business travel outlook 2024

2024 Global Business Travel: Projections and Perspectives

(09-28-2023)

The Global Business Travel Association released its predictions with an exciting projection for 2024 of surpassing the global pre-pandemic business level spend to $1.4 trillion. This forecast further extends growth to $1.8 trillion by 2027.

Business travel spend and booking patterns are entering a dynamic environment. The pandemic’s overall influence on the direction of business travel is less important than other drivers including macroeconomic volatility, sustainability initiatives among stakeholders throughout the business travel ecosystem and shifts in workplace trends.

THE GLOBAL PERSPECTIVE The impacts of inflation alongside consumer demand will determine the level of flattening of prices for corporate trips as it potentially fills the gap for the previous explosion of leisure bookings. Accordingly, suppliers will continue to have leverage as they manage their content/availability through dynamic pricing, with fewer reductions as they retain their pricing power.

GLOBAL ECONOMY AND THE IMPACT TO BUSINESS TRAVEL:

• The deceleration of global economic growth (expected to be just 3% over the next five years) will slow down price increases for business travel.
• Energy prices including fuel (both standard aviation kerosene and sustainable available fuel/SAF), as well as supplier energy costs are rising which will impact overall fare fluctuations.

NORTH AMERICAN PRICE PREDICTIONS

AIR: Economy Class fares are expected to rise 2.4% with an average fare of $614 (compared to 2023 average ticket price of $599).

MIDSCALE HOTEL: Midscale Hotel average daily rate change is forecasted to increase by 3.2% to $160 per room night with a 3.3% increase in upscale properties to $247 per room night.

SHIFTS IN CORPORATE FOCUS

• Carbon budgeting and the counting of emissions is gaining traction with more progressive companies signing up to Scope 3 emission cuts and science based targets. This will drive the demand for sustainable aviation fuel, and purposeful travel buying decisions.
• The cost of premium classes of service and upscale hotels are rising at the highest rate due to ongoing leisure travel demand. If this trend continues, it is projected to shift policy parameters to accommodate for a premiumization of corporate travel and related budget alterations.

NEW TRENDS IN TRAVELER’S BUYING DECISIONS

• 82% of travelers reported that business travel is very or moderately worthwhile in achieving their business objectives.
• Rise in blending business and leisure travel. While this was a trending behavior in 2019, today’s business travelers are taking advantage of their destinations to explore and build in a wellness perspective, especially on international travel.

The findings outlined above are the central findings from the latest Annual Global Report and Forecast published by GBTA.

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Reimagining business travel, without all the baggage

Since travel came to a screeching halt in March 2020, many have predicted that business travel might never recover, given the advances of video conferencing and the embrace of work from home policies.

But global business travel spending is expected to surpass 2019 levels this year, according to the Global Business Travel Association’s Business Travel Index released in August — that's two years sooner than GBTA was forecasting the previous year. A Mastercard survey of travel decision-makers , also released in August, found that nine out of 10 believe business travel is still critical for driving growth, and more than half expect to spend more than $1 billion on travel in 2025, up from 11% pre-pandemic.

That’s music to the ears of airlines and convention hotels, but technological advances, changing expectations and new pressures have also altered the business travel landscape in ways that may ease the journey for road warriors and frequent flyers – and the corporate teams who manage their travel. Here are five trends shaping business travel in 2024.

01 'Bleisure' is here to stay

Remote work is here to stay, and some companies have even instituted “work from anywhere” benefits, giving employees the opportunity to stretch out vacations abroad or visits to family. It also means corporate travelers can extend business trips by a few days, giving them a chance to explore more than just the convention hall or hotel amenities. The days of two-day international business trips may soon be in the rear-view mirror, as employees enjoy the perks of flexible office policies. But a distributed workforce can create new challenges when it comes to monitoring spending — a person working from home might have different expenses than a traditional office worker, like buying subscriptions, office furniture and computer equipment, which can make it more difficult for companies to predict and account for spending.

02 Business travel, consumer experience

For companies, combining business and travel is not always smooth sailing — managing expenses and reimbursements can get complicated. And for employees, the ease of paying with a tap or a click in their daily lives is missing from travel and entertainment payments, as anyone who labored over an expense report can attest. That’s why many companies are moving to virtual cards for travel expenses. These cards are created instantly for specific purposes — a business trip, a client dinner at a conference, travel arrangements for a promising recruit — with customized spend controls, such as the amount, time period and type of purchase where the cards can be used, producing detailed data for tracking, reporting and automated reconciliation. They can even be issued directly to mobile wallets, creating contactless travel experiences.

These heightened consumer expectations could also make companies expand the benefits on their commercial and corporate T&E cards — better travel insurance, concierge support, telemedicine offerings and access to airport lounges, for example.

