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The Drop in Panama Canal Traffic Due to a Severe Drought Could Cost up to $700 Million

A severe drought that began last year has forced authorities to slash ship crossings by 36% in the Panama Canal, one of the world’s most important trade routes

Agustin Herrera

A cargo ship waits near the Centennial Bridge for transit through the Panama Canal locks, in Panama City, Wednesday, Jan. 17, 2024. (AP Photo/Agustin Herrera)

PANAMA CITY (AP) — A severe drought that began last year has forced authorities to slash ship crossings by 36% in the Panama Canal, one of the world's most important trade routes.

The new cuts announced Wednesday by authorities in Panama are set to deal an even greater economic blow than previously expected.

Panama Canal Administrator Ricaurte Vásquez now estimates that dipping water levels could cost them between $500 million and $700 million in 2024, compared to previous estimates of $200 million.

One of the most severe droughts to ever hit the Central American nation has stirred chaos in the 50-mile (80-kilometer) maritime route, causing a traffic jam of vessels, casting doubts on the canal's reliability for international shipping and raising concerns about its affect on global trade.

“It’s vital that the country sends a message that we’re going to take this on and find a solution to this water problem,” Vásquez said.

The disruption of the major trade route between Asia and the United States comes at a precarious time. Attacks on commercial ships in the Red Sea by Yemen’s Houthi rebels have rerouted vessels away from the crucial corridor for consumer goods and energy supplies.

Photos You Should See - April 2024

The combination is having far-reaching effects on global trade by delaying shipments and raising transport costs. Some companies had planned to reroute to the Red Sea — a key route between Asia and Europe — to avoid delays at the Panama Canal, analysts say.

Now, that’s no longer an option for most.

On Wednesday, Vásquez said the canal authorities would cut daily ship crossings to 24, down from 38 a day in normal times last year. Vásquez added that in the first quarter of the fiscal year the passageway saw 20% less cargo and 791 fewer ships than the same period the year before.

It was a “significant reduction” for Panama, Vásquez admitted. But he said that more “efficient” water management and a jump in rainfall in November have at least ensured that water levels are high enough for 24 ships to pass daily until the end of April, the start of the next rainy season.

Canal authorities attributed the drought to the El Niño weather phenomenon and climate change, and warned it was urgent for Panama to seek new water sources for both the canal's operations and human consumption. The same lakes that fill the canal also provide water for more than 50% of the country of more than 4 million people.

“The water problem is a national problem, not just of the Canal,” Vásquez said. “We have to address this issue across the entire country.”

Copyright 2024 The  Associated Press . All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.

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A historic drought is causing a huge traffic jam at the Panama Canal

Ayesha Rascoe

NPR's Ayesha Rascoe talks to Adil Ashiq from the maritime intelligence firm MarineTraffic {sic} about how a historic drought is causing huge delays at the Panama Canal.

AYESHA RASCOE, HOST:

The Panama Canal is one of the world's major trade routes, but currently it's experiencing a huge traffic jam with dozens of ships backed up in both the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans. The cause? An historic drought in Panama, which has reduced the canal's water levels. Joining us to discuss the potential impact on global trade is Adil Ashiq, head of the Americas for the maritime intelligence firm MarineTraffic. Welcome to the show.

ADIL ASHIQ: Thank you, Ayesha. Happy to be here.

RASCOE: So can you explain how the drought in Panama is causing these delays? I mean, I think I'm right in saying that the canal uses three times as much water as New York City every day. Is that correct?

ASHIQ: Yes, that is correct. And I think one of the biggest facts of the canal that people don't realize is that it is not actually fed by ocean water. It's, in fact, fed by fresh water that's collected through lots of the rainfall that was dammed when the canal was built. So Panama is notoriously very wet - one of the wettest countries in the world, actually. So this is very unprecedented, that the rainfall amount is not replenishing the lake, which is known as the Gatun Lake. And so the levels aren't sustaining the volume of ships traveling in and out.

RASCOE: OK. And so does that mean that some of the ships are being forced to offload some of their goods or to be lighter?

ASHIQ: Yeah, no, great question. So when ships go from ocean to ocean, they have to go through a tier of locks. And so these locks - they will rise because Panama Canal actually is above sea level. So once the vessel is at the level of the canal itself, this makes it a navigation concern for a vessel. To combat this, vessels technically need to be lighter so that their draft, basically the amount of ship that's underwater, doesn't run aground.

RASCOE: And I would imagine that's money, if you have to transport less goods than you otherwise would. Are there also delays?

ASHIQ: Yes, definitely. If ships are carrying less cargo, then that's less trade flowing through the canal. And in terms of the traffic, the jams, the delays that we're actually seeing at the canal for both the Pacific and Atlantic are actually about 30% more vessels waiting versus the average that we've seen in the past.

RASCOE: So what can authorities do in Panama other than just hope for rain?

ASHIQ: So they're building additional reservoirs. They're trying to understand ways that they can reuse water, looking at ways to dam other areas to have a backup supply in case these conditions can worsen in the future. And we have to think 20 years, 50 years, 100 years down the line.

RASCOE: Are shipping companies looking for different routes, since they're having issues with the Panama Canal?

