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Tour Championship odds, expert picks, sleepers: Expect Rory McIlroy to shine at East Lake again

OLYMPIA FIELDS, IL - PGA golfer Rory McIlroy plays his tee shot on the 9th hole during the final round of the BMW Championship Fed Ex Cup Playoffs on August 20th, 2023, at Olympia Fields Country Club in Olympia Fields, Illinois. (Photo by Brian Spurlock/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

The top 30 players in the final FedEx Cup rankings are headed to Atlanta for the Tour Championship at East Lake Country Club. Watching Tyrrell Hatton and Jordan Spieth wrestle with not being in control of their destiny while staying in the top 30 of the FedEx Cup standings on Sunday of the BMW Championship made for some great dramatic television.

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East Lake Country Club has been the official home of the Tour Championship since 2004 and is a Donald Ross design that has been updated twice by Rees Jones, making it stand out from other Ross designs. The Par 70 layout measures over 7,350 yards and features tight fairways and fast greens. Last year it played easier than it had in years due to soft conditions. This year the temperatures will be into the high 90s throughout, with rain only expected on Sunday.

Scottie Scheffler comes into the Tour Championship in first place in the standings despite being in the middle of one of the coldest streaks of putting from a top-class player I can remember. He starts the tournament with a 2-shot lead on his next closest competitor, Viktor Hovland, and he will need that and more to hold off the field if he is going to putt the way he has all season. Scheffler struck the ball so purely from tee to green in 2022-2023 that he can be mentioned in the same breath as Tiger Woods during his historic run in 2000.

If Scottie Scheffler hits 62 or more greens in regulation this week, he will be the first player to finish a PGA Tour season with a GIR percentage of 75% or higher since Tiger Woods in 2000. — Justin Ray (@JustinRayGolf) August 21, 2023

Tournament winner (strokes added)

Tournament winner bets are tricky with how the Tour Championship is set up, but I think there is some value to be had in some of the bets. Here are the starting positions for each golfer this week and how the tournament works.

Viktor Hovland +500 won the BMW Championship with an amazing course record 61 on Sunday while shooting a 28 on the back 9. His putter was on fire all day and he managed to avoid the big mistakes he made the week before. Hovland starts the week only two strokes back from Scheffler and looks to be in complete control of his game. We cashed a decent ticket with him last week at +1600 and I don’t mind backing him again this week at +500 with a smaller bet.

Max Homa +3500 had a very interesting week at the BMW Championship. He had the stress of a fan helping to cause a major mistake and he also went low with a 62 to set him up to contend on the weekend. I don’t know if his accuracy issues will be a problem this week as he usually hits less than 60 percent of his fairways and driving accuracy is a key statistic each year at East Lake, but he did finish T5 here last year and these are good odds for a player in good form.

Tournament winner (no bonus strokes)

Rory McIlroy +550 has claimed the FedEx Cup title three times and looks poised to push for his fourth and become the first back-to-back winner as he tries to defend his title this year. My model puts him neck and neck with Scheffler by Sunday, even though Scheffler has a three-stroke lead on him before they even tee off this week. McIlroy has overcome five and six-stroke advantages the two times he has won since this tournament format was implemented in 2019. It did take a bit of a meltdown from Scheffler on Sunday in 2022 for him to win.

Jon Rahm +1000 hasn’t won a FedEx Cup Playoff yet. He has a share of the low gross alongside Kevin Na in 2021.

Top ten bet

Xander Schauffele -115 will start outside of the top 10 this week by 1 stroke, but has had an incredible record at East Lake Country Club, gaining over 32 strokes in his career. I don’t mind this number when looking for Xander to push for a top-10 finish.

Scottie Scheffler $13,400 gained more than 14 strokes from tee to green at the BMW Championship, but lost due to a faulty putter and an unbelievable round from Hovland on Sunday. Since the Arnold Palmer Invitational in March, he has gained more than 9 strokes from tee to green in every tournament he has played, except the St. Jude Championship. Scheffler and Rory are tough to fit into lineups this week, but you are going to have to pick one.

Rory McIlroy $13,000 has won the FedEx Cup Playoffs three times and has overcome large deficits in starting strokes in his last two Tour Championship wins. He is tied with Scheffler in my projections and rankings and we are getting him at a $400 discount. I’m leaning toward playing Rory more this week unless I see some crazy ownership projection on Wednesday.