03 AI at your service

Another extension of the “consumerization” of business travel? The AI tools taking hold in the leisure travel sector, including virtual travel agents that can customize itineraries and lock in low fares, are likely to make waves in corporate travel as well. These bots can tailor travel based on T&E policy, budget and employee preferences. And with the cost of business travel rising – CWT’s Global Business Travel Forecast for 2024 shows a 3% rise in average cost per attendee per day for meetings and events, and a 3.6% increase in hotel rates — corporate travel teams can use AI for better price predictions, more proactively managing their budgets. It can also help these teams build more dynamic policies and even adjust spending limits by analyzing past spend on a much more granular level. AI tools can simplify the arduous expense report process for both employees and finance teams by automating the capture and review of repetitive and predictable expenses. Nine in 10 travel decision-makers plan on investing in AI and machine learning to improve processes and personalize travel for their employees, according to the Mastercard survey.

04 Tracking the impact of travel

Many corporations are making concerted efforts to lower their carbon footprint. Nine in 10 travel decision-makers in Mastercard’s survey said they are more focused on tracking environmental, social and governance efforts — greenhouse gas emissions from company travel, for example. Carbon emissions tracking tools that show carbon footprint of business trips and seat selections can drive more environmentally conscious travel decisions. With sustainability at the top of corporate agendas, we can expect companies to seek out ways to help them achieve their sustainability goals. Mastercard’s T&E Consulting Services, for example, helps corporations re-evaluate their T&E policies and procedures, assess supplier performance and improve for the future.  

05 The rise of the chief travel officer

At many organizations, the responsibility for corporate travel is split between human resources, finance, procurement, technology and even security teams. Even if they’re using the same tools and platforms, there’s often a disconnect when it comes to long-term strategy and decision-making. As business travel becomes more automated, larger companies may benefit from a chief travel officer — someone who can work across the organization to streamline processes, discover efficiencies and make the most of these emerging tools, enterprise solutions and corporate card benefits, including travel risk management services, concierge support and telemedicine offerings.

The resurgence of business travel illustrates the enduring value of in-person interactions — the building of relationships, the sparking of innovation, the deepening of trust that comes from sitting across the table or sharing a meal. Technology may have enabled the rise of virtual work, but technology is also making business travel smarter and more seamless than ever before.

This month, the Mastercard Newsroom is exploring how rapidly evolving technology, heightened consumer expectations and economic and societal pressures are changing how we live, work, shop and innovate.  

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Skift Research Global Travel Outlook 2024

Seth Borko, Varsha Arora, Pranavi Agarwal, Ashab Rizvi, Saniya Zanpure + Skift Team

Report Overview

The watchword for 2024 is normalization. We expect that overall travel industry revenue growth will decelerate from eye-watering double digits. But this slow-down is not a sign of weakness. Rather it is a sign of the continued strength of the travel industry as business finally gets back to normal. ​

Economic conditions appear poised to support further consumer spending. And even though there are some clouds on the horizon, shifts in consumer behavior that prioritize travel over other spending, should help deliver growth for our industry. Expect Asia to experience strong growth, as it finally stretches its legs after prolonged lockdowns. Capacity constraints are from over, but ironically can help support travel’s pricing power. We see room for growth from hotels to airlines.

This year our flagship piece includes more data than ever before. The core estimates you will find in this piece are for international trips out to 2028 and 2024 revenue forecasts for the hotel, airline, online travel, short-term rental, and cruise industry.​

On top of that we have included sector-specific analysis and  insights into how economics, demographics, and consumer trends will shape travel into 2024 and beyond. ​

We hope you enjoy! ​

What You'll Learn From This Report

• International Travel Forecast, 2023-2028​
• Online Travel Revenue and Gross Bookings Forecast, 2023-2025​
• Hotel Revenue Forecast, 2023-2025​
• Short-Term Rental Revenue Forecast, 2023-2025​
• Airline Passenger Revenue Forecast, 2023-2024​
• Economic and Demographic Factors Driving Travel in 2024​
• Key Consumer and Business Trends that Will Impact Travel

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Industry Voice: Navigating the future of business travel in 2024 and beyond

In a post-pandemic world, the business travel industry has experienced both rapid growth and significant challenges, catherine logan, regional senior vice president emea & apac at the global business travel association, tells itij, the path to recovery.

Global business travel spending is expected to surpass its pre-pandemic spending level of US$1.4 trillion in 2024 and is forecast to grow to nearly $1.8 trillion by 2027*.

Global business travel spend rebounded significantly faster in 2022 than was expected just a year ago. In 2022, global business travel spending rose 47 per cent to $1.03 trillion, with a further 32 per cent growth expected in 2023. These robust gains were fuelled by pent-up demand following the Covid-19 pandemic, more favourable global economic conditions, and recession risks that have yet to happen. The return of in-person meetings and events, and the recovery of some international business travel capacity and volumes, played pivotal roles in this growth.