ASHIQ: Absolutely. So in terms of the type of shipping, Ayesha - so if we look at the container trade - container vessels haven't really been impacted much by delays because they generally will get priority. However, in terms of bulk trade - so lots of raw materials that are used in manufacturing or say, gasoline - this market specifically is starting to see those types of delays. And sometimes these vessels are loaded so heavy that they simply cannot transit the canal, and they have no choice but to sail around South America.

RASCOE: That's Adil Ashiq from the maritime intelligence firm MarineTraffic. Thank you so much for being with us.

ASHIQ: Thank you, Ayesha.

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Ship movements from Jan. 19 to Jan. 21, 2024.

Panama Canal Drought Slows Cargo Traffic

By Mira Rojanasakul

The lake that allows the Panama Canal to function recorded the lowest water level ever for the start of a dry season this year, which means that vastly fewer ships can pass through the canal. The extreme drought, exacerbated by an ongoing El Niño that is affecting Gatún Lake and the whole region appears likely to last into May.

The Panama Canal Authority has reduced daily traffic through the narrow corridor by nearly 40 percent compared with last year. Many ships have already diverted to longer ocean routes, which increases both costs and carbon emissions, while the global shipping company Maersk recently announced they will shift some of their cargo to rail .

Gatún Lake Water Levels

1965–2024

88 feet above sea level

is one year

2019–20

Each line is one year

Source: Panama Canal Authority

Note: Water levels reflect a seven-day rolling average.

Panama typically sees a dry season from January to May, but climate change has made rainfall patterns much less predictable. The result is that the increasingly severe droughts and extreme deluges can push canal infrastructure past its operational limits. Rising temperatures also evaporate a significant amount of moisture from the reservoir and its watershed.

In previous droughts, weight restrictions were imposed because heavier boats risk running aground in the shallower water. The canal typically handles an estimated 5 percent of seaborne trade , including 46 percent of the container traffic between the East Coast of the United States and Northeast Asia. But last summer, the Panama Canal Authority began taking the drastic measure of reducing traffic. Toll revenues have dropped by $100 million per month since October.

Each maneuver takes around 50 million gallons from its reservoirs to raise and lower vessels through the locks before spilling into the sea.

“The fact that the Panama Canal operates on freshwater is a major disadvantage compared to other water routes,” said Ricaurte Vásquez Morales, the administrator of the Panama Canal Authority, in a video address last month.

Gatún Lake’s Recent Decline

Current lake levels can’t meet the demand for ship traffic.

Current lake levels can’t meet the demand for ship traffic

Note: Water levels reflect one-year rolling average. Line indicates trend.

“This is certainly a low input year — one of the lowest, one of the driest on record,” said Joshua Tewksbury, the director of the Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute based in Panama.

But there are two variables when it comes to lake levels: what goes in and what goes out. And demands on water have grown significantly.

Panama’s population has quadrupled since the 1950s, and more than half the country relies on the canal’s reservoirs — Gatún Lake and the smaller Alajuela — for clean drinking water.

“Before it was a very small percentage of total water use, and now it's the equivalent of four or five lockages per day,” said Gloria Arrocha Paz, a meteorologist at the Panama Canal Authority.

Demand for global shipping has risen steadily since the canal first opened in 1914. Cutting through the narrow isthmus saves thousands of miles on trips that might otherwise need to route around the tip of South America or through the Red Sea, where Houthi attacks have thwarted traffic in recent months.

An expansion completed in 2016 added two new locks to accommodate significantly larger “neo-Panamax” ships, which are bigger, heavier and require deeper water to move through the corridor when fully laden. A previous Times investigation found that canal officials ignored warnings that they would need new sources of water in order for the expansion to succeed.

“All of the demands on that water have increased over the last hundred years and none of the inputs have,” said Dr. Tewksbury.

The Panama Canal Authority is also exploring longer term fixes.

The most prominent candidate may be a new reservoir on the Indio River, west of Gatún Lake. But any meaningful next steps will first need to contend with a standing law that prohibits the Panama Canal Authority from constructing reservoirs in watersheds beyond the one that feeds its existing lakes.

The Authority has also looked to Bayano Lake to the east, but tapping it would involve piping the water miles and miles away from a reservoir that also supplies Panama City with hydroelectricity.

Decades of deforestation have degraded the landscape’s potential for absorbing flood waters. The Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute has been working with the Panama Canal Authority on forest restoration projects and research into which planting strategies best support the forest’s “sponge effect” to mitigate wet and dry spells, as well as to deliver other climate and ecological benefits.

But it may not be enough to meet the pressing demand for cargo traffic through the Panama Canal. What’s happened this year has emphasized the urgency of obtaining more water sources, said Ms. Arrocha Paz. “Whatever can be done inside the watershed is not going to be enough for the next 50 years.”

