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Ukraine war latest: Kharkiv governor sounds alarm as army locked in 'fierce' battles near border

Fierce fighting is taking place in Ukraine's Kharkiv region, with Moscow claiming to have seized nine border villages in the area. And in Moscow, Vladimir Putin has replaced a long-time ally. Submit your question on the war for our experts below.

Monday 13 May 2024 10:29, UK

• The big picture: Everything you need to know as war enters a new week
• Russia claims control of nine villages after shock advance
• Threat of fighting spreading, says Kharkiv governor  
• Moscow forces walked 'freely' across border, Ukrainian soldier claims
• Moscow 'reaping benefits' of West's policy against striking Russia - and more sectors of frontline 'will be exploited'
• Eyewitness: Deborah Haynes reports from town 'flattened' in offensive
• Analysis:  Putin's 'baffling' reshuffle explained
• Who is Andrei Belousov, Putin's new pick for defence minister?
• Live reporting by  Brad Young

Ask a question or make a comment

Away from the frontline and Russia's internal politics, Georgians have been protesting against what they say are Russian-style, autocratic laws.

Non-violent protests were attacked by police snatch squads, seizing demonstrators and beating them.

International affairs editor Dominic Waghorn reports from the crowd... 

The governor of the Kharkiv region has said there is a threat of fighting spreading to other settlements.

Russian forces have been attacking the border in small groups in an attempt to stretch the frontline, Oleh Syniehubov said.

The situation was difficult, he added.

On Friday, Russia launched an incursion across Ukraine's northeastern border into the Kharkiv region.

Mr Syniehubov has described "massive shelling" of the town of Vovchansk, with attacks also on other Kharkiv settlements like Lukyantsi and Bugruvatkata.

Some 5,762 people have been evacuated, he said.

Russia's acting foreign minister has said Russia is prepared if the West wants to fight for Ukraine on the battlefield.

Sergei Lavrov was quoted by the state-run RIA news agency, following a similar warning from the Kremlin last week.

Moscow said that sending NATO troops into Ukraine would potentially be extremely dangerous, and it was closely watching a Ukrainian petition calling for such an intervention. 

You may notice Mr Lavrov, who has been in post since 2018, is operating under the title "acting" foreign minister.

This is because, by law, Russian government ministers resign just before a president is sworn in and remain "acting" until their appointment is approved by parliament - which is all but guaranteed.

Vladimir Putin's decision to sack two key government figures may appear baffling, but it is driven by perceptions of the defence ministry and the economics of war, says Moscow correspondent Ivor Bennett .

The Russian president has removed defence minister Sergei Shoigu and security council chief Nikolai Patrushev from their posts.

"Both were very close Putin aides, they had been in post a very long time and this comes at a time when Russia has the upper hand on the battlefield - that's why it is so shocking, so baffling, so why did Putin do it?" says Bennett.

He explains the Kremlin painted the move as getting tighter control on defence spending - which has ballooned to 6.6% of GDP.

"There is a perception that the ministry of defence under Shoigu has not been as frugal as it could be, to say the least.

"There are also allegations of corruption."

One of Mr Shoigu's deputies was recently arrested on corruption charges, so his sacking is in part about "fixing those perceptions".

His replacement, Andrei Belousov, is an economist, suggesting there is also a practical purpose to the reshuffle.

"That tells you that Russia, right now, wants to ensure that the military-industrial complex is operating as efficiently as possible," Bennett says.

"The entire economy here is geared around the war, geared around the military.

"Putin clearly wants to make sure Russia can continue to fight his war for as long as he wants."

Russia's northeastern incursion on Friday has so far been blamed on poor fortifications and delays to Western weapons, but military experts have come to a different conclusion. 

The Institute for the Study of War says it was largely a consequence of the West's restrictions on Ukraine using donated weapons to strike military targets in Russia.

Ukraine would "greatly benefit" from using long-ranged systems to hit Russian logistics and routes supplying its Kharkiv offensive, the US think tank said.

"Russian forces are reaping the benefits of the West's long-term restriction on Ukraine using Western-provided weapons to strike legitimate military targets on Russian territory - territory that Russian forces now depend on to sustain their offensive operations in northern Kharkiv."

Lord Cameron, the foreign secretary, recently gave the go-ahead for Ukraine to use UK-supplied weapons to hit Russia, but this was "insufficient" and "came too late" to have an impact on the border, the ISW said.

Nor are Ukrainian drone operations effective enough to undermine the offensive.

The tacit Western policy has been encouraged by a Kremlin information campaign threatening Western nations, the ISW said.