Rising fuel prices, labour shortages and supply chain disruptions – exacerbated by surging demand – led to skyrocketing travel prices in 2022

However, this rebound came with pricing challenges. Rising fuel prices, labour shortages and supply chain disruptions – exacerbated by surging demand – led to skyrocketing travel prices in 2022. While global business travel and events costs are set to climb higher throughout the remainder of 2023 and into 2024, we anticipate this to be at a more moderate pace than was seen in 2022**.

Regional and industry variations

Business travel trends will continue to vary across regions and industries. Western Europe was the fastest-growing region globally in 2022, while North America and Latin America saw spending growth accelerate significantly.

Emerging Europe continues to lag in its recovery, challenged by the war in the Ukraine, while, regionally, Asia Pacific was the big laggard last year, given the delayed reopening of the Chinese economy.

Business travel spending recovery also continues to differ according to industry, with construction, education, and professional, scientific and technical activities showing the most resilience, and other sectors – notably wholesale trade, retail trade, and information and communication – showing the least resilience.

Factors influencing business travel in 2024

Despite the resilience of the global economy and positive outlook for business travel spend, several factors will impact the business travel landscape as we look ahead to 2024 and beyond:

Geopolitical tensions

The ongoing war in Ukraine remains a critical concern. Its implications on global stability, diplomatic relations and travel restrictions remain unknown.

Financial conditions

Persistent inflation in specific areas, including the cost of goods and services relevant to business travel, can further strain corporate budgets.

Sustainability initiatives

With a growing emphasis on environmental responsibility, businesses are expected to intensify sustainability initiatives and look for ways to further reduce carbon footprints. Business travel is an obvious focus area.

Technology transformation

Meeting technologies and remote work tools will continue to evolve, shaping the future of business meetings and events.

Business travel trends will continue to vary across regions and industries

The future of work

Remote working and the hybrid work environment continues to evolve as companies and employees look to find the right work-life balance. Digital nomads are now more mainstream and companies need to continually adapt their travel policies to accommodate the new way of working.

Blended travel

The rise of blended travel, combining business and leisure travel, is a growing trend since the pandemic as employees look to maximise their travel experiences again.

Balancing act ahead

Rising costs and pricing pressures will likely continue to be a significant factor in business travel for the foreseeable future with pricing fluctuations across industry verticals, business sectors and global regions. While business travel continues to rebound, there will be a delicate balancing act between demand, cost management and environmental, social and governance (ESG) concerns.

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9 Business Travel Trends to Watch in 2024

Business travel is making a steady comeback after experiencing a massive decline due to the pandemic. As we move into 2024, companies have the opportunity to reimagine corporate travel.

What will work trips look like for travelers? How will priorities and corporate travel preferences shift based on recent lessons? What will travel budgets look like? While uncertainties remain, industry experts are seeing several business travel trends that will define corporate travel in 2024 and beyond. 

How Have Business Travel Trends Evolved in Recent Years?

The landscape of  business travel  is transforming, reflecting changes in the global economy, workforce diversity, and a shift toward sustainability. Travel is becoming more global, inclusive, and technology-driven. Let's explore pivotal trends that have reshaped professional travel in the past.

• Increased Globalization : More professionals are traveling internationally, forging connections, attending global events, and exploring new markets, highlighting the interconnectedness of today's economy.
• Increased Diversity : As more women and minorities enter the workforce, the demographic of business travelers is diversifying, emphasizing the importance of inclusivity.
• More Sustainable Travel : Travelers are increasingly making environmentally conscious choices, opting for sustainable options like carbon offset flights and eco-friendly  types of hotel rooms .
• Use of Technology : Technology is essential to simplifying logistics, keeping travelers connected, and ensuring seamless work continuity.
• Growth of “Bleisure” Travel : The blend of business and leisure travel is growing, with professionals extending trips for leisure to maximize their time away.

9 Global Business Travel Trends of 2024

As the business world evolves, so does the way professionals travel. Here's a snapshot of the top trends shaping global business travel in 2024:

1. The Demand for Business Travel is Back

Business travel is expected to reach pre-pandemic levels by 2024 as more and more companies resume in-person meetings and events. According to  GBTA's Business Travel Index Outlook  report, business travel spending will reach $1.4 trillion in 2024 and nearly $1.8 trillion by 2027. 

In 2023, the industry has started to steady itself, primarily driven by the resurgence of face-to-face meetings and events and the gradual return of international business travel. Moving into 2024, we expect this momentum will continue to grow rapidly.

2. Bleisure Gets Bigger: Blending Business and Leisure Travel

Modern business travelers’ preferences are changing as they seek to combine business trips with leisure activities, such as extending their stay for a weekend getaway. 