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Panama Canal traffic cut by more than a third because of drought

A severe drought that began last year has forced authorities to slash ship crossings by 36% in the Panama Canal, a drop that could cost them between $500 million and $700 million in 2024. (Jan. 18)

A cargo ship waits near the Centennial Bridge for transit through the Panama Canal locks, in Panama City, Wednesday, Jan. 17, 2024. A severe drought that began last year has forced authorities to slash ship crossings by 36% in the Panama Canal, one of the world’s most important trade routes. (AP Photo/Agustin Herrera)

• Copy Link copied

Cargo ships wait in Panama Bay for transit through the Panama Canal, in Panama City, Wednesday, Jan. 17, 2024. A severe drought that began last year has forced authorities to slash ship crossings by 36% in the Panama Canal, one of the world’s most important trade routes. (AP Photo/Agustin Herrera)

A cargo ship is guided through the Panama Canal, in Panama City, Wednesday, Jan. 17, 2024. A severe drought that began last year has forced authorities to slash ship crossings by 36% in the Panama Canal, one of the world’s most important trade routes. (AP Photo/Agustin Herrera)

PANAMA CITY (AP) — A severe drought that began last year has forced authorities to slash ship crossings by 36% in the Panama Canal, one of the world’s most important trade routes.

The new cuts announced Wednesday by authorities in Panama are set to deal an even greater economic blow than previously expected.

Panama Canal Administrator Ricaurte Vásquez now estimates that dipping water levels could cost them between $500 million and $700 million in 2024, compared to previous estimates of $200 million.

One of the most severe droughts to ever hit the Central American nation has stirred chaos in the 50-mile (80-kilometer) maritime route, causing a traffic jam of vessels, casting doubts on the canal’s reliability for international shipping and raising concerns about its affect on global trade.

“It’s vital that the country sends a message that we’re going to take this on and find a solution to this water problem,” Vásquez said.

The disruption of the major trade route between Asia and the United States comes at a precarious time. Attacks on commercial ships in the Red Sea by Yemen’s Houthi rebels have rerouted vessels away from the crucial corridor for consumer goods and energy supplies.

The combination is having far-reaching effects on global trade by delaying shipments and raising transport costs. Some companies had planned to reroute to the Red Sea — a key route between Asia and Europe — to avoid delays at the Panama Canal, analysts say.

Now, that’s no longer an option for most.

On Wednesday, Vásquez said the canal authorities would cut daily ship crossings to 24, down from 38 a day in normal times last year. Vásquez added that in the first quarter of the fiscal year the passageway saw 20% less cargo and 791 fewer ships than the same period the year before.

It was a “significant reduction” for Panama, Vásquez admitted. But he said that more “efficient” water management and a jump in rainfall in November have at least ensured that water levels are high enough for 24 ships to pass daily until the end of April, the start of the next rainy season.

Canal authorities attributed the drought to the El Niño weather phenomenon and climate change, and warned it was urgent for Panama to seek new water sources for both the canal’s operations and human consumption. The same lakes that fill the canal also provide water for more than 50% of the country of more than 4 million people.

“The water problem is a national problem, not just of the Canal,” Vásquez said. “We have to address this issue across the entire country.”

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The Panama Canal averts a crisis for now—but at a cost to drinking water

by Peter Millard, Michael McDonald and Eric Roston, Bloomberg News

The Panama Canal has avoided the worst of a shipping crunch that threatened to upend the global economy—but at a cost to marine life and the Latin American country's supplies of drinking water.

After imposing strict limits on vessel traffic last year as drought left water levels languishing, the Panama Canal Authority is increasing the number of ships that can cross. Thanks to conservation measures , water levels fell just over a foot for the year through March 12, compared with three feet during the same period of 2023.

Those measures, though, come with side effects. The canal recycles water from locks that vessels pass through, instead of simply flushing it into the ocean. This reused water gets saltier, and some of it infiltrates Lake Gatún, an artificial lake that forms part of the channel and is also Panama's largest source of potable supply.

The Panama Canal's challenges highlight how combating climate change carries inevitable tradeoffs. As policymakers take action to limit the effects of global warming, there can be unintended consequences for the environment and the economy. And time is of the essence: Drought is already altering the world's trade flows, creating chokepoints last year on the Mississippi River in the U.S. and the Rhine in Europe.

This year, Panama has had roughly two-thirds of its normal rainfall, said Fred Ogden, a former University of Wyoming civil engineering professor who has done extensive work in the country. Upgrades to the canal have made the situation worse, because new locks opened in 2016 to accommodate bigger ships that require more water.

Climate change means "things are changing at a pace that is basically surprising everyone," Ogden said. The canal expansion has "increased the likelihood of drought restrictions. When you throw a drought on top of that—oh my gosh. What a mess."

The Panama Canal's low water levels and efforts to conserve what's left have made Lake Gatún more salty. Salinity is at the highest since 2020, when the Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute began collecting data, and still growing, said Steve Paton, the director of the institute's physical monitoring program.

The lake's salinity shot up after the new set of locks was inaugurated in 2016. Up until that point it was 0.05 parts per thousand, and with the increased trade flows it quickly rose and reached 0.35 parts per thousand four years ago. It's now nearing that level again and will probably hit or surpass it before the rainy season starts, Paton said.

The canal authority's chief hydrologist, Erick Córdoba, said during an interview in November that finding new sources of freshwater will be critical to ensuring Panama can meet growing demand from the population, shippers and local industry. One plan is to create a new reservoir at a river valley near Lake Gatún to supply additional water. The canal is also looking to invest in more rainwater collection to help reduce salinity in the lake, he said.