The thinktank said the Kremlin will continue with the same rhetoric to "inhibit Ukraine's ability to use all its available weapons to defend against the current Russian offensive operations in northern Kharkiv Oblast, forcing Ukraine to allocate other resources to a less effective defence and creating opportunities for Russian forces on other sectors of the front to exploit".

Latest from the ground

Russian forces have been attempting to isolate Vovchansk by "increasingly targeting bridges" and by attempting to encircle the town via three adjacent settlements - Buhruvatka, Starytsya, and Izbytske - to cut Ukrainian lines of communication, the ISW said.

By Deborah Haynes , security and defence editor

Russia was able to open a new front in northeastern Ukraine because of delays in the supply of Western weapons to the frontline, the head of the region under attack has claimed.

Oleh Syniehubov, the governor of Kharkiv, rejected criticism about an alleged lack of Ukrainian fortifications on a long border shared with Russia, insisting that defences are strong - even as Russian forces capture multiple villages and fierce fighting rages.

But a Ukrainian soldier has taken the unusual step of publicly criticising Ukraine's preparations to stop Russia from pushing into the northeast of the country - a threat that commanders had been anticipating ever since they repelled a first invasion two years ago.

Denys, who is fighting to counter the latest offensive, said in a post on Facebook that he was speaking out because "we could die and no one will hear the truth".

He wrote: "The first line of fortifications and mines simply did not exist."

Describing what happened when Russian ground troops, backed by airstrikes and artillery, simply walked through the border area on Friday, he wrote: "The enemy freely entered the grey zone along the entire cordon line, which in principle should not have been grey!"

Read on here...

Meanwhile, in Georgia, security forces have been cracking down on protests against laws demonstrators believe will lead them back into the embrace of Moscow.

International affairs editor Dominic Waghorn has this eyewitness report...

The Georgian security forces moved in shortly after dawn. Phalanxes of masked men sweeping through streets and parks outside parliament.  

They kettled protesters with force. We were caught in the crush as they squeezed the crowd. A woman screamed as she was pinned to a post by the press of people.  

Demonstrators had ringed the parliament building all night, intent on preventing access to MPs to block the passage of Putinesque laws they believed put their country on the path to dictatorship and back in the embrace of Moscow.

"They want to drag us back to autocracy to the country they occupied us for too many years," one protester told Sky News. 

The police succeeded in clearing one entrance to parliament.

Flank after flank of interior ministry security forces, backed by helmeted riot police and water cannon trucks, are now in a tense standoff with a multicoloured sea of protesters on the corner of the parliament building.  

The blue and yellow colours of Ukraine and the European Union jostle with the red and white of Georgia's national colours. 

The protesters have been peaceful but the police have not. They have unleashed snatch squads barrelling into the crowd.  

Sky News witnessed as masked security forces seized one man raining blows on his unprotected head.

The protesters have failed in their effort to cut off parliament from MPs but their numbers are swelling. 

"We will not give up," one woman told us. 

"We cannot allow them to take our freedom."

 Pictures taken over the weekend after the heavy Russian bombardment of Vovchansk are emerging.

Fires could be seen raging in the town, three miles from the northeastern border, near where Russia launched a fresh incursion.

Some of the thousands of civilians evacuating the city were photographed by the Associated Press.

The incursion north of Kharkiv is a "significant development" in the war, says security and defence editor Deborah Haynes.

Vovchansk, three miles from the border, has come under "horrific bombardment", leaving the centre of the town "completely in ruins".

She described seeing a two-story residential block in flames.

A mass evacuation program has been working to move thousands of civilians away from the area, she said.

Ukraine has moved its forces to try to repel the assault, but "Russia has come at this hard".

"The governor told me that he thinks Russia is exploiting the fact that Ukraine has been left waiting for a Western resupply of weapons.

"But a Ukrainian soldier has taken the unusual step of questioning where the fortifications were that were meant to be protecting this part of Ukraine, given everybody knew the potential of a Russian assault was very real."

Putin's reshuffle

Meanwhile, Vladimir Putin is replacing defence minister Sergei Shoigu after nearly 12 years in the post.

Haynes said Mr Shoigu "has been a key figure" in government and it is "quite interesting" that, at the same time as Russia is gaining ground, Mr Putin is changing his wartime cabinet.

Mr Shoigu's replacement has an economics background, reflecting that the Russian economy is on a war footing, said Haynes.

"There is a huge focus on expanding the industrial capacity to build weapons and that really is what is going to win on the ground: Which side is going to be able to keep arming themselves the longest."

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Analysis: Gazprom Loss Shows Struggle to Fill EU Gas Sales Gap With China

A 3D printed natural gas pipeline is placed in front of displayed Gazprom logo and Russian flag in this illustration taken February 8, 2022. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/Files

By Vladimir Soldatkin

MOSCOW (Reuters) - Kremlin-owned energy kingpin Gazprom, once Russia's most profitable company, could face a long period of poor performance as it struggles to fill the gap of lost European gas sales with its domestic market and Chinese exports.