This trend is largely driven by a demographic shift toward a younger workforce. Younger employees are increasingly seeking opportunities to combine work-related travel with leisure activities, reshaping corporate travel dynamics.

This "bleisure" trend offers traveling employees a sweet deal, with flexible travel schedules and a chance to unwind. This means guests are booking rooms for longer than their events will run, which is great for hotels.

3. Increased Focus on Sustainability

Organizations and business travelers are becoming more aware of their environmental impact and are looking for sustainable travel options, such as flying carbon offset and staying in eco-friendly  hotel room amenities . 

Some trends in sustainable business travel include: 

• Sustainable hotels
• Sustainable transportation options
• Paperless travel
• Updated sustainable travel policies
• Use of corporate travel sustainability reports

4. Increased Use of Technology

Technology is going to be incredibly important for business travel in the future, playing a role in the entire meetings and events process. 

Venue sourcing  platforms will help planners efficiently find and compare event spaces based on their needs without needing to conduct site visits for every option. Virtual reality and augmented reality (VR/AR) are expected to become more widely used in business travel in 2024 for virtual site visits and training programs.

Corporate travel management  platforms will optimize booking, provide traveler tracking, and give companies full visibility into their business travel spending. Further, businesses will rely heavily on end-to-end corporate travel technology for managing logistics, gaining insights, ensuring duty of care, and controlling costs.

AI and machine learning will power new  business travel solutions  that can analyze data to recommend hotels, predict flight delays, and more. 

The business travel industry will continue to become increasingly technology-driven, with innovative solutions for venue sourcing, travel management, trip planning, expense reporting, and more taking center stage.

5. Growth of Secondary Markets

One major business travel trend for 2024 will be growth into emerging markets, especially in Asia and Africa. 

The  global business travel market  is estimated to grow from $711.1 billion in 2021 to $2,997.2 billion by 2030, with a compound annual growth rate of 13.3%. Rapid expansion into emerging Asian and African markets will be a key driver propelling this growth. 

India, Indonesia, and other Asian countries are among emerging business travel destinations. To serve this demand, business travel services are ramping up offerings in these markets, and alternative accommodations like home rentals are seeing huge growth to support business travelers. 

Companies will need to adapt their travel programs and supplier partnerships to tap into these new regions.

6. Business Travelers Want Connectivity and Personalization

When it comes to technology, planners and travelers expect personalized experiences. In a tech-enabled world, guests of all ages want innovative and seamless digital solutions to simplify their travel and customize their stays.

This starts with the booking process. According to a  recent survey , 80% of travelers say it's essential to book trips fully online. To that end. hotels should enable guests to easily view and filter amenities and services that will be available upon arrival.

On the road, 76% of global travelers appreciate travel apps that reduce friction and stress. Another 80% say utilizing personal devices seamlessly with on-property technology is key, from Wi-Fi to streaming apps.

Beyond messaging, travelers want mobile technologies they use daily, like touchless payments from phones or smartwatches, or tapping credit cards. The ability to leverage their own devices and platforms provides the personalized experience and connectivity travelers now expect.

7. Loyalty Programs Must Evolve Beyond Points to Experiences

Business travelers in 2024 crave more than just practical perks from their trips; they seek enriching experiences and meaningful rewards. Loyalty programs need to offer real benefits, enhancing travel beyond basic upgrades and conveniences. 

Travelers want rewards that contribute to a memorable journey and strengthen their connection with the service provider. Practical benefits like late checkouts and room upgrades are expected; the true appeal lies in unique experiences, from exclusive events to complimentary services, adding a layer of luxury and personal value to their journeys.

8. Business Travel Will Shift to Purposeful, ROI-Focused Trips

In 2024, business travel will become more purposeful and ROI-focused. The days of casual briefcase trips are over. Now, every trip undergoes a careful evaluation of return on investment and return on expectation. Travel for clear ROI – like closing deals or contracts – will be more easily approved, while relationship-building trips will face more scrutiny.

With staffing shortages and supply chain issues, travel is less comfortable than before. Adding to this is the rising number of flight delays. All of this adds to travelers’ stress and threatens to undermine meeting experiences.

Particularly at hotels, staffing shortages can significantly impact the guest experience. In 2024, hotels will focus on empathy training and service to deliver exceptional experiences despite industry pressures. 

Overall, brands that invest in people and purpose of travel will give business travel a new lease on life. ROI and "return on experience" will determine corporate travel policies, and only trips that justify the time and cost will get the green light.

9. Wellness Will Become Critical for Business Travelers

In 2024, wellness will play a crucial role in business travel programs. The pandemic has made travelers and companies prioritize health and immunity more than ever, and services at every price point must meet this demand with authentic, holistic wellness offerings.