Under normal circumstances, the Panama Canal handles about 3% of the world's maritime trade volumes and 46% of containers moving from Northeast Asia to the U.S. East Coast. Bottlenecks at the canal can ripple throughout the global economy , particularly as attacks by Houthis in the Red Sea add to shipping disruptions.

Last year, the El Niño weather pattern led to one of the driest years on record for the Panama Canal and forced it to slash transit. But El Niño is now fading, which means the rainy season should hit in late April or May, allowing the canal to ease shipping limits. The authority will allow 27 vessels a day to transit by late March, up from the current 24 but still well below the pre-drought capacity of 38.

"The forced reduction" in vessels "is having the desired effect of lowering total water consumption," said Jorge Luis Quijano, a consultant and former chief executive officer of the canal authority. "However, it is difficult to predict if these favorable changes in weather will be enough to guarantee returning to 38 transits per day sometime later this year or next."

Quijano said the canal could possibly increase to 30 or 32 vessels a day after the dry season ends, and then progressively raise the limit further if rainfall is favorable. In a statement on March 11, the canal authority said it's monitoring water levels and will announce any further changes in a timely manner. It didn't respond to additional requests for comment.

Other observers are more optimistic. Volumes could return to normal in three to five months, said Julia Junnan Zhao, principal data scientist at Dun and Bradstreet, a global data and analytics provider.

Any increase in vessels through the canal will come as a relief to shippers, some of whom paid millions of dollars to jump the queue while others took longer, costlier routes around Africa or South America.

In the meantime, the threats to drinking water and marine life remain. The canal authority's strategy of recycling water could prompt marine species to start traveling between the Pacific and the Atlantic, disrupt coastal environments and even decimate fish stocks that communities along the Pacific and Caribbean rely on for food and tourism, Paton said.

Lionfish are an example of what can go wrong with invasive species. They are suspected to have escaped from aquariums along the U.S. East Coast during floods and storms, and now threaten native fish populations in the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean. A new saltwater corridor could wreak similar havoc on both sides of Panama.

Signs of that shift are already emerging. As rising salinity reduces the barrier between the oceans, researchers are seeing an increasing number of marine species in Lake Gatún, Paton said.

It's an example of the risks policymakers are grappling with as they confront the impact of climate change on freshwater supplies. Drought plagued regions all over the world last year, including the Americas, Africa and the Mediterranean.

The parched conditions have "given a big wake-up call to a lot of people," Ogden said. "The future does not look bright for the consistency of water resources that we've been able to rely on up until now."

2024 Bloomberg L.P. Distributed by Tribune Content Agency, LLC.

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More upheaval for global shipping as Panama Canal cuts traffic due to drought

Shipping companies already dealing with attacks on vessels in red sea.

Social Sharing

With shipping companies already dealing with disruptions in the Red Sea due to attacks on ships, word comes that another important trade route is being forced to curtail traffic.

A severe drought that began last year has forced authorities to slash ship crossings in the Panama Canal by 36 per cent.

The cuts announced Wednesday by authorities in Panama are set to deal an even greater economic blow than previously expected.

Panama Canal administrator Ricaurte Vasquez now estimates that dipping water levels could cost them between $500 million US and $700 million US in 2024, compared to previous estimates of $200 million US.

One of the most severe droughts to ever hit the Central American country has stirred chaos in the 80-kilometre route, causing a traffic jam of vessels, casting doubts on the canal's reliability for international shipping and raising concerns about its affect on global trade.

"It's vital that the country sends a message that we're going to take this on and find a solution to this water problem," Vasquez said.

The disruption of the major trade route between Asia and the United States comes at a precarious time. Attacks on commercial ships in the Red Sea by Yemen's Houthi rebels have rerouted vessels away from the crucial corridor for consumer goods and energy supplies.

How the Houthis defied the U.S. | About That

The combination is having far-reaching effects on global trade by delaying shipments and raising transport costs. Some companies had planned to reroute to the Red Sea — a key route between Asia and Europe — to avoid delays at the Panama Canal, analysts say.

Now, that's no longer an option for most.

On Wednesday, Vasquez said the canal authorities would cut daily ship crossings to 24, down from 38 a day in normal times last year. Vasquez added that in the first quarter of the fiscal year the passageway saw a 20 per cent drop in cargo and 791 fewer ships than the same period the year before.

It was a "significant reduction" for Panama, Vasquez said. But he said that more "efficient" water management and a jump in rainfall in November have at least ensured that water levels are high enough for 24 ships to pass daily until the end of April, the start of the next rainy season.

• Analysis Could Red Sea attacks reignite supply chain chaos?

Canal authorities attributed the drought to the El Niño weather phenomenon and climate change, and warned it was urgent for Panama to seek new water sources for both the canal's operations and human consumption. The same lakes that fill the canal also provide water for more than 50 per cent of the country of more than four million people.

"The water problem is a national problem, not just of the canal," Vasquez said. "We have to address this issue across the entire country."

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Shipping ‘traffic jam’ at Panama Canal: Why it’s not a crisis (yet)

Asia-us container trade largely unaffected by canal constraints.

The widespread headlines on Panama’s drought and the traffic jam of ships at the canal sound ominous. Authorities at the Panama Canal Authority (ACP) have called this year’s water shortages an “unprecedented challenge.”