Viktor Hovland $12,500 See above.

Max Homa $10,900 See above.

Patrick Cantlay $10,800 is a $2,600 discount from Scheffler and his accuracy off the tee and tee-to-green statistics put him right behind Hovland over his last 36 rounds, which places him as the fourth-best play this week. He lost in a playoff two weeks ago and played well at the BMW Championship despite having a really poor week on the greens. Xander will suck up so much ownership this week that Cantlay should be a nice pivot, even if you have to dip down into the 6K range at some point.

Xander Schauffele $10,500 See above.

Tommy Fleetwood $8,800 dropped off the pace a little last week and that gets us a nice $900 price drop for a course that might fit his game just a little better. Too many people will consider playing Sungjae Im in this price range, and Fleetwood would be a nice option for a pivot.

Sungjae Im $8,500 is coming off of back-to-back top seven finishes in the playoffs and gained strokes across the board last week. He finished T2 here last year in softer conditions and seems to enjoy playing in Florida and Georgia. I’m a big fan of Im and wouldn’t be surprised if he kept up his solid play this week. This price range will be key this week.

Russell Henley $8,300 has three straight top-ten finishes with gains across the board in every major statistical category, except a slight loss in putting at the BMW Championship. The Georgia native has to be excited to tee it up in the Tour Championship in Atlanta, finally.

Corey Conners $7,900 is getting hot at the right time and is coming off a nice T10 at the BMW Championship, where he gained 5.6 strokes tee to green. Conners hasn’t fared well at the Tour Championship, but he’s in such good form from tee to green that I don’t mind putting him in my lineups.

Tom Kim $7,900 looks healthy after injuring his ankle and is a nice statistical fit for East Lake Country Club. Kim has been riding a hot putter for the last few weeks which could give him the edge in this price range.

Tyrrell Hatton $6,900 finished seventh here in 2020 and has to be thrilled to be back this year after struggling a bit to close out the season. His statistics last week at the BMW Championship look like an outlier regarding his season. He lost almost 6 strokes from tee to green as the pressure of being on the edge of missing the Tour Championship may have gotten to him. I’m willing to give him a chance as it could be a freeroll for him after backing into the top 30.

Jordan Spieth $6,700 has struggled on approach the last two weeks, but this seems like a bit of a miss-price. His short game kept him afloat at the St. Jude Championship and may also play a big role this week.

(Photo of Rory McIlory: Brian Spurlock / Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

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Dennis Esser is a contributor to The Athletic, covering golf through the lens of sports betting and fantasy sports. A resident of New Jersey, Dennis' writing has appeared in numerous fantasy and betting outlets.

The CJ Cup Byron Nelson

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Betting Odds

Tour Championship odds 2022: Scottie Scheffler tops brutal odds board at East Lake

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To the surprise of no one, Scottie Scheffler is a heavy solo favorite to win this week's Tour Championship at East Lake. Ranked No. 1 in the FedEx Cup standings after the BMW Championship, Scheffler earned a two-stroke lead over Patrick Cantlay thanks to the season-ending event's "starting strokes" format.

RELATED: PGA Tour 2K23 Tiger Woods Edition set for release in October

Cantlay, the winner of the BMW, will begin the week at eight under, two back of Scheffler. Scheffler is +260 to win on the DraftKings Sportsbook, while Cantlay checks in at +330.

If you're interested in a little more value, Xander Schauffele might be the best you can do at +600. He's at six under to start the week, four back of Scheffler. Will Zalatoris, who won the opening event of the playoffs in Memphis, is 10-1 after withdrawing from the BMW on Saturday. Zalatoris will start three strokes back of Scheffler at East Lake.

Here are the odds for every player, with starting strokes, in the Tour Championship field:

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Tour Championship odds: Scottie Scheffler favored to win fifth title of the season

Scottie Scheffler enters the week in the top spot in the FedEx Cup standings.

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At long last, the final event of the PGA Tour season is finally here. The top 30 in the FedEx Cup standings head to East Lake this week to compete in the Tour Championship , and according to BetMGM odds , Scottie Scheffler is the favorite to take home the crown. Here’s what you need to know.

2022 Tour Championship odds: This week’s favorites

Scottie Scheffler has not registered a win on Tour since his Masters triumph back in April, but with a two-stroke advantage to begin the week, oddsmakers still like his chances to make it win No. 5 on the year, listing him at +200 to win.