From destination activities to hotel amenities to safety protocols, wellness cannot be an afterthought. It must be woven into every aspect of the business trip experience.

While safety remains paramount, companies are also factoring the “pleasure” aspect of travel into policies, recognizing activities that support mental health and enjoyment are beneficial for employees. 

What Is the Future of Business Travel?

The future of business travel is bright. As the global economy settles and travel restrictions are lifted, we can expect to see even more people traveling for work. But business travel is not going to look the same as it did a few years ago or even in 2023.

Technology advancements in business travel will force hotels to use tools that reduce friction and streamline their travel operations while making their travel programs more sustainable.

Technology will define  business travel planning , with travelers looking for more flexible and personalized options. Travelers will want to be able to book flights and hotels that allow them to change their plans at the last minute without incurring high fees. They will also be looking for travel experiences that are tailored to their individual needs and preferences.

Overall, the future of corporate travel will be defined by sustainable, personalized, mobile-centric, global experiences that keep travelers' health, safety, and productivity top of mind. Hotels and travel providers that can offer these things to business travelers will be the ones who succeed in the years to come.

Hope Salvatori

Hope is a Senior Content Marketing Associate who has been with Cvent for more than two years. She has 8 years of experience producing content for corporations, small businesses, associations, nonprofits, and universities. As a content professional, she has created content for a wide range of industries, including meetings and events, government and defense, education, health, and more.

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Our solutions, solutions by role, marketing • aug 16, 2023, the future of corporate travel: 2024 trends and developments.

Leisure travel in the US and Europe has largely returned to pre-COVID levels. However, corporate travel has been slower to bounce back as decisions about business trips involve multiple factors, such as traveler safety, customer interest, and the value of attending events in a hybrid capacity.

In the latter half of 2022, the world saw a mix of positive and negative economic signals and a growing concern about a recession and layoffs in the tech sector. Moreover, issues in the banking sector compounded financial problems. The future of business travel was unclear. Now, the fog is lifting on the outlook for corporate business travel, taking a new shape with remote and hybrid workplaces being the new norm.

2023 Corporate Travel Trends and Developments

A recent Deloitte study on the future of corporate travel examines survey responses of 334 travel managers and executives worldwide. Specifically, the study finds several key trends and developments we’re interested in at Visiting Media.

• The reshaping of travel to account for social shifts, such as more flexible work, and corporate travel-specific shifts, such as higher expectations of flexible travel bookings.
• The strategic positioning of travel within companies, including managing budgets and balancing the value of in-person versus virtual meetings.
• Attitudes towards technology for different travel use cases are being monitored, as they may change the business travel landscape.
• The state of relations between travel buyers and suppliers, especially in contract negotiations.
• Supplier-led sustainability efforts have the potential to move the needle on bookings.

The Deloitte study found corporate travel is rebounding in the US and Europe, with spending projected to reach two-thirds of 2019 levels by the end of 2023. Likely, corporate travel is poised to recover to pre-pandemic levels by late 2024.

Travel Growth in 2023 and Beyond

International travel is expected to grow, with US respondents expecting international travel costs to jump from 21% in 2022 to 33% in 2023. Furthermore, live events are expected to be a significant driver of growth in 2023, with more than half of travel managers in the US and Europe expecting industry events to spur travel growth .

Specifically for the hospitality industry, technology like Visiting Media’s TrueTour™ has closed the gap between visiting and experiencing a property. In short, TrueTour allows you to interact with properties in ways not possible in person. Immersive 360° imagery and 3D modeling, as well as traditional photo, video, and Fly Through Media, showcase property like never before. Technology like TrueTour has reduced or eliminated the need to visit before booking your venue or scavenge through old photos before planning corporate travel. With many decision-makers involved in corporate travel and conference planning, the pre-planning and pre-event phase of corporate business travel has shifted to a remote approach to venue selection, RFP review, logistics coordination, and more.

Additionally, companies’ internal meetings and conferences are beginning to include more vendors, clients, and customers, ensuring business relations are present and enhanced by business travel that was once exclusively reserved for company business.

Future Shifts in Corporate Travel

Undoubtedly, the shift towards remote and hybrid work due to the pandemic has influenced the type of business trips taken. What may have been reserved exclusively for senior leadership strategy or high-performance incentives has now become essential for entire teams and workforces in a remote or hybrid environment.

The preference for hybrid and remote work models has led to a new necessity for monthly team meetings, quarterly summits, and annual large-scale gatherings. Visiting Media, as an example, is a fully distributed workforce. As such, leveraging business travel and events is essential to maintaining our company culture. Effectively, event and business travel outside the office is a standard part of doing business.