Media coverage on the canal begets more coverage. Shipping journalists’ inboxes are now filling up with public-relations pitches offering clients’ expert opinions on “the historic drought set to disrupt global supply chains,” “how the Panama Canal gridlock is impacting the global supply chain,” “how the Panama Canal jam is putting cargo at risk,” “navigating the drought from the Panama Canal to retail shelves,” “looming potential shortages as the Panama Canal restrictions impact holiday stocks,” “how clogged supply chains could ruin this holiday season” ….

The reality is that Panama Canal supply chain constraints have yet to affect American consumers.

That could change if the drought persists. But the data doesn’t point to a crisis as of now, nor do comments from shipping executives and analysts. And going forward, the inherent flexibility of the supply chain allows for alternatives should Panama’s drought continue.

Container ships don’t see higher waiting time

The ACP has reduced daily transits as the maximum ship draft has declined to 44 feet. The intention is to lower average transits from 36 to 32 per day, paring transits via the original Panamax locks from 26 to 22 and maintaining transits via the newer, larger Neopanamax locks at 10 per day (container ships serving the U.S. use the Neopanamax locks).

There’s no evidence yet of the effect of the extended dry season in the ACP’s statistics on monthly average transits, which are driven by both demand and canal restrictions.

The average number of daily Neopanamax ships transiting last month — at a time when vessel queues were rising — was higher than in July 2022 and July 2021, at 9.9 per day. The average number of total ships transiting this July, 33.4, was on par (within one ship per day) with transits in the same month over the past two years.

ACP data does show a significant rise in the average waiting time in both July and August — but not for container ships.

As of Tuesday, the average waiting time in August for all ships transiting from the Pacific to the Atlantic was 11.5 days, up more than five-fold from June.

August’s waiting time from the Atlantic to the Pacific was 9.7 days, more than quadruple June’s average.

All of the increase was driven by higher waiting times for general cargo ships, tankers, dry bulk carriers, liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) carriers and other non-containerized vessels. Average waiting time for container ships has remained insignificant, at less than a day.

Canal authority says queue only 30% above normal

The queues of commercial ships waiting to transit at either entrance of the canal have garnered considerable media attention, harkening back to coverage of the container-ship pileup off Southern California in 2021 and 2022.

Ship-position data from MarineTraffic continued to show very visually impressive queues as of Wednesday.

However, when the ship-position data is filtered to show only container ships, the queue is very small, particularly given that some of these vessels may be waiting to call in Panamanian transshipment hubs, not waiting for canal transits.

The Wall Street Journal reported Friday that more than 200 vessels were waiting on either side of the waterway, based on ship-position data.

The ACP’s numbers are different — and considerably lower.

The official data on vessels scheduled to transit the canal showed 119 vessels waiting as of Wednesday, including 45 with reservations and 74 without. Under normal conditions, there are around 90 ships waiting, meaning that the current queue is only 30% higher than normal according to ACP data, not more than twice normal levels.

Canal delays due to lower water levels and other issues have been a regular occurrence over the years. Commodity data provider Kpler tracks the number of dry bulk vessels, tankers (including crude and product tankers) and LPG carriers waiting to transit the canal over time.

According to the latest Kpler data, current tanker queues are not abnormal and are lower than peak levels seen in spring 2022. Current LPG carrier queues are also not historically high and lower than peak levels seen in late 2022.

Dry bulk queues are the exception. The dry bulk queue has been unusually high this month. It hit 91 vessels in early August, according to Kpler data. However, that queue has since been cut almost in half. It was down to 55 bulkers as of Sunday, back in line with normal peak levels.

What canal constraints mean to US containerized imports

Container ships continue to transit the canal with little delay, although draft restrictions are requiring vessels to load fewer boxes than they are capable of carrying.

“It has an effect because it means you can load less on the ships,” said Rolf Habben Jansen, CEO of ocean carrier Hapag-Lloyd, on the company’s latest quarterly call. “The effect is not immaterial, but it’s also not huge.”

A carrier source told Platts, a division of S&P Global, that there are “no issues on the U.S. East Coast with Panama,” “no impact on schedules,” and no positive impact on freight rates at this time.

Judah Levine, head of research at Freightos (NASDAQ: CRGO ), said Wednesday: “Container ship traffic — most of which moves via scheduled transits booked well ahead of time and given priority over other vessels — has seen some delays and added costs but has not faced significant disruptions.”

Asia-East Coast spot rates should theoretically rise faster than Asia-West Coast spot rates if Panama Canal disruptions are impacting trans-Pacific container flows. They haven’t.

Between June 29 and Tuesday, the Freightos Baltic Daily Index (FBX) spot rate assessment for China to the West Coast rose 70%. The FBX China-East Coast index was up only 38%.

Container shipping supply chains possess flexibility to deal with Panama Canal constraints should they intensify in the future. To reduce capacity on transiting ships, ocean carriers can drop off boxes at Pacific hubs in Latin America, then transship those boxes to other vessels for canal transit.

Panama itself offers considerable flexibility in dealing with canal water issues. The Panama logistics complex is not just a canal, it’s a multimodal system with multiple container ports at both entrances to the waterway, and with rail and trucking links connecting the ports on either coast .

