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Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd NCLH

Company report, norwegian continues to benefit from consumers' appetite for travel.

Coronavirus-induced changes in consumer behavior with regard to travel had altered the economic performance of Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings, affecting its ability to generate excess economic rents. However, as consumers returned to cruising after the 15-month sailing halt that ended in July 2021, they regained their appetite for travel, bolstered by the value proposition the holiday provides. With ships fully deployed at historical occupancy levels, pricing surpassed prepandemic levels in 2023, and pricing momentum has persisted into 2024. While Norwegian could intermittently see pricing competition in periods of macroeconomic distress, we believe its freestyle offering and attractive itineraries will keep passengers engaged with the brand. On the cost side, while higher oil prices and unfavorable foreign exchange could elevate costs at times, we expect management will focus on extracting further efficiencies as the business continues to scale. Over time, we expect both pricing and costs to normalize at low-single-digit rates.

Price vs Fair Value

Bulls say, bears say.

As Norwegian is smaller than its North American cruise peers, it has the ability to deploy its assets nimbly as cruising demand rises, allowing for strategic pricing tactics.

Weakness in consumer spending spurred by an economic downturn could affect discretionary spending, leading pricing to soften and lower onboard spending.

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Cruise operator viking to valued at up to $10.7 billion after ipo terms set, norwegian cruise line holdings to hold conference call on first quarter 2024 financial results, norwegian cruise line unveils all-new culinary experiences to debut aboard norwegian aqua, oceania cruises announces new 2025-2026 tropics and exotics collection, norwegian cruise line holdings unveils bold new vision for the future with strategic long term fleet expansion and enhanced private island development, oceania cruises announces giada de laurentiis as brand and culinary ambassador, oceania cruises offers free pre-cruise hotel stay on a range of sailings in 2024 and 2025, trading information, key statistics, company profile, competitors.

• Carnival Corp CCL
• Royal Caribbean Group RCL

Financial Strength

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Norwegian Cruise Line (NCLH) Earnings Expected to Grow: What to Know Ahead of Next Week's Release

Wall Street expects a year-over-year increase in earnings on higher revenues when Norwegian Cruise Line ( NCLH Quick Quote NCLH - Free Report ) reports results for the quarter ended March 2024. While this widely-known consensus outlook is important in gauging the company's earnings picture, a powerful factor that could impact its near-term stock price is how the actual results compare to these estimates.

The stock might move higher if these key numbers top expectations in the upcoming earnings report, which is expected to be released on May 1. On the other hand, if they miss, the stock may move lower.

While management's discussion of business conditions on the earnings call will mostly determine the sustainability of the immediate price change and future earnings expectations, it's worth having a handicapping insight into the odds of a positive EPS surprise.

Zacks Consensus Estimate

This cruise operator is expected to post quarterly earnings of $0.12 per share in its upcoming report, which represents a year-over-year change of +140%.

Revenues are expected to be $2.24 billion, up 22.7% from the year-ago quarter.

Estimate Revisions Trend

The consensus EPS estimate for the quarter has remained unchanged over the last 30 days. This is essentially a reflection of how the covering analysts have collectively reassessed their initial estimates over this period.

Investors should keep in mind that an aggregate change may not always reflect the direction of estimate revisions by each of the covering analysts.

Earnings Whisper

Estimate revisions ahead of a company's earnings release offer clues to the business conditions for the period whose results are coming out. Our proprietary surprise prediction model -- the Zacks Earnings ESP (Expected Surprise Prediction) -- has this insight at its core.

The Zacks Earnings ESP compares the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the quarter; the Most Accurate Estimate is a more recent version of the Zacks Consensus EPS estimate. The idea here is that analysts revising their estimates right before an earnings release have the latest information, which could potentially be more accurate than what they and others contributing to the consensus had predicted earlier.

Thus, a positive or negative Earnings ESP reading theoretically indicates the likely deviation of the actual earnings from the consensus estimate. However, the model's predictive power is significant for positive ESP readings only.