BMW Championship winner Patrick Cantlay comes in at No. 2 on the odds board at +350 to win, while Xander Schauffele (+650) and Rory McIlroy (+900) lag behind. Jon Rahm rounds out the top five at +1200.

2022 Tour Championship odds: Long shot of the week

Sahith Theegala has some of the longest odds in the field (+30000) by virtue of beginning the week 10 shots behind the leader, but that doesn’t mean you should count him out. Theegala has 11 rounds of 65 or better on Tour this season, and if he can put a few of those rounds together this week, he might just be able to make up that large gap on the leaderboard.

You can see the top 15 in Tour Championship betting odds as of Tuesday morning below, or head over to BetMGM to see the full list of odds and bets for this week.

2022 Tour Championship odds (favorites)

Scottie Scheffler (+200)

Patrick Cantlay (+350)

Xander Schauffele (+650)

Rory McIlroy (+900)

Jon Rahm (+1200)

Tony Finau (+1800)

Sam Burns (+2200)

Cameron Smith (+2500)

Justin Thomas (+2800)

Sungjae Im (+2800)

Matt Fitzpatrick (+4000)

Cameron Young (+4000)

Jordan Spieth (+5000)

Viktor Hovland (+6600)

Collin Morikawa (+6600)

How to bet on the Tour Championship

Looking to make a (legal!) wager yourself? We teamed with BetMGM, and the online sportsbook is offering a “Risk-Free Bet” up to $1000 promotion. Sign up for an account to get into the action today.

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Zephyr Melton is an assistant editor for GOLF.com where he spends his days blogging, producing and editing. Prior to joining the team at GOLF, he attended the University of Texas followed by stops with the Texas Golf Association, Team USA, the Green Bay Packers and the PGA Tour. He assists on all things instruction and covers amateur and women’s golf. He can be reached at [email protected].

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Kevin kisner odds to win the 2024 at&t byron nelson, share this article.

The AT&T Byron Nelson is slated for May 2-5 at TPC Craig Ranch, and Kevin Kisner is one of the players who will participate.

Wanting to put some money on Kisner in this week’s tournament? Here are some ways to get in on the betting action.

AT&T Byron Nelson details and info

  • Date: May 2-5, 2024
  • Course: TPC Craig Ranch
  • Location: McKinney, TX
  • Previous Winner: Jason Day

How to watch the AT&T Byron Nelson

  • Thursday: Golf Channel
  • Friday: Golf Channel
  • Saturday: CBS, Golf Channel
  • Sunday: CBS, Golf Channel
  • Monday: Golf Channel

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Kisner odds to win the AT&T Byron Nelson

The current odds on Kisner to win the AT&T Byron Nelson are +100000. If you elected to wager $10 on Kisner, you’d wind up with $10,010.00 were he to win.

PGA odds courtesy of BetMGM Sportsbook . Odds updated Thursday at 8:58 AM ET. For a full list of sports betting odds, access USA TODAY Sports Betting Scores Odds Hub .

Kisner odds to finish in the top 5 at the AT&T Byron Nelson

The current odds on Kisner to finish top-five at the AT&T Byron Nelson are +20000. If you elected to wager $10 on Kisner, you’d wind up with $2,010.00 were he to finish that high up the leaderboard.

Kisner odds to finish in the top 10 at the AT&T Byron Nelson

The latest odds on Kisner to finish in the top 10 at the AT&T Byron Nelson are +7000. If you decided to wager $10 on Kisner, you’d end up with $710.00 if he did so.

Other betting markets for Kisner at the AT&T Byron Nelson

Sportsbooks offer many more betting markets for every golf tournament, including choosing who will be in front after the first round, or whether a player makes the cut or misses it. You can also narrow it down to betting on one-on-one matchups or 3-ball matchups (three players grouped together). Simply select who will post the top score on that particular day, and you’re a winner.

Kisner recent performances

Kisner has participated in seven tournaments this season, but he has not earned a finish in the top 10. Kisner has not finished inside the top 20 in his past four tournaments, with an average finish of 70th. Kisner has one top-20 finish in his last three trips to this tournament. His average finishing position over that span is 26th.