Working With Technology, Not Against It

Technology like TrueTour is perfectly positioned to assist with corporate travel planning as a return to a convenient experience vetting properties based anywhere in the world and planning large events with other distributed team members outside the office. The future shift of corporate travel isn’t one of “will it or will it not come back” or how technology will disrupt travel. Instead, the future shift is in how corporate travel will be enhanced by the relationships that workforces build with technology.

Are you interested in featuring Visiting Media at your brand’s next event? Contact us!

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Four Business Travel Trends and Forecasts Impacting Events in 2024

Your attendee travelers are eager to hit the road, but thanks in part to economic challenges like inflation, companies are cutting back on T&E. Those able to travel freely are combining remote work with longer leisure trips. Higher air fares are replacing the flight delay challenges of 2023. And amid it all, sustainability watchdogs are championing corporate policies that are focused on monitoring their organizations’ overall business travel emissions.

The good news for event marketers, however: Despite the year’s travel speed bumps and forecasts, many events and trade shows (CES 2024, included) are reporting they are back to pre-pandemic attendance levels. Here, we explore some of the latest facts and figures, and opportunities, surrounding business travel trends.

Related Stories:

• Zeiss Shares Five Ways to Make Sales Meetings More Fun
• Q&A: San Francisco Travel Association Discusses Event Safety and Business

82% of travelers say business travel is ‘very or moderately’ worthwhile in achieving business objectives.

The Global Business Travel Association’s annual report and forecast cites factors other than the pandemic’s influence for creating a “dynamic environment” in business travel spend and booking. “The pandemic’s overall influence on the direction of business travel is less important than other drivers, including macroeconomic volatility, sustainability initiatives among stakeholders throughout the business travel ecosystem and shifts in workplace trends,” its forecast for 2024 found.

AI could help companies analyze T&E on a ‘much more granular level.’

Last month, Mastercard wrote about technology’s impact on travel planning, citing tech platform CWT’s Global Business Travel Forecast for 2024, which shows a 3-percent rise in “average cost per attendee, per day for meetings and events,” and a 3.6 percent increase in hotel rates. The brand argues corporate travel teams could use AI tools for “better price predictions” and to better “tailor travel based on T&E policy, budget and employee preferences.”

Tip: AI may help event marketers better predict their own attendees’ budgetary needs and help plan or adjust event program schedules accordingly.

Corporate travel policies may start including air emissions tracking.

The Colorado Convention Center, for example, offers an Event Attendee GHG Emissions Calculator for attending a trade show, as well as ways to reduce them and offset them with carbon credits, while the global events team for Cisco Live partners with MeetGreen on an annual audit of sustainability efforts at its show (the 2023 show reached “Visionary” status). The team offers a guide on environmentally conscious travel to its show, as well.

‘Bleisure’ is influencing how your event attendees are booking travel.

Fact is, those that love to travel are ready to spread their wings. Luxury and experiential travel network Virtuoso predicts that, based on surveys of advisors, both travel demand and spend will increase this year. In its annual Luxe Report , “celebration travel” is among the post-pandemic trends that continue to impact the space. But beyond itchy feet, the hybrid work world is transforming how long, and why, travelers hit the road for business.

Deloitte’s 2024 Travel Industry Outlook calls attention to the “laptop lugger” effect of the hybrid workplace, finding that professionals intending to work on their longest trip of the holiday season “jumped” from 19 percent in 2022 to 34 percent in 2023. “It appears that this is more than a passing pandemic anomaly, but a more sustained modification to behavior, as many use flexible work arrangements to enable more travel,” the report states.

Idea: Brands like Zeiss are building more leisure time into their annual conferences. For its National Sales Meeting , Zeiss gave attendees the option to extend their business trip into the weekend while utilizing the event’s negotiated hotel room cost.

Photo credit: iStock/ Kobus Louw

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Travel Market Report: 2024 Outlook

What lies ahead for business travel in 2024? Find out with the 2024 Outlook edition of BCD Travel’s Market Report. In this edition, BCD’s Research & Intelligence team will bring you:

• A review of the world economy in 2024
• A focus on key travel risks
• A look at the current and future state of air travel, including airfare forecasts
• An outlook for hotel room rates in 2024
• Our perspective on ground transportation
• Eight sustainable travel trends to look out for in 2024

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• Dec 21, 2022

2023 Outlook: Business Travel Bounces Back

Corporate travel budgets are recovering to pre-covid levels, our new survey finds. see where companies are spending in the year ahead..

After grinding to a near halt during the COVID-19 pandemic, business trips—and profits for hotels and airlines catering to higher-paying corporate clients—are bouncing back even beyond pre-pandemic levels, per a recent survey from Morgan Stanley Research.

Despite higher airfares and room rates, the survey of 100 global corporate travel managers found that many respondents believe their company's travel expenditures are already back to pre-pandemic levels and will continue to grow. The biggest demand is coming from small companies, which means lower-cost airlines may benefit the more than their bigger peers.