A positive Earnings ESP is a strong predictor of an earnings beat, particularly when combined with a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold). Our research shows that stocks with this combination produce a positive surprise nearly 70% of the time , and a solid Zacks Rank actually increases the predictive power of Earnings ESP.

Please note that a negative Earnings ESP reading is not indicative of an earnings miss. Our research shows that it is difficult to predict an earnings beat with any degree of confidence for stocks with negative Earnings ESP readings and/or Zacks Rank of 4 (Sell) or 5 (Strong Sell).

How Have the Numbers Shaped Up for Norwegian Cruise Line?

For Norwegian Cruise Line, the Most Accurate Estimate is lower than the Zacks Consensus Estimate, suggesting that analysts have recently become bearish on the company's earnings prospects. This has resulted in an Earnings ESP of -9.41%.

On the other hand, the stock currently carries a Zacks Rank of #3.

So, this combination makes it difficult to conclusively predict that Norwegian Cruise Line will beat the consensus EPS estimate.

Does Earnings Surprise History Hold Any Clue?

Analysts often consider to what extent a company has been able to match consensus estimates in the past while calculating their estimates for its future earnings. So, it's worth taking a look at the surprise history for gauging its influence on the upcoming number.

For the last reported quarter, it was expected that Norwegian Cruise Line would post a loss of $0.13 per share when it actually produced a loss of $0.18, delivering a surprise of -38.46%.

Over the last four quarters, the company has beaten consensus EPS estimates three times.

Bottom Line

An earnings beat or miss may not be the sole basis for a stock moving higher or lower. Many stocks end up losing ground despite an earnings beat due to other factors that disappoint investors. Similarly, unforeseen catalysts help a number of stocks gain despite an earnings miss.

That said, betting on stocks that are expected to beat earnings expectations does increase the odds of success. This is why it's worth checking a company's Earnings ESP and Zacks Rank ahead of its quarterly release. Make sure to utilize our Earnings ESP Filter to uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they've reported.

Norwegian Cruise Line doesn't appear a compelling earnings-beat candidate. However, investors should pay attention to other factors too for betting on this stock or staying away from it ahead of its earnings release.

Expected Results of an Industry Player

Caesars Entertainment ( CZR Quick Quote CZR - Free Report ) , another stock in the Zacks Leisure and Recreation Services industry, is expected to report earnings per share of $0.02 for the quarter ended March 2024. This estimate points to a year-over-year change of -77.8%. Revenues for the quarter are expected to be $2.83 billion, down 0% from the year-ago quarter.

The consensus EPS estimate for Caesars Entertainment has been revised 3.1% higher over the last 30 days to the current level. However, a lower Most Accurate Estimate has resulted in an Earnings ESP of -955.60%.

When combined with a Zacks Rank of #3 (Hold), this Earnings ESP makes it difficult to conclusively predict that Caesars Entertainment will beat the consensus EPS estimate. Over the last four quarters, the company surpassed consensus EPS estimates three times.

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Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings to Hold Conference Call on First Quarter 2024 Financial Results

MIAMI, April 17, 2024 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. (NYSE: NCLH) (together with NCL Corporation Ltd., “Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings” or the “Company”) announced today it will report first quarter 2024 financial results on Wednesday, May 1, 2024 at 7:30 a.m. Eastern Time with a conference call and webcast to discuss results at 10:00 a.m. Eastern Time.

The conference call will be webcast via the Company’s Investor Relations website, https://www.nclhltd.com/investors. A replay of the webcast will be available here on the Company’s website for 30 days following the call.

About Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd.

Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. (NYSE: NCLH) is a leading global cruise company that operates Norwegian Cruise Line, Oceania Cruises and Regent Seven Seas Cruises. With a combined fleet of 32 ships and approximately 66,500 berths, NCLH offers itineraries to approximately 700 destinations worldwide. NCLH expects to add 13 additional ships across its three brands through 2036, which will add approximately 41,000 berths to its fleet. To learn more, visit www.nclhltd.com.

Norwegian Cruise Line News MORE

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