yards, the dogleg left now tips at 585 yards, thus pushing the overall course length to 7,555 yards. It’s the longest Augusta National ever has read on the scorecard.

The major modification in advance of last year’s tournament was a new tee on the par-5 13th hole that extended it by 35 yards. It’s only one spin of a sample size, but the hole transitioned from the second-hardest par 5 to the hardest, yet its scoring average of 4.736 was lower than it was in in 2022. That’s due in part to the fact that the course was a stroke easier last year overall. The field averaged 72.960.

Score has relevance in the history books and in real-time analysis, but all that matters ultimately is the trophy.

As always on this track, course management in the context of the position on approach is at a premium, and that includes at the cost of distance off the tee. Although Augusta National can play open for the longest hitters, it’s a second-shot track that demands a, well, master's degree in geometry. It’s all about the angles.

A unique cut of low 50 and ties will occur at the conclusion of 36 holes. All who survive will play to the finish line. Among the boatload of benefits, the champion will received a lifetime exemption into the tournament, exemptions into all of the other majors through 2028, a PGA TOUR membership exemption through 2029 and 750 FedExCup points.

When he slips on the newest addition to his wardrobe on Sunday, the winner is promised to have enjoyed a wonderful walk thanks to fantastic weather conditions with a daytime high eclipsing 80 degrees. However, the tournament won’t start out that way as Thursday’s forecast is dicey. Rain, the probability of storms and gusty winds all are lined up. Precipitation will have ceased by Friday, but breezes will stick around. Saturday’s third round will be serene by comparison and probably the best of the bunch as the temperature will climb only into the mid-70s.

NOTE: ShotLink is not utilized for this tournament.

ROB BOLTON’S SCHEDULE

MONDAY: Power Rankings TUESDAY*: Sleepers WEDNESDAY: Golfbet Insider FRIDAY: Medical Extensions SUNDAY: Points and Payouts; Qualifiers; Reshuffle

*Rob is a member of the panel for PGATOUR.COM’s Expert Picks for PGA TOUR Fantasy Golf, which also publishes on Tuesday.

Rob Bolton is a Golfbet columnist for the PGA TOUR. The Chicagoland native has been playing fantasy golf since 1994, so he was just waiting for the Internet to catch up with him. Follow Rob Bolton on Twitter .

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    2023 Tour Championship Predictions for PGA Last week's BMW Championship was a perfect demonstration of these last few tournaments of the year being all about the world's top-ranked golfers.

  12. PGA Tour Championship Picks, 2023 Predictions, Props, Payout & Odds

    In terms of our PGA Tour Championship picks, Cantlay to finish top five has +180 odds at DraftKings Sportsbook, so a $10 bet profits $18 as long as he indeed finishes within the top five golfers ...

  13. PGA Championship betting guide: 13 picks our expert loves

    The 105 th PGA Championship will take place at Oak Hill Country Club in Rochester, NY., the host course to six major championships since it opened for play in 1926. Oak Hill is a Donald Ross ...

  14. Who will win the PGA Championship in 2023? Odds, betting favorites

    PGA Championship value picks for top-10 finish, SuperDraft & DFS lineups ... Previous 2 players to win on the PGA Tour by 4+ shots leading in those 3 stats were Francesco Molinari in 2018 and ...

  15. 2024 Players Championship odds, picks and PGA Tour predictions

    Below, we look at the 2024 Players Championship odds and make our PGA Tour picks and predictions. Scheffler is the odds-on favorite to win again this week, coming in at +550. The next-closest player is Rory McIlroy, who won here in 2019, with odds of +1400. Everyone else in the field is at least +2000 to win the Players this week.

  16. 2023 PGA Championship odds, tournament history, expert picks to win

    It's time for the second men's major championship of 2023 as the best players in the world have made their way to Rochester, New York, for the PGA Championship at Oak Hill Country Club. Justin Thomas is the defending champion, but Jon Rahm enters the week as one of the betting favorites (+750). The Spaniard has amassed four wins already ...

  17. THE PLAYERS Championship expert picks and predictions with our PGA Pro

    THE PLAYERS Championship past winners betting trends When it comes to handicapping THE PLAYERS, for most of this conversation I will be referencing the four March editions (2019-2023).

  18. Valero Championship expert picks and predictions with our PGA Pro's

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  19. Expert Picks: TOUR Championship

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  20. 2023 Players Championship prop bet picks and PGA Tour predictions

    Below, we search for the best value prop bets among the 2023 Players Championship odds and make our PGA Tour picks and predictions. After finishing 2nd at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, Rory McIlroy comes into this week as the betting favorite to win his 2nd Players Championship. Jon Rahm, the No. 1 player in the world, is right behind McIlroy ...

  21. Expert Picks: THE PLAYERS Championship

    With a new season comes a new evolution for PGA TOUR Expert Picks. Fans of PGA TOUR betting can now see tips and picks for specific markets that the Golfbet team will be riding with each week. The ...

  22. 2024 Masters Tournament odds, picks, Fantasy golf power rankings: PGA

    Cohen is an avid golf bettor who correctly predicted the pre-tournament outright winner of the 2024 Players Championship (Scottie Scheffler +550), 2023 Rocket Mortgage Classic (Rickie Fowler +1400), 2023 PGA Championship (Brooks Koepka +2000), 2023 Honda Classic (Chris Kirk +3500), 2022 Open Championship (Cameron Smith +2200), 2022 U.S. Open (Matt Fitzpatrick +2500), and 2022 Phoenix Open ...

  23. Expert Picks: The Open Championship

    Expert Picks. See who our experts think will claim the final major championship of the year. A. ... PGA TOUR, PGA TOUR Champions, and the Swinging Golfer design are registered trademarks. The Korn ...

  24. Power Rankings: Who can contend at Augusta National?

    The major modification in advance of last year's tournament was a new tee on the par-5 13th hole that extended it by 35 yards. It's only one spin of a sample size, but the hole transitioned ...