“Travel budgets are expected to see a noticeable improvement in 2022, with 2023 nearly back to ‘normal,’” says Ravi Shanker, an equity analyst covering North American transportation.  “Most interesting is that nearly half of the respondents expect 2023 budgets to increase versus 2019 overall. And of those that expect an increase in budgets, the majority believe 2023 budgets will be between 6% to 10% higher than 2019.”

Overall travel budgets show an improvement over previous surveys, with 2023 budgets expected to be 98% of 2019 levels on average.

Survey Highlights

•   Smaller companies lead demand for corporate travel. More than two-thirds (68%) of companies with under $1 billion in annual revenue expect travel budgets to increase next year, versus just 41% of companies with annual revenues over $16 billion. Similarly, 32% of smaller companies said travel budgets had returned to pre-pandemic levels compared with 23% of big firms. “This trend could likely favor low-cost carriers, as smaller enterprises tend to be more localized and require less long-haul travel,” says Shanker. “However, the legacy carriers with strong corporate exposure should see gains as well.”  

Nearly a quarter of both large and small companies say their firms are already back to pre-COVID travel levels, and 34% anticipate a full recovery by the end of 2023.

ESG Rate of Change

Holiday budgets hit by inflation, seeing a peak for food prices.

•   Airfares are higher, but that’s not a drag on bookings. On average, corporate airfares are expected to be about 9% higher than pre-pandemic prices. “Clearly the expected increase in corporate airfares is not having a major impact on corporate travel as passenger volume is expected to be basically flat versus 2019,” says Shanker.
• Room rates will continue to rise, though not as fast as they have recently. As of this October, market room rates had spiked 20% to 25% over 2019. Next year they will rise even more, though by an average of just 8%, say respondents (9% in the U.S. and U.K.; 5% to 6% in Latin America, Asia and Africa).
• Hotels face economic and competitive headwinds. While overall travel budgets are growing, companies are cutting costs by trading down when it comes to accommodations. (Historically, budget hotels outperform upscale lodging in tough economic times.) Alternative sources of accommodation also threaten traditional hotels, with 31% of respondents saying they intend to use short-term rental services in the next year.
• Virtual meetings aren’t going away.  Almost 18% of corporate travel will be replaced with virtual meetings, falling slightly to 17% in 2024, suggesting a degree of permanence in the shift with companies recognizing the benefits of virtual meetings ranging from cost savings to lower carbon footprints. Expect companies providing collaboration software to gain from this shift.

For more Morgan Stanley Research insights and analysis on global travel, ask your Morgan Stanley representative or Financial Advisor for the full reports, “Global Corporate Travel Survey: Snapping Back" (Nov. 8, 2022) and “Global Corporate Travel Survey: 2023 Travel Budgets Nearly Back to 2019 Levels, but ~20% of Meetings Could Still Shift to Virtual” (Nov. 8. 2022). Morgan Stanley Research clients can access the reports directly here and here . Plus more Ideas from Morgan Stanley’s thought leaders.

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Yen clings to sharp gains after suspected intervention, Fed in focus

The yen held its line against the dollar on Tuesday after making sharp gains the previous day in moves that traders said were sparked by suspected intervention by Japanese authorities.

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Heathrow ups full-year passenger growth outlook after record start to 2024

H eathrow Airport has swung to a first quarter profit and upped its outlook for full-year passenger growth after notching up its busiest start to the year.

The group posted pre-tax profits of £189 million for the three months to March 31 – traditionally a quiet season for the sector – against losses of £60 million a year ago.

It said the group enjoyed a record-breaking quarter, with passenger numbers up 9.5% to 18.5 million.

Heathrow lifted its outlook for full-year passenger numbers as it expects the busiest ever summer holiday season in 2024, with 82.4 million people now expected to pass through the airport.

The group insisted it had a “robust operating plan in place to keep the airport running smoothly” as it faces the threat of “unnecessary industrial action”.

Trade union Unite said earlier this week that hundreds of workers at Heathrow Airport will strike in a dispute over outsourcing of jobs.

Unite said around 800 of its members will launch a week of strikes from May 7-13.

The union said workers in passenger services – who assist travellers to catch connecting flights, trolley operations, and security guards will have their jobs outsourced by June.

Heathrow has said there would be no job losses due to the overhaul of operations and was continuing talks with Unite over those affected by the move.

In its latest update, the group also urged the Government to “rethink anti-growth” policies, such as the tourist tax.

It said the move to scrap VAT-free shopping for tourists serves to “discourage international visitors from spending in the UK”, adding that “unnecessary” travel visas for transiting passengers “risk the UK’s global connectivity and Heathrow’s hub status”.

“A supportive policy environment for aviation would deliver a much-needed economic boost by encouraging people to visit, spend and do business here in the UK,” it added.