Cargo from Asia could also be redirected to the currently underutilized West Coast ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach, then shipped overland to eastern destinations, or sent to the East Coast via the Suez Canal. “Reports of shippers choosing to divert orders to the West Coast or via the Suez have been minimal,” said Levine.

What canal constraints mean to US energy and agriculture

Looking beyond container shipping, what does the Panama Canal drought mean to America’s energy and food commodity pricing? There are no risks to American consumers on this front, as America uses the canal for commodity exports, not imports.

Should the canal situation persist or worsen, outbound bulk commodity exports can reflow around the logjam (albeit at a higher cost in freight and time) in the same way global commodity trades have rerouted around Russia sanctions.

Panama originally envisioned the larger Neopanamax locks as a conduit for U.S. containerized imports from Asia. By the time the new locks finally debuted in 2016, Panama found it had two unexpected major customers beyond container lines: liquefied natural gas carriers and LPG tankers transporting U.S. propane.

America, once an LNG importer, became an exporter during the years the Neopanamax locks were being built. Concurrently, LPG carriers that formerly used the Cape of Good Hope route switched en masse to the shorter Panama Canal route as soon as the new locks opened.

Canal-related complications for U.S. LNG exports are much lower in 2023 due to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Most of America’s LNG exports now head to Europe as a result of the war , replacing Russian pipeline supply and sharply curtailing U.S. flows to Asia via the canal. Of the remaining cargoes to Asia, ship-position data shows that numerous tankers loaded with U.S. LNG have already switched to the Suez Canal and the Cape of Good Hope routes.

Meanwhile, LPG carriers “are starting to see large delays, whereby ships are deviating around the Cape [of Good Hope] if they go to Asia,” said Oeyvind Lindeman, CEO of LPG carrier owner Navigator Gas (NYSE: NVGS ), during a conference call on Aug. 16.

Longer voyage distances and vessels stuck in canal queues soak up transport capacity, pushing up spot LPG shipping rates . Panama Canal issues are “clearly a positive from a shipping capacity point of view,” said Lindeman.

Clarksons Securities put Wednesday’s average U.S. Gulf-Japan spot rate for very large gas carriers — the LPG vessels most affected by Panama Canal issues — at $86,800 per day, over triple rates at this time last year.

In the dry bulk market, the most significant Panama Canal impact for the U.S. will be on agribulk exports (soybeans, wheat, corn) to Asia. These cargoes transit the older Panamax locks due to ship-size restrictions at both U.S. loading ports and Asian discharge ports.

Panama Canal wait times are having a direct affect on dry bulk spot rates, depending on which way the queue is trending. According to price-reporting agency Argus, lower wait times in recent days have put downward pressure on U.S.-Asia dry bulk rates.

American agribulk exports to Asia traditionally surge in the fall . If canal conditions worsen in the coming months, U.S. exporters would face higher transport costs and voyage times for their cargoes.

That said, dry bulk rates are heavily affected by the Chinese economy . Chinese economic weakness has depressed overall dry bulk rates in 2023, so any canal-related rate increases this fall would be off a lower base. According to Clarksons Securities, Panamax spot rates averaged $13,600 per day on Wednesday, down 5% from the same time last year and down 60% from the same time in 2021. 

Click for more articles by Greg Miller  

Related articles:

• There’s more coal being shipped by sea than ever before
• Giant tankers full of American propane are making waves
• Shipping faces fallout as China’s post-COVID rebound falls flat
• How LNG shipping kept Europe’s wartime energy supply secure
• How war, shipping boom, China lockdowns impact Panama Canal
• How the Panama Canal traffic jam is affecting ocean shipping
• How Panama Canal navigated COVID, drought and trade war
• The Panama Connection: By truck and rail, not canal

Edgar Garay

Great article Mr Miller. I caught the “Chicken Little” article about this not to long ago. I’ve kept it on the radar but didn’t hear anything else. I finally had to ask Google. Yours was the singular match! Your writing is concise, informative, well researched if I may say so. Best of all you write in a way even a novice like me can understand. Thank you.

Allister Lobo

This was an interesting read. Do you have special access to 2023 data from the ACP? It doesn’t seem to be available on their website.

Comments are closed.

Greg Miller

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Drought-hit Panama Canal to ease traffic restrictions

T he number of ships allowed through the drought-hit Panama Canal each day will be increased thanks to signs of an improvement in water levels, authorities said Monday.

The interoceanic channel is a key transit point for international cargo, but low water levels blamed on climate change and the El Nino phenomenon last year led officials to limit the number of vessels using it.

The Panama Canal Authority said Monday that it had informed clients it would gradually allow up to 32 ships through per day, compared with a limit of 27 announced a month ago.

In 2022, it had welcomed an average of 39 ships a day.

"The management and administration of water has been very efficient," canal administrator Ricaurte Vasquez told AFP.

The arrival of the rainy season was also expected to help, he added.

Restrictions on the maximum draft (water depth) of ships passing through the largest locks will be increased in mid-June to 13.71 meters (45 feet), from 13.41, authorities said.

The century-old maritime channel, which usually handles about six percent of global maritime trade, uses rainwater stored in two artificial lakes.

The canal -- used mainly by customers from the United States, China and Japan -- has a system of locks to raise and lower ships.