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Sleeper Picks: THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson

Sleeper Picks

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S.H. Kim (+10000) … Although April tilted toward rewarding the shortest odds on the board among winners and thus a diversion from the theme that opened the season, he would not be that at THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson. This also would require the 25-year-old from South Korea to sharpen his irons. However, he’s twice a winner abroad, so a victory this week would be unprecedented for him only on the PGA TOUR. He debuted at TPC Craig Ranch last year where a third-round 74 spoiled an otherwise strong performance, so there’s an opportunity for redemption. He recently finished T14 in the Hill Country of the Valero Texas Open. But again, holding his own on approach is the key. He’s 27th on TOUR in Strokes Gained: Putting and sixth in converting greens in regulation into par breakers, so he’s near the top of the class as it concerns the second component of the shootout.

How to bet on the Favorites at THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson

Thomas Detry (+700) … While a T8 alongside Robert MacIntyre at the Zurich Classic of New Orleans is valuable, the lefty from Scotland arguably needed it more than the Belgian. Detry has enjoyed a more lucrative experience as a sophomore, already having matched his rookie season’s total of three top 10s. The first two of 2024 were top fives, thus the reach for another in his first appearance at TPC Craig Ranch. He comps a little like S.H. Kim above except that Detry’s mid-range game is stronger all the while still slotting 18th in Strokes Gained: Putting and 10th in converting GIR into par breakers. So, if compelled, swap. Detry is +4000 as the outright and Kim is +1800 for a top five.

Peter Kuest (+650) … He’s at it again and it’s come full circle. The 25-year-old parlayed surviving a 5-for-1 playoff in the four-spotter at the Valero Texas Open into a T10. That top 10 paid forward into a T9 at the Corales Puntacana Championship, which spilled into a top-10 exemption at TPC Craig Ranch … which is where he launched his surge a year ago with a T14. He led last year’s field in total driving and Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee, and he also ranked T15 in greens in regulation and 14th in Strokes Gained: Putting. Oh, he walked it off with a nine-birdie 63.

Doug Ghim (+275) … Sometimes the absence of inspiring form is exactly what we want. This is one of those times. Since connecting five top 20s to conclude the astronomical winter, he’s just 2-for-4 and without a top 40 in individual competition. File that under small sample size. The product of the University of Texas has a pair of top 20s in this tournament, including a T19 at TPC Craig Ranch last year immediately following a similar skid. He remains among the strongest from tee to green and he doesn’t waste shots with the putter.

Nico Echavarria (+225) … There are many candidates for this finish, but he’s remained the longest among the subset since the odds were released. (Others will appear in Wednesday’s Golfbet Insider.) He and Max Greyserman collaborated for a T4 at the Zurich Classic, but Echavarria has flashed form repeatedly in individual competition in his second season with a PGA TOUR card. All five of his top 60s among seven paydays are top 25s, including a T14 two weeks ago at the Corales Puntacana. Currently inside the top 50 on TOUR in greens in regulation, Strokes Gained: Putting, converting GIR in par breakers, par-3 scoring and par-4 scoring.

Odds were sourced at BetMGM.

For resources to overcome a gambling problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER today.

Rob Bolton is a Golfbet columnist for the PGA TOUR. The Chicagoland native has been playing fantasy golf since 1994, so he was just waiting for the Internet to catch up with him. Follow Rob Bolton on Twitter .

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25 - 28 Apr 2024

ISPS HANDA - CHAMPIONSHIP

Taiheiyo Club, Gotemba Course, Gotemba, Japan

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Hideki Matsuyama of Japan plays his shot from the fourth tee during the final round of the AT&T ... [+] Byron Nelson at TPC Craig Ranch on May 14, 2023 in McKinney, Texas. (Photo by Tim Heitman/Getty Images)

The PGA Tour returns to stroke play format at The CJ Cup Byron Nelson this week following the team pairing win last week by Rory McIlroy and Shane Lowry in the Zurich Classic . The 156 player field for the Byron Nelson includes just Jordan Spieth (20), Jason Day (22) and Tom Kim (23) from the top 25 players in the world golf rankings after Will Zalatoris (30) withdrew Tuesday after a flare-up in his back.

The top players will attack wide open Zoysia fairways and large bentgrass greens in a birdie-fest and putting contest this week. TPC Craig Ranch is the host course for the fourth time, and the 7,414 yard course now plays to Par 71 with the 12th hole shortened from 547 yards (Par 5) to 493 yards (Par 4). Rowlett Creek runs through the property and crosses 14 of the 18 holes.

