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Tourism Set to Return to Pre-Pandemic Levels in Some Regions in 2023

• All Regions
• 17 Jan 2023

After stronger than expected recovery in 2022, this year could see international tourist arrivals return to pre-pandemic levels in Europe and the Middle East. Tourists are nonetheless expected to increasingly seek value for money and travel closer to home in response to the challenging economic climate.

Based on UNWTO's forward-looking scenarios for 2023, international tourist arrivals could reach 80% to 95% of pre-pandemic levels this year, depending on the extent of the economic slowdown, the ongoing recovery of travel in Asia and the Pacific and the evolution of the Russian offensive in Ukraine, among other factors.

All regions bouncing back

UNWTO anticipates a strong year for the sector even in the face of diverse challenges including the economic situation and continued geopolitical uncertainty

According to new data UNWTO, more than 900 million tourists travelled internationally in 2022 – double the number recorded in 2021 though still 63% of pre-pandemic levels. Every global region recorded notable increases in international tourist numbers. The Middle East enjoyed the strongest relative increase as arrivals climbed to 83% of pre-pandemic numbers. Europe reached nearly 80% of pre-pandemic levels as it welcomed 585 million arrivals in 2022. Africa and the Americas both recovered about 65% of their pre-pandemic visitors, while Asia and the Pacific reached only 23%, due to stronger pandemic-related restrictions which have started to be removed only in recent months. The first UNWTO World Tourism Barometer of 2023 also analyses performance by region and looks at top performers in 2022 , including several destinations which have already recovered 2019 levels.

International Tourist Arrivals, World and Regions

UNWTO Secretary-General Zurab Pololikashvili said: "A new year brings more reason for optimism for global tourism. UNWTO anticipates a strong year for the sector even in the face of diverse challenges including the economic situation and continued geopolitical uncertainty. Economic factors may influence how people travel in 2023 and UNWTO expects demand for domestic and regional travel to remain strong and help drive the sector's wider recovery."

Chinese tourists set to return

UNWTO foresees the recovery to continue throughout 2023 even as the sector faces up to economic, health and geopolitical challenges . The recent lifting of COVID-19 related travel restrictions in China , the world's largest outbound market in 2019, is a significant step for the recovery of the tourism sector in Asia and the Pacific and worldwide. In the short term, the resumption of travel from China is likely to benefit Asian destinations in particular. However, this will be shaped by the availability and cost of air travel, visa regulations and COVID-19 related restrictions in the destinations.  By mid-January a total of 32 countries had imposed specific travel restrictions related to travel from China, mostly in Asia and Europe.

At the same time, strong demand from the United States , backed by a strong US dollar, will continue to benefit destinations in the region and beyond. Europe will continue to enjoy strong travel flows from the US, partly due to a weaker euro versus the US dollar. 

Notable increases in international tourism receipts have been recorded across most destinations, in several cases higher than their growth in arrivals. This has been supported by the increase in average spending per trip due to longer periods of stay, the willingness by travelers to spend more in their destination and higher travel costs due to inflation. However, economic situation could translate into tourists adopting a more cautious attitude in 2023, with reduced spending, shorter trips and travel closer to home.  

Furthermore, continued uncertainty caused by the Russian aggression against Ukraine and other mounting geopolitical tensions, as well as health challenges related to COVID-19 also represent downside risks and could weigh on tourism's recovery in the months ahead.

The latest UNWTO Confidence Index shows cautious optimism for January-April, higher than the same period in 2022. This optimism is backed by the opening up in Asia and strong spending numbers in 2022 from both traditional and emerging tourism source markets, with France, Germany and Italy as well as Qatar, India and Saudi Arabia all posting strong results.

Related links

• Download the News Release in PDF
• UNWTO World Tourism Barometer | Volume 21 • Issue 1 • January 2023 | EXCERPT
• World Tourism Barometer (PPT version)
• UNWTO Tourism Recovery Tracker

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Future Changes and Challenges for Post-Covid-19 Tourism

• First Online: 29 April 2024

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• Anna Trono 4  

In conformity with the priorities established in the UNWTO’s global guidelines, today more than ever, the recovery of the tourism sector can contribute to the development and implementation of plans that serve the sustainable development objectives laid out in Agenda 2030. The new tourism sector will thus have a responsible vision of the objectives in terms of public health, social inclusion, conservation of biodiversity, climate safeguards, the circular economy, good governance and sustainable finance. The current vulnerability of tourism could thus create the conditions for a recalibration of the world economic structure, contributing to recovery plans on a broader scale. Like all crises, the current one also represents an opportunity, in this case to accelerate the creation of sustainable tourism models. The resilience of this tourism will depend on the sector’s ability to balance the needs of communities and the planet with the socio-economic advantages it generates.

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Trono, A. (2024). Future Changes and Challenges for Post-Covid-19 Tourism. In: Trono, A., Castronuovo, V., Kosmas, P. (eds) Managing Natural and Cultural Heritage for a Durable Tourism. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-52041-9_5

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• SUSTAINABLE TOURISM OBSERVATORIES (INSTO)

International tourism showed robust performance in January-September 2022, with arrivals reaching 63% of pre-pandemic levels in the first nine months of 2022. The results were driven by strong pent-up demand, lifting of travel restrictions of more destinations, as well as improvement of confidence levels.

Read more of the recent world tourism barometer here: UNWTO World Tourism Barometer, Volume 20, Issue 6, November 2022

Asia and the Pacific saw arrivals more than triple (+230%) from January to September 2022 compared to same period last year, reflecting the opening of many destinations in the region, including Japan.

Aside from increasing tourist arrivals, other industry indicators such as air capacity and hotel metrics are showing robust recovery for tourism. Air seat capacity on international routes (measured in available seat-kilometres or ASKs) in January-August reached 62% of 2019 levels, with Europe (78%) and the Americas (76%) posting the strongest results. Meanwhile, according to STR, global hotel occupancy rates reached 66% in September 2022, from 43% in January.

Industry metrics can be viewed collectively in UNWTO’s Tourism Recovery Tracker . The UNWTO Tourism Recovery Tracker is available for free and is a collaborative effort by a group of partners including the International Civil Aviation Organisation (ICAO), ForwardKeys, STR, Sojern, TCI Research and AIRDNA.

In terms of tourist numbers, the year 2022 is expected to close with over 900 million international arrivals, despite growing challenges pointing to a softening of the recovery pace.

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