The company recently announced an annual net loss of $7 billion, its first since 1999, following a steep decline in trade with Europe.

Gazprom's troubles reflect the deep impact the European sanctions have had on Russia's gas industry, as well as the limitations of Moscow's growing partnership with China.

The impact of international sanctions on oil exports has been easier for Moscow to absorb because Russia has been able to redirect sea-borne oil exports to other buyers.

Gazprom relied on Europe as its largest sales market until 2022, when Russia's conflict with Ukraine prompted the EU to cut Gazprom gas imports.

Russia supplied a total of around 63.8 billion cubic metres (bcm) of gas to Europe by various routes in 2022, according to Gazprom data and Reuters calculations. The volume decreased further, by 55.6%, to 28.3 bcm last year.

That's compared to a peak of 200.8 bcm Gazprom pumped in 2018 to the EU and other countries, such as Turkey.

Mysterious blasts at Nord Stream undersea gas pipelines from Russia to Germany in September 2022 also significantly undermined Russian gas trade with Europe.

Russia has turned to China, seeking to boost its pipeline gas sales to 100 bcm a year by 2030. Gazprom started pipeline gas supplies to China via the Power of Siberia in the end of 2019.

It plans to reach the 38 bcm annual capacity of Power of Siberia by the end of this year, while Moscow and Beijing also agreed in 2022 about exports of 10 bcm from the Pacific island of Sakhalin.

Russia's biggest hope is the Power of Siberia 2 pipeline via Mongolia, which is planned to export 50 bcm per year. But that has hit some pitfalls due to the lack of agreement over pricing and other issues.

"While Gazprom will see some additional export revenues when all those pipelines will be up and running, it will never be able to offset completely the business it has lost to Europe," Kateryna Filippenko, a research director on gas and LNG at Wood Mackenzie, said.

CHINESE PIPEDREAM?

Russia has also struggled so far to establish a gas trading centre in Turkey, an idea first floated by President Vladimir Putin in October 2022. No significant development has been reported since.

Even if Gazprom can get its pipeline supply to China up and running, sales revenues will be much lower than from Europe.

According to Moscow-based BCS brokerage, Gazprom's revenue from gas sales to Europe in 2015-2019 averaged at $3.3 billion per month thanks to monthly supplies of 15.5 bcm.

Taking into account a price of $286.9 per 1,000 cubic metres, as reported by the Russian economy ministry, and Gazprom's gas exports of 22.7 bcm last year, the total value of the company's gas sold to China could have reach $6.5 billion for the whole of 2023.

Gazprom did not reveal its revenue from sales to Europe or China for 2023 separately.

Dr Michal Meidan, head of China Energy Research at Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, said China is unlikely to replace Europe for Russia as a highly profitable gas export market.

"China gives Russia an outlet but at much lower prices and revenue than Europe," she said.

In 2023, Russian pipeline gas was sold at $6.6 per million British thermal units (mmBtu) to China and slightly lower than that in the first quarter 2024 at $6.4/mmBtu.

That's compared to an average price of Russian gas in Europe of $12.9/mmBtu last year.

According to a document seen by Reuters last month, Russia expects its gas price for China to continue gradually declining in next four years, while a worst-case scenario does not rule out a 45% fall to $156.7 per 1,000 cubic metres (around $4.4 per mmBtu) in 2027 versus 2023.

It didn't say what might drive prices down, but Russia is facing rivalry from other pipeline gas suppliers to China, such as Turkmenistan, as well as sea-borne liquefied natural gas.

The financials of Gazprom, which also include its oil and power units, showed that the revenue from the natural gas business more than halved last year, to just over 3.1 trillion roubles, while oil and gas condensate sales amounted to 4.1 trillion roubles, up 4.3%, according to BCS brokerage.

Alexei Belogoriyev of Moscow-based Institute for Energy and Finance said it would be impossible for Gazprom to restore profitability relying solely on its gas business.

He said strategic shift to production and export of ammonia, methanol and other gas processing products for Gazprom is possible, but it will not give a quick return.

"At the same time, the prospects for the Power of Siberia 2 remain vague: China most likely won't need for so much additional imports in 2030s due to the likely slowdown in demand growth and high domestic gas production rates," he said.

(Reporting by Vladimir Soldatkin; additional reporting by Oksana Kobzeva in Moscow and Nina Chestney in London; editing by Nina Chestney and David Evans)

Copyright 2024 Thomson Reuters .

Tags: Ukraine , Turkey , Russia , European Union , Middle East , international trade , Europe , natural gas

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