TPC Craig Ranch is located in McKinney about 30 miles north of Dallas, where FanDuel ambassador Jordan Spieth lives and enters as the tournament favorite. Close behind is 2023 Byron Nelson champion Jason Day. Longshot K.H. Lee won the other two events held at TPC Craig Ranch.

The field lacks star power as most of the top pros prepare for next week’s Wells Fargo Championship in Charlotte followed by the PGA Championship at Jack Nicklaus-designed Valhalla Golf Club in Louisville.

CJ Cup Byron Nelson Golf Odds And Favorites

Leading favorites and contenders golf odds from FanDuel Sportsbook refresh periodically and are subject to change, including on props and live betting.

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  • +1400: Jordan Spieth
  • +1600: Si Woo Kim
  • +2000: Jason Day (defending champion)
  • +2200: Alex Noren, Min Woo Lee, Adam Scott
  • +2500: Byeong Hun An, Stephen Jaeger
  • +2800: Tom Kim, Sungjae Im, Tom Hoge
  • +3500: Keith Mitchell, Adam Schenk
  • +4000: Mackenzie Hughes, Thomas Detry
  • +5000: Maverick McNealy, K.H. Lee
  • +5500: Mark Hubbard
  • +6000: Seamus Power, Davis Thompson, Beau Hossler
  • +6500: Ben Griffin, Aaron Rai
  • +7000: Doug Ghim
  • +7500: Sam Stevens
  • +8000: Taylor Pendrith, Kevin Yu, Nate Lashley
  • +8000: Justin Lower, C.T. Pan, Chad Kim
  • +9000: Jake Knapp, Ryan Fox, Matti Schmid, Luke List

72 Hole Winning Score (Par 71): Over/Under 260.5

Some key strokes gained stats and performance metrics to consider this week include:

  • SG: Approach and Total (easy scoring conditions)
  • SG: Putting and Off the Tee
  • Birdies or Better Gained
  • Proximity to hole from 200+ yards

Jordan Spieth plays his shot from the 14th tee during the final round of the Byron Nelson tournament ... [+] at TPC Craig Ranch in McKinney, Texas. (Photo by Sam Greenwood/Getty Images)

Tom Hoge leads the field in SG: Approach and No. 2 in SG: Total and No. 13 in SG: Putting over his last 36 rounds. Hoge’s best finish in three starts at TPC Craig’s Ranch is T17 in 2022 when he shot 18-under par. Jordan Spieth and K.H. Lee have the best Strokes Gained stats profiles in 8 rounds at TPC Craig Ranch. Lee is No. 1 in Approach, Total and No. 2 in Putting while Spieth is 4, 2 and 21.

Byeong Hun An ranks No. 1 in this field in Birdies or Better Gained and No. 4 in this field in Opportunities Gained over his last 36 rounds. He’s also No. 3 in Driving Distance Gained and No. 12 in Greens in Regulation Gained. Hun An also ranks top-20 in Proximity to the hole from 175-200 yards and 200+ yards and top-5 inside 125 yards. Byeong Hun An finished T8 in the Arnold Palmer Invitational and T16 in The Masters against stronger field on courses where driving and approach were key stats.

CJ Cup Byron Nelson Golf Picks

Leading golf analysts and contributors picks to win and top finishing position include:

  • Golf Digest - Alex Noren (2), Sungjae Im, Byeong Hun An, Adam Schenk, Thomas Detry, Keith Mitchell,
  • SportingLife: Jordan Spieth, Tom Kim and longshots Sam Stevens, Davis Riley, Nate Lashley and C.T. Pan
  • Golf Bet - Tom Kim, Stephen Jaeger, Si Woo Kim, Mark Hubbard
  • FanDuel - Si Woo Kim, Alex Noren, Tom Hoge, Mackenzie Hughes

Tournament Matchups

Additional golf betting odds from FanDuel and leading online sportsbooks are updated and adjusted througout the tournament along with props and tournament matchups.

  • Sungjae Im (-120) vs. Tom Kim (+100)
  • Byeong Hun An (-115) vs. Min Woo Lee (-105) - Bet Byeong Hun An
  • Tom Hoge (-120) vs. Keith Mitchell (+100)
  • Davis Thompson (-120) vs. Beau Hossler (+100)

How To Watch The CJ Cup Byron Nelson

All times Eastern. Tournament May 2-5

  • Thursday-Friday: 4-7 p.m. (Golf Channel/Peacock)
  • Saturday-Sunday: 1-3 p.m. (Golf Channel/Peacock), 3-6 p.m. (CBS)

Thursday and Friday pairings and tee times .