For each vessel that passes through it, 200 million liters of fresh water are released into the sea.

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Princess Cruises Unveils Exclusive New Sanctuary Collection Aboard Sun Princess and Star Princess

New category offers unprecedented level of exclusivity and premium extras aboard newest ships from princess.

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FORT LAUDERDALE, Fla. (April 24, 2023) – Elevating the art of relaxation and serenity, Princess Cruises is introducing the exclusive, next-level Sanctuary Collection aboard Sun Princess and Star Princess, as these newest ships prepare to debut with this select, all-inclusive oasis in October 2024.

As the name suggests, guests reserving in the Sanctuary Collection enjoy exclusive access to the ship’s top deck retreat area, along with a host of additional and high-end amenities designed to enhance their voyage. These indulgences include exclusive private dining and relaxation areas, a luxurious stateroom experience, as well as the Princess Premier bundle to round out the all-inclusive allure of the Sanctuary experience. Princess Premier offerings include: 

• Premier Beverage Package (covering drinks up to $20, champagne by the glass, specialty coffees, smoothies and bottled water, as well as 25 percent off bottles of wine)
• Unlimited MedallionNet 2.0 with Fleetwide Starlink and 5G for up to 4 devices
• Daily crew appreciation (e.g., gratuities)
• Two nights of specialty dining
• Unlimited prix fixe meals at any casual dining location
• Free OceanNow Delivery Service Activation
• Complimentary Room Service
• "Green Lane" Express Boarding (Free Medallion device delivery included)
• Reserved seating in the Princess Theater
• Unlimited boutique fitness classes per voyage (e.g., Pure Barre, YogaSix, StretchLab)
• Unlimited premium crafted desserts
• Unlimited premium fresh juices
• Unlimited Digital Photo package / Princess Prizes

Aboard Sun Princess, the luxurious, spa-inspired, top-deck Sanctuary Club, is now reserved exclusively for Sanctuary Collection guests who access the private entry via their Princess Medallion. In the adults-only (16 and up) area, guests enjoy plush lounge furniture, private cabanas, pool and jacuzzi, attentive service, soothing music, refreshing beverages, and light fare. The Club also features exclusive programming, including sunrise yoga classes and sail-away receptions. 

Other Sanctuary Collection amenities include priority specialty restaurant reservations, and premium stateroom amenities. 

The new Sanctuary Collection aboard Sun Princess includes three levels of stateroom types – Signature Collection Suites (80), Mini Suites (123), and Premium Deluxe Balconies (12).

“Our new Sanctuary Collection offers guests those ultra-private, tucked away spaces that rival any high-end resort and surpasses the offerings of comparable cruise lines featuring similar ship-within-a-ship amenities,” said John Padgett, president of Princess Cruises. “With spacious and well-appointed accommodations, along with an array of premium extras and its exclusivity, our new Sanctuary Collection delivers the ultimate in access and indulgence to deliver an unparalleled experience.”

Sanctuary Collection staterooms go on sale today and are available starting with the Oct. 14, 2024 voyage on Sun Princess, and the Oct. 4, 2025 voyage on Star Princess. Guests who have booked as of April 23, 2024 and have already reserved Sanctuary Collection staterooms on either ship will receive the additional amenities outlined at no additional cost, excluding the Premier bundle.

The 177,500-ton, 4,300-guest Sun Princess offers an array of exciting new culinary and entertainment offerings, as well as luxurious staterooms and suites across a broad spectrum of categories. With the most balconies and sun decks on any Princess ship, guests can take in the sunshine and crystal-clear waters of the Mediterranean and Caribbean from the comfort of their stateroom. 

Additional information about Princess Cruises and the new Sanctuary Collection  is available through a professional travel advisor, by calling 1-800-PRINCESS (1-800-774-6237) or by visiting the company’s website at www.princess.com .

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About Princess Cruises

Princess Cruises is The Love Boat, the world’s most iconic cruise brand that delivers dream vacations to millions of guests every year in the most sought-after destinations on the largest ships that offer elite service personalization and simplicity customary of small, yacht-class ships. Well-appointed staterooms, world class dining, grand performances, award-winning casinos and entertainment, luxurious spas, imaginative experiences and boundless activities blend with exclusive Princess MedallionClass service to create meaningful connections and unforgettable moments in the most incredible settings in the world - the Caribbean, Alaska, Panama Canal, Mexican Riviera, Europe, South America, Australia/New Zealand, the South Pacific, Hawaii, Asia, Canada/New England, Antarctica, and World Cruises. The company is part of Carnival Corporation & plc (NYSE/LSE:CCL; NYSE:CUK).

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• Guided tour

River Cruise on Luxurious Radisson Boat

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Equipped with ice-breaking technology, these huge fancy yachts are the only river cruisers running all year around. The round trip journey takes two and a half hours and floats past all the big sights like the White House, Novodevichy monastery and the Kremlin. There’s a large open air observation deck up top, while the main body of the ship houses a restaurant with a dance floor for a romantic post dinner dance. For a particularly romantic experience take one of the evening boats and admire the bright lights of the city skyline at night.

The most relaxing and picturesque tour that Moscow can offer: a great way to see the city center and its main attractions. This is a perfect alternative to exploring the city by car, if you only have time to do sightseeing during weekday rush hours.