The group also announced some boardroom changes, with chief financial officer Javier Echave set to become chief operating officer on April 26 April, and chief commercial officer Ross Baker taking on the role of chief customer officer on May 1.

Mr Echave said: “As I close the chapter on eight years as CFO, I’m proud that Heathrow is on a strong financial footing with a clear flightpath ahead.

“On the horizon is Heathrow’s busiest summer yet with more passengers and destinations served than ever before.

“We’re ready to continue delivering.”

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US economic outlook April 2024

EY-Parthenon Chief Economist, Strategy and Transactions, Ernst & Young LLP

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A rosy economy, but not one without thorns

Outlook: Spring is here, and the US economy looks rosy. Economic activity remains resilient powered by consumers’ ongoing ability and willingness to spend, even if they are being more scrutinous in the face of high prices. A robust labor market along with positive real wage growth continues to provide a solid foundation to consumer outlays. Meanwhile, businesses are focusing on high return-on-investment projects and productivity-enhancing investments in an elevated cost and interest rate environment.  

Looking ahead, we see the economy gently cooling as slower labor demand, easing wage growth, stubborn inflation and tight credit conditions constrain private sector activity. In particular, we note that if inflation proves to be stickier than anticipated, the downside risk to the economy from reduced real income growth, a “higher for longer” Fed stance and tightening financial conditions would be notable.  

Overall, we have raised our real GDP growth forecast to 2.5% in 2024 on account of a stronger start to the year, but continue to expect growth will slow to 1.7% in 2025.  

Non-inflationary job growth. The strong 303,000 payrolls gain in March reinforced the Fed’s cautious approach toward rate cuts as some Fed officials see job growth as being too hot for comfort. Our take, however, is that the details of the jobs report offered welcome signs that labor demand and supply are better balanced with the labor force participation rate rebounding and wage growth easing. Notwithstanding strong immigration flows, we foresee softer labor market conditions with cooler hiring, targeted layoffs and continued moderation in wage growth. We expect job growth to slow below trend over the course of the year and see the unemployment rate rising to 4.1% by year-end.  

Consumers still spending. Consumers remain willing to spend on goods and services despite cost fatigue. Retail sales were stronger than expected in March, confirming that persistently high prices are not deterring consumers from spending. Still, with employment and household income growth gradually softening, prices remaining elevated, and interest rates likely to ease only gradually, we expect households will exercise more scrutiny with their outlays. We foresee consumer spending growth of 2.3% in 2024, supported by solid early-year momentum, following a 2.2% advance in 2023.  

Slow disinflation. Headline and core Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.4% month over month in March, surpassing consensus expectations for a third straight month. As a result, headline CPI inflation climbed 0.3 percentage point to 3.5% y/y (year over year) — the fastest rate since September 2023, while core inflation held steady at 3.8% y/y — its lowest level since April 2021. Rightly, or wrongly, the lack of downward momentum in core inflation in Q1 has made Fed officials increasingly uneasy about cutting rates. Still, while the short-term inflation dynamics indicate slower disinflation over the last three months, we anticipate renewed downward momentum in the coming months. We have revised our headline and core CPI inflation forecast up to 2.7% y/y and 2.9% y/y, respectively, in Q4 2024 while we anticipate the Fed’s favored inflation gauge, the deflator for personal consumption expenditures, to end the year around 2.5% y/y.  

Rate cuts on hold. Fed communication in recent weeks has had a decidedly hawkish lean. In the face of elevated inflation uncertainty, policymakers have indicated increased reticence to easing monetary policy soon. Fed Chair Jerome Powell — who until now had been willing to balance the hotter-than-expected Q1 inflation prints against the faster-than-expected disinflation momentum in H2 2023 — confirmed the broad sentiment pivot within the Fed. He noted that recent data had clearly not given the Fed greater confidence that inflation would sustainably return to 2% — a necessary condition for the onset of the easing cycle. With the Fed Chair indicating the Fed should allow restrictive policy further time to work, and a clear majority of policymakers favoring two or fewer rate cuts, we now expect only two 25 basis points rate cuts in 2024 (down from three previously) in July and November.  

Risks to monitor. The two downside risks that we noted last month have taken more prominence. Elevated tensions in the Middle East make an energy price shock more likely, which would bring a terrible combination of higher inflation and lower growth, while the risks of renewed supply chain stress remain significant. Second, the combination of a more hawkish Fed and fiscal sustainability concerns, could lead to a substantial tightening of US and global financial conditions leading to a retrenchment in private sector activity. The main upside risk stems from non-inflationary growth supported by a robust labor market and stronger productivity growth from efficiency improvements and generative AI. 

The views reflected in this article are the views of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of Ernst & Young LLP or other members of the global EY organization.

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