Featured Groups

Thursday PGA Tour Live on ESPN+

  • 8:23 am, hole #10: Tom Hoge, Brice Garnett, Daniel Berger
  • 8:34 am, hole #10 : Tom Kim, Camilo Villegas, Mackenzie Hughes
  • 8:45 am, hole #10 : Jordan Spieth, Jason Day, Sungjae Im (Marquee)
  • 8:23 am, hole #10 : Jake Knapp, Luke List, Adam Schenk
  • 8:34 am, hole #10 : Stephan Jaeger, Nick Dunlap, Byeong Hun An
  • 8:45 am, hole #10: Adam Scott, Si Woo Kim, K.H. Lee ‘(Marquee)

Featured holes Par 3’s at No. 4, 7 and 17 and Par 4 at No. 14

Check out more golf news , picks and information you can bet on for the CJ Cup Byron Nelson and weekly golf events. The PGA Tour and leading U.S. golf courses are leading the way in technology and sustainability . The top online sportsbooks are leading the way in wagering options as betting on golf continues to be most popular with fans firing for more fairways and greens.

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2024 PGA Championship odds, field: Surprising PGA picks from golf model that has won 11 majors

Sportsline's proven model simulated the pga championship 2024 10,000 times and revealed its pga golf picks for valhalla golf club.

odds for the tour championship

Brooks Koepka became just the fourth golfer in PGA Championship history to win the tournament three times over a six-year stretch after emerging victorious last year. He joined Tiger Woods and Jack Nicklaus as the only players to do so since 1930. Koepka now will try to become the first golfer since Woods to win the event back-to-back years when the 2024 PGA Championship tees off from Valhalla Golf Club on Thursday, May 16. Koepka finished 15th the last time the PGA Championship was held at Valhalla Golf Club in 2014 and is 16-1 in the 2024 PGA Championship odds after finishing 45th at the Masters. Should you include Koepka in 2024 PGA Championship bets due to his dominance?

Scottie Scheffler is the 4-1 favorite in the 2024 PGA Championship field after winning his second green jacket and Jon Rahm follows at 9-1 in the latest PGA Championship 2024 odds. Before locking in any 2024 PGA Championship picks of your own, entering PGA DFS lineups on sites like DraftKings or FanDuel, or finalizing PGA Championship props and PGA Championship Pick Six entries, be sure to see the 2024 PGA Championship golf predictions and projected leaderboard from the proven computer model at SportsLine .

Our proprietary model, built by DFS pro Mike McClure, has been red-hot since the PGA Tour resumed in June of 2020. In fact, the model is up almost $10,000 on its best bets since the restart, nailing tournament after tournament.

McClure's model correctly predicted Scottie Scheffler would finish on top of the leaderboard at the 2024 Masters, the Arnold Palmer Invitational, and The Players Championship this season. McClure also included Hideki Matsuyama in his best bets to win the 2024 Genesis Invitational. That bet hit at +9000, and for the entire tournament, McClure's best bets returned nearly $1,000.

The model also predicted Jon Rahm would be victorious at the 2023 Sentry Tournament of Champions and The American Express. At the 2023 Masters, the model was all over Rahm's second career major victory heading into the weekend. Rahm was two strokes off the lead heading into the third round, but the model still projected him as the winner. It was the second straight Masters win for the model, which also nailed Scheffler winning in 2022.

In addition, McClure's best bets included Nick Taylor (70-1) winning the 2023 RBC Canadian Open, Jason Day (17-1) winning outright at the 2023 AT&T Byron Nelson, and Rickie Fowler (14-1) finishing on top of the leaderboard at the 2023 Rocket Mortgage Classic.

This same model has also nailed a whopping 11 majors entering the weekend and hit the Masters three straight years. Anyone who has followed it has seen massive returns.

Now with the PGA Championship 2024 field taking shape, SportsLine simulated the tournament 10,000 times, and the results were surprising. Head to SportsLine now to see the projected leaderboard.