Your English-speaking guide is eager to share every bit of their knowledge about the surrounding landscape, the architecture and historical details.

We conduct Moscow river tour on Radisson Flotilla boats all year around!  It’s warm inside during winter months, while there’s air conditioning during hot summer days. You may also treat yourself to drinks, lunch or dinner on board (drinks and food are not included in tour price).

The cost of an excursion with a personal guide for 1 person

Quay at Radisson Collection Hotel

Government Headquarters ("the White House")

Kievsky Railway Central

Novodevichy Convent

Luzhniki Stadium

Academy of Sciences

Monument to Peter I

Cathedral of Christ the Saviour

Moscow Kremlin

St.Basil's Cathedral

Novospassky Monastery

U-turn and back to Quay at Radisson Royal Hotel

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• Excursion River Cruise on Luxurious Radisson Boat
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Russian National Ballet Show with Dinner

Private Borsch and Beef Stroganoff Cooking Class

Private Moscow City Tour and Scenic River Cruise

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Cruising the Moskva River: A short guide to boat trips in Russia’s capital

There’s hardly a better way to absorb Moscow’s atmosphere than on a ship sailing up and down the Moskva River. While complicated ticketing, loud music and chilling winds might dampen the anticipated fun, this checklist will help you to enjoy the scenic views and not fall into common tourist traps.

How to find the right boat?

There are plenty of boats and selecting the right one might be challenging. The size of the boat should be your main criteria.

Plenty of small boats cruise the Moskva River, and the most vivid one is this yellow Lay’s-branded boat. Everyone who has ever visited Moscow probably has seen it.

This option might leave a passenger disembarking partially deaf as the merciless Russian pop music blasts onboard. A free spirit, however, will find partying on such a vessel to be an unforgettable and authentic experience that’s almost a metaphor for life in modern Russia: too loud, and sometimes too welcoming. Tickets start at $13 (800 rubles) per person.

Bigger boats offer smoother sailing and tend to attract foreign visitors because of their distinct Soviet aura. Indeed, many of the older vessels must have seen better days. They are still afloat, however, and getting aboard is a unique ‘cultural’ experience. Sometimes the crew might offer lunch or dinner to passengers, but this option must be purchased with the ticket. Here is one such  option  offering dinner for $24 (1,490 rubles).

If you want to travel in style, consider Flotilla Radisson. These large, modern vessels are quite posh, with a cozy restaurant and an attentive crew at your service. Even though the selection of wines and food is modest, these vessels are still much better than other boats.

Surprisingly, the luxurious boats are priced rather modestly, and a single ticket goes for $17-$32 (1,100-2,000 rubles); also expect a reasonable restaurant bill on top.

How to buy tickets?

Women holding photos of ships promise huge discounts to “the young and beautiful,” and give personal invitations for river tours. They sound and look nice, but there’s a small catch: their ticket prices are usually more than those purchased online.

“We bought tickets from street hawkers for 900 rubles each, only to later discover that the other passengers bought their tickets twice as cheap!”  wrote  (in Russian) a disappointed Rostislav on a travel company website.

Nevertheless, buying from street hawkers has one considerable advantage: they personally escort you to the vessel so that you don’t waste time looking for the boat on your own.

Prices start at $13 (800 rubles) for one ride, and for an additional $6.5 (400 rubles) you can purchase an unlimited number of tours on the same boat on any given day.

Flotilla Radisson has official ticket offices at Gorky Park and Hotel Ukraine, but they’re often sold out.

Buying online is an option that might save some cash. Websites such as  this   offer considerable discounts for tickets sold online. On a busy Friday night an online purchase might be the only chance to get a ticket on a Flotilla Radisson boat.

This  website  (in Russian) offers multiple options for short river cruises in and around the city center, including offbeat options such as ‘disco cruises’ and ‘children cruises.’ This other  website  sells tickets online, but doesn’t have an English version. The interface is intuitive, however.

Buying tickets online has its bad points, however. The most common is confusing which pier you should go to and missing your river tour.

“I once bought tickets online to save with the discount that the website offered,” said Igor Shvarkin from Moscow. “The pier was initially marked as ‘Park Kultury,’ but when I arrived it wasn’t easy to find my boat because there were too many there. My guests had to walk a considerable distance before I finally found the vessel that accepted my tickets purchased online,” said the man.

There are two main boarding piers in the city center:  Hotel Ukraine  and  Park Kultury . Always take note of your particular berth when buying tickets online.

Where to sit onboard?

Even on a warm day, the headwind might be chilly for passengers on deck. Make sure you have warm clothes, or that the crew has blankets ready upon request.

The glass-encased hold makes the tour much more comfortable, but not at the expense of having an enjoyable experience.

Getting off the boat requires preparation as well. Ideally, you should be able to disembark on any pier along the way. In reality, passengers never know where the boat’s captain will make the next stop. Street hawkers often tell passengers in advance where they’ll be able to disembark. If you buy tickets online then you’ll have to research it yourself.

There’s a chance that the captain won’t make any stops at all and will take you back to where the tour began, which is the case with Flotilla Radisson. The safest option is to automatically expect that you’ll return to the pier where you started.

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