Top 2024 PGA Championship predictions 

One major surprise the model is calling for at the 2024 PGA Championship: Brooks Koepka, a three-time PGA champion and one of the favorites, stumbles and doesn't even crack the top 10. Koepka has five major tournament wins on his resume and a reputation for elevating his level of play in big events. However, his last two major starts haven't gone well as he was 45th at the Masters, which followed a 64th-place finish at last year's Open Championship. He's failed to shoot par in each of his last seven rounds at major tournaments.

After notching three tournament wins in 2023, including last year's PGA Championship, it has been tough sledding for Koepka in 2024. He has no victories, or even top-fives, and across his six starts, he has three times as many finishes outside the top 25 (three) as he has inside the top 10 (one). He played Valhalla at the 2014 PGA Championship and finished in a tie for 15th place, but that placement ranks just eighth out of his 11 career PGA Championship starts.

Another surprise: Bryson DeChambeau, a 30-1 longshot, makes a strong run at the title. He's a target for anyone looking for a huge payday. DeChambeau was the Round 1 leader at this year's Masters after shooting a 65 and was tied for the top spot Saturday morning after Friday's cut. However, DeChambeau tailed off over the final two rounds and finished sixth. DeChambeau showcased his strength with the second-longest average drives at the Masters (316.1 yards) to put himself in positions for birdies.

DeChambeau had eight birdies on Par 4s at the Masters, with only two golfers having more than him over the tournament. DeChambeau finished fourth for the second time over his last three PGA Championships last season and is a proven major winner, taking the 2020 U.S. Open. DeChambeau won three PGA Tour events in 2018 as a younger golfer and hasn't lost much power in his driver. Given his strong all-around showing at the Masters and finishing eighth or better in five of his last 13 major events, the model projects value at 30-1 odds to include DeChambeau in 2024 PGA Championship bets.  See who else to pick here .

How to make 2024 PGA Championship picks

The model is also targeting three other golfers with odds of 25-1 or longer to make a strong run at the title. Anyone who backs these longshots could hit it big. You can only see the model's picks here .

Who will win the 2024 PGA Championship, and which longshots will stun the golfing world? Check out the PGA Championship 2024 odds below and then visit SportsLine to see the projected PGA Championship leaderboard, all from the model that's nailed 11 golf majors, including the last three Masters .

2024 PGA Championship odds, field

Get full 2024 PGA Championship picks, best bets, and predictions here.

Scottie Scheffler 4-1 Jon Rahm 9-1 Rory McIlroy 10-1 Ludvig Aberg 16-1 Brooks Koepka 16-1 Xander Schauffele 18-1 Viktor Hovland 20-1 Patrick Cantlay 20-1 Wyndham Clark 20-1 Cameron Smith 22-1 Joaquin Niemann 22-1 Collin Morikawa 25-1 Sam Burns 25-1 Max Homa 25-1 Matt Fitzpatrick 28-1 Tom Kim 28-1 Jordan Spieth 30-1 Bryson DeChambeau 30-1 Tony Finau 30-1 Dustin Johnson 30-1 Justin Thomas 33-1 Hideki Matsuyama 35-1 Jason Day 35-1 Cameron Young 35-1 Tommy Fleetwood 40-1 Rickie Fowler 45-1 Min Woo Lee 50-1 Sungjae Im 50-1 Shane Lowry 50-1 Tyrrell Hatton 50-1 Brian Harman 55-1 Corey Conners 60-1 Patrick Reed 65-1 Justin Rose 65-1 Russell Henley 65-1 Sahith Theegala 65-1 Keegan Bradley 75-1 Adam Scott 80-1 Talor Gooch 90-1 Gary Woodland 100-1 Kurt Kitayama 100-1 Daniel Berger 100-1 Louis Oosthuizen 125-1 Tiger Woods 125-1 Si Woo Kim 125-1 Keith Mitchell 125-1 Thomas Pieters 125-1 Abraham Ancer 125-1 J.T. Poston 125-1 Sepp Straka 125-1 Mito Pereira 150-1 Harris English 150-1 Phil Mickelson 150-1 Ryan Fox 150-1 Adam Hadwin 150-1 Sergio Garcia 150-1 Seamus Power 175-1 Denny McCarthy 175-1 Robert MacIntyre 175-1 Christiaan Bezuidenhout 175-1 Davis Riley 175-1 Aaron Wise 175-1 Marc Leishman 175-1 Billy Horschel 200-1 Harold Varner III 200-1 Jason Kokrak 200-1 Mackenzie Hughes 225-1 Francisco Molinari 225-1 Joel Dahmen 250-1

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